Aaron Bergman's tweets, June 2024
Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in June 2024 and has not deleted: 454 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's.
This page is one month of the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets, which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: May 2024. Next month: July 2024.
Saturday, June 1, 2024
Quote tweet, 00:06 UTC · 10 likes
Big if true (literally this time)
Quoting Stephan J. Guyenet (@sguyenet): We now have two large, convincing randomized controlled trials reporting that replacing regular salt with potassium-enriched salt substitute (~75% NaCl, 25% KCl) reduces cardiovascular events and probably all-cause mortality.
https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmoa2105675
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02286-8
Reply, 15:45 UTC · 3 likes
Based based based based based based
(Less dramatic, more typical story: doctor insisted that the maximum dose of a very boring, safe, non-controlled medication was 60mg/day. I was like "it says 80 here" holding the uptodate app but I didn't push it)
Reply to @adam__isom, 16:23 UTC · 2 likes
adam ✧ ❥ ~ (@adam__isom): I actually appreciate this in EA thinking, this motivation from uncertainty
by contrast, EAs who've convinced themselves that either (a) software jobs are gonna go away, or (b) AGI is definitely a real thing coming--these un-humble positions decrease my credence in EA thinking
(quoting @AaronBergman18: With obligatory “idk enough to be super confident”, my initial take is: This should be extremely illegal. P(sentient) is way too high and it’s not already integrated into the economy. It’s like octopus factory farming with a ton of uncertainty thrown in)
Uhhhh AGI is definitely a real thing coming (ok not definitely, but >80% for sure, I wanna say >90%)
It looks like an engineering problem now. Claude opus + internet + code + best in class robotics and sensors is AGI. This isn’t trivial to put together lol but the point is that
Thread, continued, 16:24 UTC · 2 likes
there are no big breakthroughs that need to happen, afaict
Am I wrong?
Reply to @strangestloop, 16:27 UTC · 2 likes
Loopy (@strangestloop): Tell me about your most normal friend. What are their hobbies? How do they spend their time?
Ultimate frisbee. He might be reading this lol
Reply to @daniellellecco, 16:29 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @daniellellecco is no longer available.)
Hi 32 I’m Aaron
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 17:27 UTC · 3 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): I feel like The Navigation Fund is really under-discussed. EA priorities, a billionaire backer, led by the former head of The Humane League, and it seems like almost no one has heard of it? https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NAcN98bACuwcnB32H/the-navigation-fund-launched-is-hiring-a-program-officer-to
What
Reply to @inerati, 19:01 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @inerati is no longer available.)
It is my God given right to be able to physically acquire anything anywhere at any time of day (this is more hyperbole than satire)
Reply to @Kirsten3531, 20:26 UTC · 5 likes
Kirsten (@Kirsten3531): My pet peeve is when people say, "Kids are so creative; they have such a fresh perspective; their ideas are the best; everyone should try to think more like kids!"
Kids have lots of ideas that obviously won't work because they don't know anything! Stop embarrassing yourself!
It’s a weird situation where they’re kinda put on a pedestal in this way but not *really* taken seriously and treated like the real person they are
Thread, continued, 20:27 UTC · 3 likes
Not being willing to say (nicely, obviously) “no that won’t work because _____” if the kid is clearly earnest about wanting to know encapsulates this dynamic. It’s such a pet peeve of mine lol https://www.aaronbergman.net/p/kids-are-people-too
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 20:29 UTC · 6 likes
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): While I love talking to children bc of their fresh perspectives, I think it wrong to admonish adults to be more like them or to value their strengths over adult strengths in a way that takes our skills and mindsets for granted. “Youth = shiny, good” is a trap we should avoid.
(quoting @Kirsten3531: My pet peeve is when people say, "Kids are so creative; they have such a fresh perspective; their ideas are the best; everyone should try to think more like kids!" Kids have lots of ideas that obviously won't work because they don't know anything! Stop embarrassing yourself!)
I wanna have a kid on my podcast lol (with parental permission and review)
I think it’s very weird that I don’t interact with anyone in the like 8-16 range basically ever. I wanna know what life is like
Reply to @Mira___Mira, 20:47 UTC · 3 likes
Mira (@Mira___Mira): "Solve this equation: 3*7+5"
That's not an equation, that's an expression. You evaluate not solve it. Nothing's being equated and it has no free variables. Its normal form is 26.
Deep
Reply to @adambinksmith, 22:44 UTC · 2 likes
Adam Binksmith (@adambinksmith): took most of my EAG 1-1s outside today and walked 14 miles lol
Based based based based based
Reply to @exfatloss, 23:55 UTC · 4 likes
exfatloss🥛 (@exfatloss): Is this a real thing in lean people? Does anyone actually get satiated on a meaningful level from volume?
Honest question, I've never experienced this in my life.
(quoting @zachary135791: Butternut squash is an elite option when cutting weight When I go from bulking to cutting I will gradually choose foods with higher volume to calorie ratios Could look like starting with rice, then potatoes, then squash. Finish the cut with mostly fruit and veggies I’m always…)
I think it’s like a real but “thin” kind of satiation - wears off quickly and is much weaker than “not even thinking about food”
I have no idea what I’m talking about but it kinda makes sense, like your gut/brain trying to estimate energy consumed is gonna want to know volume
Sunday, June 2, 2024
Reply to @GjMcGowan, 17:20 UTC · 3 likes
George McGowan (@GjMcGowan): @JesseTayRiver I don’t even get this. Like was the bf an ML researcher? Or she was just worried about his email job being automated?
I assumed the latter but good q
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 17:22 UTC · 1 like
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): @AaronBergman18
I’m built different
Reply to @Kirsten3531, 17:28 UTC · 3 likes
Kirsten (@Kirsten3531): We hired a local 15yo to babysit while I was in the next room
(Didn't really work, baby hated it but) people tolerated the idea of me being in the next room but were truly horrified that we might eventually let her babysit while we're out!
(quoting @Mc_eM: @HannahPosted When I was 12-14 in SA I was regularly babysitting other kids. Here in the UK a friend's 13yr old sometimes dogsits for us and people act like we're letting her play with a gun)
Wild
Reply to @notanastronomer, 17:31 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @notanastronomer is no longer available.)
Damn that’s a lot. I would die
Reply to @AndyMasley, 17:53 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @AndyMasley is no longer available.)
What
Reply to @exfatloss, 17:55 UTC · 3 likes
exfatloss🥛 (@exfatloss): Micronutrients are a psyop. Like "microbiome" it's just a magic word for "I don't know anything but do what I say."
(quoting @KetoCarnivore: This whole thread is fascinating (and there's a paper at the end), but I want to highlight this idea, that not only do animals eat for nutrient coverage, but they seek to _minimize micronutrient excess_.)
Lol what? Bad take
Reply to @sentientlentils, 17:55 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @sentientlentils is no longer available.)
Big if true
Monday, June 3, 2024
Reply to @liz_love_lace, 00:11 UTC · 4 likes
Liz Lovelace (@liz_love_lace): most people in our circles who consider themselves "autistic" have never met a real autist
that being said, i do like that we're starting to be able to recognize and describe slight autism, it's obviously a bell curve and it's valuable info
Bell curve, eh? Who are the least autistic people around?
Quote tweet, 00:37 UTC · 52 likes
The man writes
Quoting James (@grep_cat_): Did not realize Unsong was such a large book
Reply to @historyinmemes, 13:32 UTC · 2 likes
Historic Vids (@historyinmemes): Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping bodyguards acknowledging each other
Real
Quote tweet, 14:02 UTC · 11 likes
Now do planes
Quoting Loopy (@strangestloop): gn
Reply to @yifever, 20:34 UTC · 11 likes
yifei e/λ (meetmeinshibuya Oct 18) (@yifever): isn't it crazy how no one in Asia takes SSRIs and they're all just completely fine?
Are they all just completely fine?
Tweet, 21:19 UTC · 25 likes
Most interesting line from @ZachWeiner on 80k about space didn’t have anything to do with space directly
Reply to @AlignmentGuts, 21:20 UTC · 4 likes
AI Struggler (@AlignmentGuts): Where are you getting your potassium supplements? I can’t find any that don’t have tiny doses per pill like 10% DRD. I don’t want to have to slam a fistful every day dawg
Salt replacement (losalt is one brand)
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Reply to @LinchZhang, 01:07 UTC · 16 likes
Linch (@LinchZhang): Here's a dynamic I see sometimes.
Alice: Man that article has a inaccurate/misleading/horrifying/objectively Satanic headline.
Bob: Did you know, *actually* article writers don't write their own headlines?
---
But what I care about is the misleading headline, not your org chart
It’s relevant when there’s ire directed at the writer though, as there definitely sometimes is
Reply to @xlr8harder, 01:55 UTC · 13 likes
xlr8harder (@xlr8harder): When you're just making stuff up, you can add as many decimal places as you like.
I've decided we're going to be safe infinity + 1 times.
FWIW I don’t know of a single other person who’d endorse anything like this degree of confidence. It’s silly frankly
Reply, 02:18 UTC · 1 like
(Jk and indeed)
Thread, continued, 02:20 UTC · 1 like
Fr though I don’t expect a pod on mostly the technical reasons space civilization is hard to unintentionally convince me that the US senate is more legitimate than I previously thought
Reply to @absurdlymax, 02:34 UTC · 3 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @arithmoquine @OliRandom (from @AaronBergman18)
More is only better if you have a brain that can do geometry
Quote tweet, 09:46 UTC · 7 likes
Real
Quoting henry (@arithmoquine): fyi the real reason i've been ignoring you is:
- i want to reply
- i want to be able to give you the attention and focus you deserve
- i never feel like i have enough energy to properly do that
Reply to @absurdlymax, 11:35 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @bellaforristal Okay I didn't want to say anything but priors confirmed
Lol
Reply to @eigenrobot, 11:39 UTC · 3 likes
eigenrobot (@eigenrobot): people will do this online too
it seems like an impediment to communication at first. but understood correctly is also a pathway to many abilities that some consider to be unnatural
(quoting @simonsarris: In person it feels rare that people hear the words I say. I say something, and people pattern-match my words to words they've heard before, and respond to that instead.)
Online most communication is text, which is both the words themselves and (usually, as long as no stealth editing) a record of what was actually said
The analog for spoken conversation, transcription, is uncommon
Tweet, 12:34 UTC · 83 likes
“Oversharing” is a psyop to prevent people from making friends
Reply to @mattecapu, 12:52 UTC · 3 likes
Matteo Capucci (@mattecapu): why do we have fav colors and not fav smells, or tastes, or pitches
Speak for urself
Reply to @ChanaMessinger, 13:52 UTC · 10 likes
Chana (@ChanaMessinger): What's the shortest way to say "either doing X when you shouldn't or not-doing X when you should"?
“Doing the wrong thing”?
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Reply, 09:23 UTC · 1 like
it’s really not obvious what the assumed counterfactual world would be. Like is congress allowed to delegate some functions to other agencies or is this like a bad post-hoc epicycle to avoid actually standing by the original strong statement
Thread, continued, 09:24 UTC · 2 likes
The reason I’m willing to stand by “Abolish the FDA” though is that like there is a cluster of pretty simple scenarios I can think of which is just like “repeal the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act of 1938 and then let the messy real world play out”
Reply to @NathanB60857242, 09:28 UTC · 4 likes
Nathan Barnard (@NathanB60857242): There's an excessive appetite for contrarian and extreme views. I think this predictably leads people to make bad predictions.
For instance:
- e/acc vs pause
- alt-right vs breadtube
- popular books like "how the establishment got away with it" and "the shock doctrine"
I disagree with a bunch of things
- Pause is pretty obviously more plausibly good than e/acc. It’s like calling Alex Jones and Joe Biden the two extremes of American politics
- the changes you mention around mech interp, other alignment work, and governance seem like
Thread, continued, 09:30 UTC · 2 likes
reasonable updates to make given the actual path AI has taken. I guess this doesn’t explain the mech interp thing as well idk, but the other two make intuitive sense
Reply to @NoahTopper, 16:37 UTC · 2 likes
Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper): @JesseTayRiver @FrostedSapling I hope you’re prepared to ruin some nice clothes
Perhaps a suit
Tweet, 16:43 UTC · 22 likes
Can we have a week where nothing AI-related happens? Plz
Reply to @RYChappell, 16:51 UTC · 3 likes
Richard Y. Chappell🔸 (@RYChappell): This site needs more epiphenomenalism discourse. Feel free to join in :-)
(quoting @RYChappell: @2Philosophical_ Why think it happens? People are way too quick to dismiss epiphenomenalism. Compare: https://philpapers.org/rec/YETDAT)
My continual hot take is that nobody has any fucking clue (what the nature of consciousness is)
Quote tweet, 16:57 UTC · 21 likes
Who wants to move to the pencil
Quoting Chris 🦝 (READ BIO!!) (@TrashPanda08x): The Oklahoma City council just voted 8 to 1 to remove a height restriction and rezone a section of brick town to accommodate a 1907ft tall building, which would make it the tallest in North America. Construction is going to start later this year. This is insane funny
Reply to @GjMcGowan, 16:59 UTC · 2 likes
George McGowan (@GjMcGowan): mad how boring I find AI
This but the opposite
Reply to @MariGO2thepolls, 17:06 UTC · 5 likes
🏳️🌈Mar G-O 🌐🇺🇦 (@MariGO2thepolls):
I don’t want my family to die 😡
Reply to @DeepDishEnjoyer, 17:16 UTC · 1 like
peepeepoopoo (@DeepDishEnjoyer): vox populi vox dei
image attached
image attached
(quoting @DeepDishEnjoyer: should I make myself a strawberry milkshake for breakfast)
Tf is rose water
Thread, continued, 17:16 UTC · 1 like
Well that does make sense
Reply to @MichaelTrazzi, 18:00 UTC · 42 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @MichaelTrazzi is no longer available.)
Some people really are just better than you across every dimension 🤷♂️
Tweet, 18:26 UTC · 2 likes
Wtf there’s a whole food group I am only now just discovering exists
Thread, continued, 18:27 UTC · 4 likes
Brb gonna make some grass condensate
Reply, 18:37 UTC · 2 likes
Cheems mindset
Reply to @RichardHanania, 18:43 UTC · 6 likes
Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania): This is really a beautiful video. These people are crossing the border to take jobs most Americans think are beneath them, giving shoutouts to their home countries. And they know that they’re coming to a free country where they can publicly show their faces while breaking unjust laws and still be able to live their lives because we are too humane and civilized to deport them.
Sorry, I’m always going to take the side of someone who showed initiative in life over a person who believes they should get special privileges because they were born somewhere.
The other view is contrary to the essence of America, which yes was founded by white men with a particular heritage and culture, but whose moral and ideological commitments told them it was people’s character and ideas that mattered.
I wish these new arrivals the best and am glad they’re here to keep making America great.
Based. Welcome
Tweet, 18:55 UTC · 8 likes
I’d like to come out as a China hawk. I think it would be extremely bad for the CCP to have a decisive advantage via any means, AGI included
Reply to @besttrousers, 19:22 UTC · 1 like
Matt Darling 🌐🏗️ (@besttrousers): > the standard of living for working class people lowered
This is an inaccurate summary of the effects of immigration on working class people.
Immigrants effect both labor supply and demand - the effects on wages are indeterminate in theory, and we cannot reject 0 empirically.
(quoting @BriannaWu: I know it’s a high bar, but “open borders” is literally the stupidest idea the fringe left has ever cooked up. It doesn’t even make any sense from a leftist point of view. What, you want unfettered sex trafficking? You want union labor diluted and the standard of living for…)
My best guess summary: probably has modest negative short run impact for a very small, selected part of the labor market and everyone else wins over every timescale, including that group beyond a few years (idk 5?)
Reply to @prerat, 19:23 UTC · 2 likes
prerat (@prerat): have you seen this one? i think it's pretty good
Stfu that is a cat on the left and a dog on the right
Tweet, 19:40 UTC · 12 likes
Is anyone interested in recording themselves reading a section of this for an audiobook/podcast feed? I am not the most eloquent reader but would do one
Describing the figures appropriately is (ironically, a bit) not smth current TTS handles well afaik
https://situational-awareness.ai/
Reply, 19:44 UTC · 1 like
Care to share? The LLMs don’t know
Quote tweet, 21:55 UTC · 4 likes
Seems bad
Quoting Kevin Roose (@kevinroose): Interesting update to the OpenAI whistleblower story: After denying it on the record, Microsoft is now admitting that they tested an early version of GPT-4 in India without the approval of a joint safety board.
Reply to @AndyMasley, 22:19 UTC · 8 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): It's become hard not to notice how many people's p(doom) can be pretty easily predicted by their specific social scene, among other things
This is true and IMO the correct interpretation is not the intuitive one (intuitive = “any given persons p(doom) is not sensitive to legit evidence”)
Galef pill = community-level error correcting and truth-seeking norms >> individual-level CFAR brand rationality …
Thread, continued, 22:20 UTC · 3 likes
So yeah, look for the community with the best error correcting and truth seeking norms and you’re gonna have a better (epistemic) time
Thread, continued, 22:22 UTC · 3 likes
If you wanna make a micro level argument about being agnostic between various micro social niches under that umbrella, sure
Reply to @growing_daniel, 22:53 UTC · 2 likes
Daniel (@growing_daniel): this thirty second countdown to get tracking info on DHL's website is kinda blowing my mind rn
It’s definitely running on one guys computer
Tweet, 22:56 UTC · 9 likes
I’m taking an unprecedented 2 day twitter fast. Adiós hasta Friday
Saturday, June 8, 2024
Reply to @frances__lorenz, 20:46 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)
Ok ❤️
Quote tweet, 21:39 UTC · 10 likes
Straight up lying to POTUS should be disqualifying for basically everything
Quoting Garrison Lovely (@GarrisonLovely): So I remember @a16z relaying this howler to the UK House of Lords, but I did not realize that @ylecun, @ID_AA_Carmack, and other technical folks signed their name to the same claim in a letter to Biden!
I really don't know how you could possibly take them seriously after this.
Reply to @kindgracekind, 23:23 UTC · 2 likes
Grace (@kindgracekind): wild. zoom in -- there are no red pixels in this image
Real
Reply to @RFishBlueFish, 23:35 UTC · 2 likes
Gil (@RFishBlueFish): The argument refuting consciousness (causal cloture) is pretty uncomfortably strong for consciousness but absolutely destroys affective consciousness
Idk that backpack I’m looking at sure looks irreducibly qualitatively black to me in a private visceral extra-physical sense
Sunday, June 9, 2024
Reply to @RafaRuizdeLira, 12:46 UTC · 3 likes
Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 (@RafaRuizdeLira): If you haven't made it by 23 it's too late for u
(quoting @anuatluru: feels like people are having a midlife crisis at a younger age than ever before (23))
Darn
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 13:44 UTC · 2 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): Breakfast of champions
I’m assuming howie is just outside the frame
Reply, 13:51 UTC · 1 like
Has anyone ever actually matched with a rose?
Reply, 16:54 UTC · 1 like
:(
Monday, June 10, 2024
Tweet, 08:35 UTC · 108 likes
Maybe a dumb question but a “startup” is just distinguished from a normal old new business by vibes right?
Thread, continued, 08:35 UTC · 15 likes
Like the association is with founder ambition and hardware/software innovation (as opposed to like just taking existing systems to a new market)…
but it’s still fundamentally a continuous spectrum, not much of a natural category outside of the social world (???)
Thread, continued, 08:35 UTC · 10 likes
Tryna figure out why I never hear about very smart young people trying to do anything in between “work at a job for a paycheck” and “found a business predicated on the potential to be worth at least hundreds of millions”
Thread, continued, 08:35 UTC · 6 likes
Maybe:
- I’m being dumb, people do this all the time but it doesn’t jive with the twitter algorithm and vibes
Thread, continued, 08:35 UTC · 7 likes
- it’s systematically easier to build a company and sell to google for $10M than build a company that you personally value at $10M (ok but shouldn’t people migrate here until the EV equalizes?)
Thread, continued, 08:38 UTC · 6 likes
Also like there’s a missing middle in terms of vibes
On one side you’ve got unicorn-esque tech startups. On the other, an ethnic restaurant or dry cleaner eeking out a normal profit
Reply to @JgaltTweets, 09:21 UTC · 6 likes
JgaltTweets (@JgaltTweets): I think the distinguishing feature of a 'startup' is usually that the intent/expectation of the founder and early employees is that it's eventually going to either become a very large company, or be bought out by one; not remain at the level of the usual owner-operator business
I’m trying to point out that at least conceptually and I think irl (lol) there is plenty of space between owner-operator and “startup”
Like anything regional for one thing (chain restaurant, bank, retail, basically anything but software and maybe pharma)
Reply to @CameronHolmes92, 09:22 UTC · 1 like
Cameron Holmes (@CameronHolmes92): I think this is mostly a result of the winner-takes-all/zero marginal cost technology thing: there's no point being the 50th best search engine. This forces you into the startup funding/capital model for many ambitions.
Yes this makes sense for software specifically
Which is a big deal ofc lol but not everything at least for now
Reply to @panickssery, 09:24 UTC · 4 likes
Arjun Panickssery (@panickssery): Startups are unlike starting other businesses like cafes or factories because their focus is on growing to a much larger size
Seems like theres plenty of room between zero growth and winner takes all outside of software. Regionality is the boring way this happens but specialization more generally
Reply to @toasterlighting, 09:30 UTC · 1 like
Celene (@toasterlighting): @AaronBergman18 Imagine applying the same logic to a different question.
"why don't we see smart young people do carpentry? Why do they all study STEM? Maybe tech jobs pay more or are easier, but if that's the case we should see people migrate towards them until the EV equalizes."
The assumption that the two buckets are STEM/max growth startup and owner-operator/local business/carpentry is what I’m questioning though
Although somewhat ironically @JesseTayRiver’s success at basically having a carpentry firm (https://www.willardbrothers.net) inspired this in part
Reply to @bendunnflores, 09:52 UTC · 1 like
bdf (@bendunnflores): There does seem to be a gap for equity financing of new businesses designed to grow at ~20-50% per year.
Some angels offer funding to that kind of business, but there's no easy onramps
Normie solution = personal savings, maybe parents, and a dream (not endorsing necessarily)
Reply to @KirkegaardEmil, 10:04 UTC · 2 likes
Emil Kirkegaard (@KirkegaardEmil): Human geneticists: oh no, I am so worried, about about X Y Z hypothetical problems?? 😟
Non-human geneticists: polygenic scores go up 📈
Lol yeah it’s important to take into account the effects on the population of interest when the population is human but not when it’s corn
Reply to @thebestestpie, 12:14 UTC · 3 likes
Fake News Pie (@thebestestpie): @JesseTayRiver @AaronBergman18 @toasterlighting why don’t you do it?
Excellent q. If he says anything about age I’m subpoena-ing records from strava
Reply to @SpencrGreenberg, 12:32 UTC · 11 likes
Spencer Greenberg 🔍 (@SpencrGreenberg): A question for you if you have at least 500 Twitter followers who are people you don’t know: how would you describe what you did that caused you to get your followers (that differs from others who tweet just as often but who have few followers)?
Dumb technicality answer is “tweet at that frequency but for longer”
Tweet, 12:40 UTC · 4 likes
Gender ratio discourse.
EA : veganism ~ TPOT : ???
Reply to @RokoMijic, 13:13 UTC · 2 likes
Roko 🐉 (@RokoMijic): The reason why I disagree with this is that AI has both great promise and also great peril, and I don't think that trying to delay or pause it is +EV.
You have to actually steer it.
(quoting @KatSpartz: PSA - the most prominent AI risk deniers are paid by Big AI I’m sure that has nothing to do with their position that AI development will lead to only benefits)
Steering gets harder as rate of change increases, pause facilitates steering
Reply, 13:42 UTC · 1 like
Oh lol I didn’t realize I was replying to u before I copied the link
Thread, continued, 13:43 UTC · 1 like
But also, as a thought experiment if not a proper argument, you imagine two worlds, one empty and one with a single being in severe pain with no other qualia. Seems pretty clear to me that one is worse than the other and that we can say this in the same way we can talk of
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Reply to @JacquesThibs, 13:04 UTC · 4 likes
Jacques (@JacquesThibs): Met a new friend yesterday
Keep at it in a couple generations they will be puppies
Reply to @CrispyWicks, 13:06 UTC · 4 likes
Chris P. Wicks 🔎🐜 (@CrispyWicks): wmaf jokes about the af make me livid, murderous. wmaf jokes about the wm make me go "haha it me, I love my gf"
(quoting @tenobrus: every wmaf couple)
Wassigned male at firth?
Quote tweet, 13:15 UTC · 3 likes
I have opinions, who tryna incorporate
Quoting Jack (@tracewoodgrains): people give immense authority to official-sounding institutions
a ton of advocacy groups are, like, “Mr. has-opinions and his seven friends” but if you make up a neat-sounding org name and say official-sounding things, many people and news orgs will treat you as Authoritarive
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 13:39 UTC · 2 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): Pleased to report that they’re playing shrimp videos at the eye doctor’s
The fish: am I a joke to u
Reply to @GjMcGowan, 13:44 UTC · 2 likes
George McGowan (@GjMcGowan): We’re about to find out
👀🦐
Reply to @kepe__, 13:46 UTC · 2 likes
kepe ✨🇫🇮 (@kepe__): @AaronBergman18 what are your opiions
Twitter good, cold good, walk good, suffering bad
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 13:48 UTC · 3 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): They dilated my eyes and now everything is blurry T_T
RIP
and for Matt:
Reply to @ElytraMithra, 13:51 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @ElytraMithra is no longer available.)
No
Tweet, 13:57 UTC · 7 likes
I have no idea what this is for, might stiff Microsoft $0.16
Reply to @absurdlymax, 14:18 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): I don't think think this is strictly true, though I suppose I sometimes hear of this being used to justify cost effectiveness being higher than other non x-risk interventions; you could selfishly care a lot about x-risk for example
I definitely selfishly care about x-risk lol
Quote tweet, 19:01 UTC · 7 likes
Yes, and all IDEs need a big green “Run” button
This is @Replit’s innovation
Quoting Dan's Bake Sale (@dadbodsociety): im sorry i have to say this but GitHub needs a big red "download" button.
Reply to @prerat, 19:11 UTC · 2 likes
prerat (@prerat): screen aren't actually that interesting. probably your environment is just boring. or you made a habit of looking at screen because your environment is usually boring
Nah screen is definitely more interesting 95% of the time lol
There are many virtues to touching grass but interestingness is low on the list
Reply, 19:21 UTC · 15 likes
Strength is much more responsive generally than muscle size. Muscle size is mostly about testosterone and diet, strength is largely about nervous system recruitment which is much more egalitarian
Quote tweet, 19:28 UTC · 2 likes
R/acc
Quoting Kyle Walker (@kyle_e_walker): Coming home for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, via #rstats, the upcoming {mapboxgl} package, and @Mapbox's new Standard style
You'll be able to do this yourselves, with very little code, really soon
#OneForDallas
#MavsIn7
Reply to @ameliasxo, 19:33 UTC · 2 likes
mill 🐬 (@ameliasxo): No one has got your back like your 2 regular tweet likers
(quoting @Kulfei: A banger, actually)
🦐
Reply to @absurdlymax, 19:34 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 @ohwizenedtortle Your content is just too good
Thx
Reply to @littIeramblings, 19:38 UTC · 2 likes
sarah (@littIeramblings): Oh wait this tweet is like 8 months old
No excuses
Reply to @absurdlymax, 19:41 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 @ohwizenedtortle Looking through old tweets I see
Reply to @SipOfKoKo, 19:46 UTC · 5 likes
🇺🇳🇺🇸🇹🇼🇺🇦Derek🇵🇸🌐🔰🈷 (@SipOfKoKo): Being an empiricist is hard. You can cite 20 academic research paper and someone will just come along with a bad Instagram graphic and convince more people than you ever will.
(quoting @alfred_twu: The production case for rent control: There's a shortage of loans, supplies, & workers. When new rich residents create demand for housing, steer those dollars towards funding new homes, rather than non-essential renovations of old ones.)
I can’t like this tweet bc empiricism is overrated in general, even if it’s underrated in this specific context
Reply to @RokoMijic, 19:50 UTC · 3 likes
Roko 🐉 (@RokoMijic): AI can revolutionize the economy
We vastly overpay for cognitive work
image attached
(quoting @joebenson: Had to take my 3 yr old son to the ER last week. Fear was appendicitis but after 45 min of moaning he burped for 5 seconds & was fine🤦♂️so we asked to leave. The bill? $4,179 😵💫 WHAT?! I called the hospital billing dept. You won't believe how this ends. Here's the breakdown:…)
Regulatory issue, not a tech issue
Reply to @beala, 20:10 UTC · 1 like
Alex Beal 🆎 (@beala): I am begging you to not use the highlighter/marker tool to redact images. Trivially recoverable playing with the sliders in the photo app.
(quoting @cottoncandaddy: not to be a bitch but I work from home like 20 feet from my front door so I can hear everything, and I heard a delivery person on the porch but they didn’t knock so I didn’t come to the door, but they didn’t deliver my mail and also didn’t say why??)
Wait fr
Reply to @DavidPinsof, 20:42 UTC · 6 likes
David Pinsof (@DavidPinsof): Is effective altruism bullshit? Check out my latest post, where I argue the answer is yes (naturally), but also it’s complicated. https://www.everythingisbullshit.blog/p/is-effective-altruism-bullshit
“Suffering is good”
- guy who gets anesthesia during surgery
Is it sometimes instrumentally useful? Yes, nobody disputes that, come on. Fish asphyxiating to death is still bad
Reply to @AndyMasley, 21:07 UTC · 5 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): Fantano just gave Brat a 10 this is not a drill folks
Idk what any of this means
Tweet, 21:17 UTC · 6 likes
Ik GPTs are so two months ago but there’s exactly one that I use all the time and it’s this https://chatgpt.com/g/g-C9AdUkoJG-code-only
Reply to @RomanHauksson, 21:27 UTC · 26 likes
Roman Hauksson-Neill (@RomanHauksson): Do you have any examples in mind?
All the traditional “I want to do X to help people/make the world a better place” careers
Tweet, 22:20 UTC · 5 likes
When serious institution staffed with smart earnest people makes decision X, you should probably have a high prior on X being the right call at least for what they care about, all things considered
Thread, continued, 22:20 UTC · 3 likes
This line of reasoning is so boring it feels like there must be a trick going on but nah it checks out
Impetus is people insisting on here that Apple made the “wrong call” on some matter of business wrt iOS 18 but I feel like I see it all the time
Reply to @Duderichy, 22:43 UTC · 5 likes
the Rich (@Duderichy): people 👏 shouldn't 👏 have 👏 to 👏 pay 👏 for 👏 things 👏
(quoting @unusual_whales: President Joe Biden's administration will formally propose a rule to bar medical debt from individual credit reports, per Bloomberg.)
I mean in US medicine specifically, yeah sometimes this but ironically bc you can charged randint(20, 10⁶) and generally can’t make normal consumer type decisions, if any decision at all
Quote tweet, 22:45 UTC · 4 likes
I propose a norm of paying for medical services that look basically like other normal consumer purchases (mainly, know the price before deciding) fully and on time and using as many legal/practical loopholes as you can find otherwise
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @Duderichy I mean in US medicine specifically, yeah sometimes this but ironically bc you can charged randint(20, 10⁶) and generally can’t make normal consumer type decisions, if any decision at all
Quote tweet, 23:08 UTC · 35 likes
Thing about this meme (and others like it) is that it’s not true or approximately true even in a very generous meme-oriented sense
Quoting Jennifer D'aww (@GMShivers):
Thread, continued, 23:08 UTC · 15 likes
People don’t stare at “the incomprehensible horrors”; they’re maybe forced to look once, if unlucky, and then either die in the process or memory-hole it for their own functioning and sanity when “back to normal”
Thread, continued, 23:08 UTC · 12 likes
And tbc this is at least in part stuff you know about conceptually: factory farming, torture, predation, not anything mystical or metaphysically contentious
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Tweet, 00:11 UTC · 30 likes
Took me an embarrassingly long time to realize that “vacation smell” is just light ambient cigarette smoke
Reply to @TheZvi, 00:21 UTC · 7 likes
Zvi Mowshowitz (@TheZvi): Tonight is last call for reactions and comments related to @leopoldasch , either Situational Awareness or the podcast, then I hope to wrap that up tomorrow. Anything I should be sure to get?
Almost definitely not original but I have a sense that EAish people have too strong an immune reaction to the nationalist vibe-associating international (geo-) political conflict stuff
Thread, continued, 00:23 UTC · 4 likes
which is extremely understandable and IMO basically too much of a good thing
But like ex ante it’s totally possible (and I think true, tentatively) that “CCP cannot win AGI race” checks out from an impartial moral perspective
Reply to @Littoral_Gecko, 01:09 UTC · 4 likes
A Gecko🦎 (@Littoral_Gecko): @AaronBergman18 Is this because the ‘vacation smell’ you’ve identified is coming from hotel rooms?
Nah I picture walking outside in crowded urban areas with ample smoking. Outing myself as a very sheltered suburbanite
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 02:31 UTC · 3 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): @AaronBergman18 1) What
I think the requirements are like lots of people densely packed outside, bars around, enough smoke to smell but few obvious smokers in visual field to associate it with, and (relatedly) intensity stays pretty constant for a while
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 02:35 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): @SpacedOutMatt @AaronBergman18 Jersey shore maybe?
The image that comes to my mind is New Orleans. Also Barcelona
Reply to @FrostedSapling, 02:44 UTC · 3 likes
Ivan 🔸 (@FrostedSapling): @inesferhumi @pearl_please
Ines serves the Kiki, pearl serves boba
Reply to @DaCaveOfWonders, 03:27 UTC · 2 likes
Tiger Lava Lamp (@DaCaveOfWonders): 42k steps today
Up and down 2 mountains
Everything hurts
(quoting @DaCaveOfWonders: 28k steps yesterday. We'll see what I get today from a ~full day of hiking)
Dang that is several steps
Reply to @ruth_hook_, 03:30 UTC · 4 likes
Ruth Hook (@ruth_hook_): "We have learned that many things are lost if one looks at averages, but are revealed when one studies single events"
A lot of Bayes-obsessed ppl I know would be angered by this but it's from a biologist who successfully cured his own daughters rare cancer in a relative rush
If this is rationalist shade I think I disagree, it’s an important insight (this isn’t an exact example but still)
Reply to @AndyMasley, 03:50 UTC · 8 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @Bbburner19 Oh I do that a lot I mean that there's a giant Cheez-It inside
If you donate $10k to THL God allows u to have one morally neutral cheese it
Tweet, 04:53 UTC · 5 likes
Regardless of the truth of any claim, internet waves of various diet zeitgeists is probably functional - it increases within-individual variance and systematically tend to keep what works and eschew what doesn’t for them personally
Reply to @bschne, 04:54 UTC · 2 likes
Benjamin (@bschne): I hate when I have two great replies to something and need to pick
Poast both
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 04:59 UTC · 6 likes
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): I find weirdness fun and welcoming but I cannot stress enough how orthogonal that is to whether ideas are true or morally important or not.
(quoting @ilex_ulmus: People who actually care about doing good should welcome a boring, normie EA if that's how it turned out.)
Conceptually sure, but irl there are pretty obvious causal relationships. We should expect a cause to be more neglected if weirder, all else equal
Thread, continued, 05:01 UTC · 1 like
Likewise, all the normal critiques of EA are bad and wrong (I claim lol) bc if they were true and normal they’d have been incorporated by now
Tweet, 05:07 UTC
Not enough recent history. History is always old af. Most interesting stuff is just barely old enough for ~impartial clarity, like 5-20 years
Reply to @mimi10v3, 05:12 UTC · 3 likes
˚♡⋆mimi ˚♡⋆｡☆∴ (@mimi10v3): when Likes are private, which category of tweets will you most increase Liking?
Lol none of these seem even slightly tempting to like
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 05:22 UTC · 2 likes
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): @AaronBergman18 Does time yield impartial clarity or simply a winning interpretation?
Probably both but history as a discipline and set of methods and norms is the only good antidote I know of to bad winning interpretations
Reply to @cremieuxrecueil, 05:42 UTC · 5 likes
Crémieux (@cremieuxrecueil): Multivitamins don't really seem to have an impact on mortality in randomized controlled trials.
Mortality? Is that why anyone takes multivitamins?
Reply to @absurdlymax, 05:58 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): It's insane I can have an effectively infinite amount of clean water and ice
Not me
Reply to @zestular, 06:15 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @zestular is no longer available.)
This thread needs to see this (the algorithm not the qt)
Reply to @GarettJones, 07:24 UTC · 8 likes
Garett Jones (@GarettJones): Note the units
Modest effect of 30 IQ points on wages, even in middle age
If you want to say IQ matters a lot, you'll have to look at externalities, spillovers
You'll have to look at the Hive Mind
(quoting @cremieuxrecueil: When people are young, the wage gaps between those with high and low levels of intelligence are smaller. The effects of being smarter compound with time.)
Iq 115 earns 25% more than IQ 85? Seems implausible, did I do the math wrong?
Reply to @lumpenspace, 12:11 UTC · 4 likes
lumpenspace and 99+ others (@lumpenspace): I am Defeated
I’d stay (this is a description not a prescription)
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Reply, 03:16 UTC · 1 like
Also responsible for 90% of economic growth per capita
Reply to @ryiacy, 03:16 UTC · 1 like
dom (@ryiacy): threads content goes crazy
Ok who tryna build a relationship
Thread, continued, 03:19 UTC · 4 likes
Lawyers: parents
Accountants: @PeterJAngel
SWEs: all yall
Business owners: @JesseTayRiver
Millionaires: they might get mad if I tag but congrats on the exit
Marketing experts: this is twitter, all of us
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 03:23 UTC · 1 like
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): My last project with Rethink Priorities was just released publicly. Read if you’re interested in the state of the field of Wild Animal Welfare.
https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/a-landscape-analysis-of-wild-animal-welfare
@RethinkPriors @aMarcusDavis @peterwildeford wanna post the whole text so it gets added to the various podcast feeds (or make ur own pod 👀👀👀) https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/huQJtxcDHbbyuraR2/linkpost-a-landscape-analysis-of-wild-animal-welfare
Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 03:32 UTC · 2 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): You can use whatever assumptions you want if you just say "a naive model of this is"
Let pi = -621
Reply, 04:02 UTC
This changed with deep learning. It’s not a crazy prior but you have to actually look at the world and what has happened over last 10 years
Reply to @robsica, 04:03 UTC · 3 likes
Rob Sica (@robsica): "School psychology and, more broadly, the field of education are particularly susceptible to pseudoscience, fads, and maintaining the status quo by resisting the adoption of new ideas."
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781003266181/investigating-school-psychology-michael-axelrod-stephen-hupp
Pretty strong tension between “fads” and “resisting new ideas” no?
Tweet, 04:09 UTC · 9 likes
Kinda crazy to me that people think the “data wall” is a plausible constraint on AI progress
The world generates infinite (practically) ground truth data! Put a camera anywhere! Or a microphone! Or any sensor of anything!
Thread, continued, 04:10 UTC · 6 likes
The one thing there isn’t an infinite amount of is human-written text on the internet. This feels more like an inconvenience than a fundamental constraint
Tweet, 04:15 UTC · 8 likes
Songs I disagree with:
- Mean. Taylor is punching down at this point
- Complicated by Avril Lavigne. The guy is just trying on a new aesthetic, and there’s no ground truth genuine style for anyone
Reply, 04:28 UTC · 1 like
I’d say a bit worse but not down to 3.5. The one thing it messes up constantly is regex escapes that are different in R
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 07:26 UTC · 2 likes
Aaron Bergman, June 13, 2024: Lawyers: parents Accountants: @PeterJAngel SWEs: all yall Business owners: @JesseTayRiver Millionaires: they might get mad if I tag but congrats on the exit…
Update they liked the post
Reply to @webmasterdave, 07:49 UTC · 3 likes
David Pearce (@webmasterdave): @herbivoryze A happy, peaceful biosphere where all sentient beings flourish sometimes feels an impossible dream. But we now have the technical tools (CRISPR, synthetic gene drives) to create such a world. Power creates complicity. Conserving the cruelties of Nature would be deeply immoral.
I liked this tweet
Reply to @herbivoryze, 07:49 UTC · 2 likes
HerbivoRyzing (@herbivoryze): “Natural selection is a monstrous engine of suffering. But until recently, talk of Darwinian life as immoral didn't make much sense. Nothing could be done. However, humans will shortly have the option to civilize Nature and create a pan-species welfare state.” - David Pearce
Like
Reply to @kepe__, 08:32 UTC · 2 likes
kepe ✨🇫🇮 (@kepe__): @AaronBergman18 that's not useful data lol, and most of it is equivalent to noise
Sure seems like ability to predict the next say 600 frames = 10 seconds of arbitrary video from the last hour almost anywhere in the world would help build a world model
Reply, 08:37 UTC · 3 likes
I agree caring about this out loud is bad and a bad signal but it’s probably just that they dislike the change instead of 4d reverse psychology/projection. Just speculating but I’d guess the equivalent for straight women would be seeing a trend of men shaving their head
Tweet, 08:40 UTC · 7 likes
Abolish. Or whatever, just remove their veto power over molecules in medicine
Reply to @littIeramblings, 19:27 UTC · 2 likes
sarah (@littIeramblings): starting to think there is no amount of time I could spend on Twitter that would give me the answer as to what’s gonna happen with AI, devastated
Sad
Reply to @davidad, 19:30 UTC · 3 likes
davidad 🎇 (@davidad): tag yourself; I’m an alarmed welfarist variabilist
(quoting @robbensinger: What if we just decided to make AI risk discourse not completely terrible?)
Alarmed welfarist eventualist (although idk what “soon” means)
Reply to @arithmoquine, 19:51 UTC · 1 like
henry (@arithmoquine): complex social dynamics between my friends got nothing on me
considering automating this with an llm so i have a constant real-time dashboard as shit goes down
Lol I definitely made a diagram by hand in middle school
Reply to @IroncladDev, 20:01 UTC
IroncladDev (@IroncladDev): Now that I know some people write frontends in R my day is ruined
😈
Reply to @abyssalblue_, 20:06 UTC · 41 likes
cyan (@abyssalblue_): reminder that this is a real wikipedia article
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizophrenia_(object-oriented_programming)
Reply to @cookiecarver, 20:08 UTC · 1 like
cookie🍪 (@cookiecarver): another day another time to play guess the fruit!
guess the fruit!? (normal sized egg for scale)
Blueberry
Reply to @arithmoquine, 20:18 UTC · 2 likes
henry (@arithmoquine): hmu and you'll be fixed in no time. i have the receipts to prove it
He just like me fr
Reply to @kenwheeler, 20:46 UTC · 2 likes
patagucci perf papi (@kenwheeler): i had to give a talk at the same time as the dude who invented css lmfao.
Tell him it’s too complicated
Quote tweet, 21:36 UTC · 58 likes
Unreasonable effectiveness of @leopoldasch
Quoting OpenAI (@OpenAI): Paul M. Nakasone brings world-class cybersecurity expertise to OpenAI’s Board of Directors, helping us deliver on our mission by protecting our systems from increasingly sophisticated bad actors. https://openai.com/index/openai-appoints-retired-us-army-general/
Reply to @JacquesThibs, 22:01 UTC · 4 likes
Jacques (@JacquesThibs): Might not be for the SA doc, but for Leopold’s early attempts to get this to happen while he was at OAI
+1, I was just thinking this
Reply to @rachelclif, 22:53 UTC · 3 likes
rachel (is sending love and warmth your way) (@rachelclif): men: how can women discern if a guy loves them?
Says “I love you” and seems honest in every other domain?
Quote tweet, 22:57 UTC · 19 likes
Only took 7 weeks to not find matching socks for the first time
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): I’m sure they’ll have disappeared by summer, but having 24 new pairs of socks is wild - truly abundance mindset
It’s like peak FTX but for my feet
Reply to @LinchZhang, 23:03 UTC · 1 like
Linch (@LinchZhang): If you buy multiple copies of the same socks, then you're much more robust to losing specific socks.
Indeed, I thought light and dark of the same brand and size would be ok but alas I should just go with perfectly intermediate gray
Reply to @thecaptain_nemo, 23:04 UTC · 3 likes
Nemo (@thecaptain_nemo): alcohol is so unique in its ability to dramatically lower inhibitions. would be really valuable to have a drug that did the same thing without the hangovers or negative impact on cognitive ability
Stimulants (probably these are different forms of inhibition lowering but decreasing threshold for action is like precisely what stims do)
Friday, June 14, 2024
Reply to @AndyMasley, 00:32 UTC · 3 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): Some things that are underrated: Puritanism, the law of supply and demand, having a good VO2 max, animals, cheap watches, life in Washington DC, the American military and the military industrial complex, donating to GiveWell, the book Little, Big, the movie Love Streams
Probably disagree about Puritanism and GiveWell
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 00:33 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): @AndyMasley I think it's a strong performance predictor in events ≥ 2 minutes, but tbh I don't know much about the health angle. I've always assumed that workload would predict health more than vo2max but genuinely unsure
I’m guessing u don’t have much knowledge of what bad vo2 max feels like
Reply to @AndyMasley, 00:34 UTC · 3 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @AaronBergman18 GiveWell bc animals right?
Yeah or more generally theres no plausible assumptions under which they’re the best place to donate. If not dominated by animal welfare then by LTFF or something similar
Reply to @absurdlymax, 00:35 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): God I wish twitter circles still existed
@elonmusk
Reply to @daniel_271828, 02:27 UTC · 2 likes
zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828): Just pick up the phone and call them
Fr
Reply to @AndyMasley, 17:31 UTC · 2 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @GarrisonLovely I think the core disagreement here is how normal or abnormal we see the statement. Like I'd be comfortable tweeting "Jeez I personally really don't want Trump to win" even though EA DC and EA more broadly is non-partisan, and I guess I see "US military good" as pretty normal too
Stay strong Andy 🫡
Reply to @AndyMasley, 17:33 UTC · 4 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @AaronBergman18 @GarrisonLovely Garrison's a friend tbc and I don't need strength to have a back and forth 😇
Stay strong Andy and Garrison 🫡
Reply to @prpaschka, 17:52 UTC · 2 likes
Philip Paschka (@prpaschka): I think the ethics around food are less black-and-white than many vegans think, but lurking on /r/exvegans shows the value of a sharp line: when it doesn't exist, many convince themselves that the feelings of farmed animals don't matter.
Bad sub mostly. I’m an ex-vegan and like “veganism bad for me personally but morally good” is not something most entertain, evidently
Reply to @inerati, 17:57 UTC
liz (@inerati): vscode is just broken half the time. Pycharm consistently always works but seems to periodically get very slow and need to be restarted. How is it this hard to make a good IDE?
https://posit.co/download/rstudio-desktop/
Tweet, 17:59 UTC · 22 likes
Inshallah next year I will be at vibecamp
Reply to @QualyThe, 18:10 UTC · 2 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): qalhamdullilah
Idk what this means but ya
Reply to @littIeramblings, 19:11 UTC · 2 likes
sarah (@littIeramblings): can I come
Ya I grant it
Tweet, 19:26 UTC · 2,843 likes
Has anybody done the “we used to get sick enough to lose tons of weight like several times a decade” theory of obesity
Thread, continued, 19:27 UTC · 689 likes
I’ve definitely heard people remark that getting violently ill was the easiest time they ever had losing weight
Reply to @ReflectiveAlt, 19:30 UTC · 24 likes
Reflective Altruism (@ReflectiveAlt): This is a leading effective altruist blogger
Correct takes. Maybe bad PR but definitely not wrong
Tweet, 19:32 UTC · 26 likes
1 karma/point/whatever:
On twitter: 🙂
On the EA Forum: ☺️😤🐓😎🥳🦐
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 19:34 UTC · 2 likes
Aaron Bergman, June 14, 2024: Correct takes. Maybe bad PR but definitely not wrong
Eh not even bad PR. This is a perfectly fine/polite way to write
Reply to @Rado9910, 19:45 UTC · 39 likes
Rado9910 (@Rado9910): Yeah:
(quoting @Rado9910: @ESYudkowsky I forgot: - more diseases and less efficient medicine, so more inflammation in the body. Even the baseline temperature was higher: 37 degrees vs about 36-ish today. Thread is misleading.)
Nice
Reply to @halogen1048576, 19:51 UTC · 3 likes
🇨🇦halogen (@halogen1048576): Nuño Sempere's "Unflattering aspects of Effective Altruism" blog post (https://nunosempere.com/blog/2024/03/05/unflattering-aspects-of-ea/) and Mollie Gleiberman's "Effective Altruism and the strategic ambiguity of ‘doing good’" paper (https://ideas.repec.org/p/iob/dpaper/2023.01.html) and
Not that forum engagement is necessarily sufficient but https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/coWvsGuJPyiqBdrhC/unflattering-aspects-of-effective-altruism
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 19:55 UTC · 2 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): Has no good answers to hard questions though
Well it does have answers
I agree they’re not good
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 22:21 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): @RYChappell If he posts any really good ea critiques I'll screenshot it for you. Don't hold your breath tho
Lol indeed. Before this at least I thought he was basically good faith but all his critiques have been terrible except like one paper from GPI I think
Saturday, June 15, 2024
Tweet, 04:04 UTC · 41 likes
Wanted: debate between @leopoldasch and @ESYudkowsky on the difficulty of alignment and what circumstances make catastrophic misalignment plausible, moderated by @dwarkesh_sp
Reply, 12:24 UTC
Wait maybe you can’t refuse to answer, you can only refuse to give your ideology. Sad. Evil, in fact
Reply to @PeterJAngel, 12:26 UTC · 2 likes
Peter🧅📈 (@PeterJAngel): What
image attached
(quoting @Amtrak: Joy, Sadness, Anger, Fear, Disgust, Anxiety, Envy, Embarrassment and Ennui... ...meet 🤪TRAIN FEVER🤪)
@QualyThe a friend
Reply to @selentelechia, 12:38 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @selentelechia is no longer available.)
What is he cooking
Reply to @Ruesavatar, 14:51 UTC · 5 likes
rue🌿 (@Ruesavatar): @selentelechia Omfg my daughter keeps telling me to stop drinking coffee, I also have no idea where she got this from. 😹 Easy for you to judge you tiny supernova human who sleeps like 12 hours a night 😹
Kids being told they can’t have caffeine by caretakers who very visibly consume caffeine might be one of the first such instances of “hypocrisy” (not saying it’s legit hypocrisy or bad) many children experience
Reply to @visakanv, 16:02 UTC · 2 likes
Visakan Veerasamy (@visakanv): I’m curious to understand the history of some symbols. Eg this means display, right? Who came up with that
Mr. LineSquareLine
Reply to @KatSpartz, 16:03 UTC · 2 likes
Kat Spartz ⏸️ 🔶 (@KatSpartz): I'm embarrassed for AI risk deniers every time they call AI safety a cult.
Calling somebody a cult is one of the most reliable signs of being mind-killed.
It's like calling people nazis or fascists.
Instant loss of credibility in my mind.
image attached
(quoting @KatSpartz: Climate change and AI safety have so many parallels Some people risk our lives and they say critics are just luddites They say "if there's any uncertainty, then we shouldn't prepare for bad outcomes" They manufacture doubt so they can keep raking in the big bucks and making…)
I mean it’s worth entertaining whether any given cult accusations are, in fact, about something that resembles what you and I would call a legit cult lol
But I agree 99% of the time it’s a mindless criticism
Reply to @AndyMasley, 16:08 UTC · 2 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @livgorton So good all the way through
One audible credit bites the dust
Reply to @cygadel, 18:01 UTC · 3 likes
foss (@cygadel): @AaronBergman18 @Ruesavatar @selentelechia Then it's probably better to let them try a sip of coffee, which they will naturally dislike because of their tastebuds.
N = 1 but this was me as a kid and I learned that coffee is delicious and awesome lol
Reply to @NoahTopper, 19:17 UTC · 2 likes
Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper): also wife
Bear
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 06:12 UTC · 3 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): 6 running, 6 w 30 lb pack and a bit of pacing/dog-walking because screw you quads!
How old are you??
Quote tweet, 16:47 UTC · 5 likes
Sucks that melanoma lives in the real physical world bc I want a sunscreen exemption
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @ohwizenedtortle Like I think I’m pretty attuned to people’s moods, status, things like that, but even still am introverted, care less than avg about social norms, high decoupling, easily overwhelmed by sensory input, EXTREME need for comfy clothes/prefer no tags lol
Reply, 18:38 UTC · 1 like
Any merit to this u think? Seems sus but also weird if it was coming from nowhere
Reply, 23:48 UTC
Also get well soon duh
Thread, continued, 23:52 UTC · 2 likes
Wait I got antibiotics a couple weeks ago and they didn’t even try to do one. Wtf. Link to a Wikipedia page or maybe just a drive link to a text file with base pairs would have been a banger consolation prize
Monday, June 17, 2024
Quote tweet, 00:55 UTC · 2 likes
Hear me out https://www.illumina.com/systems/sequencing-platforms/nextseq-1000-2000/
Quoting Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301): @AaronBergman18 (It costs two or three times more and sequencing takes up to 4-5 months after you submit the sample, so it has disadvantages)
Thread, continued, 00:55 UTC · 2 likes
I have 2331 followers, this is doable. It's what like 18 hours at Vibecamp?
Reply to @austinc3301, 02:15 UTC · 6 likes
Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301): I haven’t had amigdalitis since I was a child (I got part of my tonsils removed) and god I definitely remembered it too kindly with the constant ice cream
Thought u were about to become a crazy neuroscience case study at first
Reply to @austinc3301, 02:45 UTC · 5 likes
Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301): I forgot this doesn’t translate lol
El cerebro misterioso increíble de Agusto el Gran
Thread, continued, 02:47 UTC · 3 likes
Idk where the feet came from. I didn’t ask for that
Reply to @austinc3301, 02:56 UTC · 3 likes
Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301): I’m scared of that thing
So is Claude. Alignment has gone too far
Reply to @ZachWeiner, 05:15 UTC · 4 likes
Zach Weinersmith (@ZachWeiner): Dropped my jaw at this section
image attached
(quoting @TomChivers: A small announcement: my next book, Everything is Predictable, about how Bayes' theorem is the most important little equation in the world, is out in April and will look like this! If you'd like to pre-order, you can do so here https://geni.us/EIPBook and I will be very grateful)
(Courtesy of http://Claude.ai and http://longpost.lol. And me, sorta)
'''
Perhaps the most famous example was food scientist Brian Wansink, a star at Cornell University who received millions in funding under the Obama administration. (1/12)
Reply, 05:16 UTC · 1 like
When she arrived, Wansink gave her a failed self-funded study with null results on eating behavior at an all-you-can-eat Italian buffet. He told her: "This cost us a lot of time and our own money. (4/12)
Thread, continued, 05:17 UTC · 2 likes
There's got to be something here we can salvage because it's a cool (rich & unique) data set."
The student cut up the dataset in different ways and found enough p < 0.05 correlations to publish five papers, including the "men overeat to impress women" one. (5/12)
Reply to @bendunnflores, 16:07 UTC · 3 likes
bdf (@bendunnflores): Dear hive mind, can you help me with a good response to "my (grand)kids are your age" in a professional context?
“Yes I’d love to go on a date”
Quote tweet, 16:15 UTC · 10 likes
Uh seems like the kind of decision that a board could stop?
Quoting aaron holmes (@aaronpholmes): New: Sam Altman has told shareholders that OpenAI is considering becoming a for-profit company that would no longer be controlled by a nonprofit board https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-says-company-could-become-benefit-corporation-akin-to-rivals-anthropic-xai?utm_source=ti_app&rc=geicgp
Reply to @willdoingthings, 16:19 UTC · 2 likes
Lord Hollyhock (@willdoingthings): Sufficiently advanced autism is indistinguishable from schizophrenia
I don’t think this is true
Reply to @caesararum, 16:46 UTC · 8 likes
caesararum, BS, DOGS (@caesararum): @docentdemagogue yeah but there aren't enough truckers
but there ARE a lot of personal vehicles out there
c'mon, i know your F-150 is costing you $1000/month; why not make it pay for itself?
And most people can legally drive a pickup but not a larger van let alone an 18 wheeler
Reply to @LostLandshark, 17:20 UTC · 8 likes
Forgotten Landshark (@LostLandshark):
Reply to @anothercohen, 17:31 UTC · 2 likes
Alex Cohen (@anothercohen): Austin residential real estate is not having a good time
Haha YES
Reply to @cauliflwr_human, 17:35 UTC · 4 likes
cauli (back home!) (@cauliflwr_human): deepfates at the pharmacy be like: "there is no anti emetics division"
Tweet, 17:42 UTC · 17 likes
I know twitter is built into my brain bc yesterday a corner of a fitted sheet popped off and my brain immediately said “ABOLISH FITTED SHEETS” fully verbally formed and everything
Tweet, 18:01 UTC · 38 likes
Extropianism with its fellow acronymmates
(gif, plays on X)
Reply to @RafaRuizdeLira, 18:02 UTC · 2 likes
Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 (@RafaRuizdeLira): Still writing. Will try to finish it soon. Can't keep my ideas short and to the point 😞
Real
Reply to @inesferhumi, 18:11 UTC · 2 likes
Inés (@inesferhumi): @AaronBergman18 You were right though
Quote tweet, 18:58 UTC · 2 likes
What cool machines can u buy for <$100?
I feel like there might be alpha here
Quoting Caleb Watney (@calebwatney): idk why these wafer machines are getting so much hype, I bought this one for $30 on amazon
Reply to @littIeramblings, 19:04 UTC · 3 likes
sarah (@littIeramblings): question to any AI experts who follow me on here (+ anyone else who feels like weighing in) - how seriously do you take this blog post and the extremely short timelines it predicts?
(quoting @aidan_mclau: new essay on language model search. giving llms search (ability to think for a long time) might kick off asi this year, and basically nobody is paying attention https://yellow-apartment-148.notion.site/AI-Search-The-Bitter-er-Lesson-44c11acd27294f4495c3de778cd09c8d)
*sigh of relief at parenthetical clause so I can yap and speculate*
Tweet, 19:07 UTC · 129 likes
I bet the name “Claude” was workshopped by a bunch of well-paid consultants and brand experts and “chatGPT” was the first thing that popped into someone at OpenAI’s mind (maybe as a variable name originally, they always look like that [`model = “chatGPT” ’])
Reply to @arithmoquine, 19:12 UTC · 8 likes
henry (@arithmoquine): no way a consultant or brand expert came up with "claude" lmao
only a fellow shannon fanboy would advocate for something like that
They have a lot of money
I have a general sense that large companies do this kind of thing quite a bit
Reply to @littIeramblings, 19:23 UTC · 4 likes
sarah (@littIeramblings): speculate away
Sweet. Obligatory “idk what I’m talking about”
I’m skeptical for kinda illegible qualitative reasons. Like there is only so much information packed into a model of arbitrary size. You can make that info quality better and denser during training by increasing compute/data
Reply, 19:25 UTC · 1 like
given some fixed model output size (“number of parameters”) but that is different
And the model is *already* optimized to like configure itself so as to not need to do search (or else training loss could be lower by a few gradient descent steps). I think - someone can yell at
Thread, continued, 19:26 UTC · 2 likes
me if this is misinformed.
But throwing arbitrary thinking time/inference compute at the model doesn’t seem like the kind of thing that scales. Bc it feels like not the meaningful resource constraint. Maybe it gets you half an OOM or something, but that was already gonna happen
Thread, continued, 19:27 UTC · 1 like
in 6-12 months lol
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 19:36 UTC · 3 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): Utilitarians only! Would you sacrifice your life so that hundreds of millions of people could enjoy watching a soccer game?
I feel like my intuition here comes from the fact that irl people can just watch soccer games
Better framing is maybe a game getting canceled at the last minute. Which tbh I still wouldn’t do bc I am mostly selfish even if I’d kinda want to bite the bullet
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 20:57 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): @StefanFSchubert Has some hallmarks of a strategy that might perform worse than chance tbf
Broke: the stars are conspiring in your favor ✨
Woke: the stars are conspiring against you in financial markets
Tweet, 20:59 UTC · 15 likes
Writers block but for hinge openers
Reply to @JgaltTweets, 21:01 UTC · 3 likes
JgaltTweets (@JgaltTweets): The last job once AI has taken everything else
Sad but true
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 21:01 UTC · 4 likes
Aaron Bergman, June 17, 2024: Writers block but for hinge openers
Normally I’m good at yapping
Tweet, 21:56 UTC · 32 likes
I kinda wanna moan about the heat but it’s really not that bad bc air conditioning
So this is an air conditioning appreciation post
Thread, continued, 21:56 UTC · 4 likes
I did start looking for airbnbs in northern Canada/Greenland/Iceland but being realistic (sadly) I’m not gonna move to Iceland for a month lol
Thread, continued, 21:58 UTC · 9 likes
If you are British and don’t have A/C there is a 99.999% chance you’re being dumb and irrational
Status quo bias goes hard
Reply to @GjMcGowan, 22:05 UTC · 2 likes
George McGowan (@GjMcGowan): @AaronBergman18 No Aaron we’re just poor, and it’s rarely hot enough to need it, and planning regulations stop you getting window units
I kinda don’t believe that most people wouldn’t actually be better off buying it
Ik the poor thing is a meme but still
Reply to @young_opsimath, 22:10 UTC · 14 likes
young_opsimath ⏸️ (@young_opsimath): An EA attended Manifest 2024 and shared a bunch of observations and recommendations. I largely endorse this piece:
One of these is not like the others
Quote tweet, 22:11 UTC · 9 likes
Is “based” an edgy word? Descriptively, not prescriptively
Poll below
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @young_opsimath One of these is not like the others
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Reply to @JMannhart, 18:46 UTC · 2 likes
Jonathan Mannhart 🔎 (@JMannhart): @AaronBergman18 Cost me over 300€ to buy one in my student flat (top floor) to buy a mobile unit and then it didn‘t even work that well bc, the window made it difficult. That‘s not that easy to do if you‘re a student or don‘t have much money! You‘re definitely overconfident here imo
The significant figures will increase until the Brits start to shiver
99.9999%
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 18:48 UTC · 3 likes
Aaron Bergman, June 17, 2024: If you are British and don’t have A/C there is a 99.999% chance you’re being dumb and irrational Status quo bias goes hard
I regret to report that maybe it’s not quite 1/100k
Reply, 18:53 UTC
Fine, you don’t need A/C, enjoy ur pollen and pollutant-infused rain as you watch the clouds fade from dark grey to really dark grey at 4:37pm
Thread, continued, 18:54 UTC · 2 likes
This came off as kinda mean
I’m sure it’s lovely 😊
Reply to @Nexuist, 19:11 UTC · 93 likes
andi (twocents.com) (@Nexuist): The reason this was vetoed along with steps is that it was deemed too physically stressful to have to climb into and out of a cabin 100-400x per shift
This seems totally reasonable???
I will take the dorky ergonomic thing any day
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 02:33 UTC · 3 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): Damn the new MrBeast video is crazy
That’s it? Those are rookie numbers
Reply to @AndyMasley, 02:35 UTC · 2 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @JesseTayRiver The group who talk fast themselves
Hopefully this is a recursive thing and wpm just keeps increasing
Reply to @RichardHanania, 03:06 UTC · 4 likes
Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania): So much talent wasted during Republican administrations. Just hard to fathom why they would do this.
Reply to @EIFY, 03:13 UTC · 2 likes
EIFY (@EIFY): Not Claude Shannon?
I vote alligator
Reply to @norabelrose, 03:19 UTC · 4 likes
Taylor Belrose (@norabelrose): Idea I'm toying with: a system is sentient if and only if it is alive.
Simulations of living things can also be sentient, and edge cases are partially sentient. AI will be fully sentient when it becomes artificial life. https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/20323/
Uh seems almost certainly wrong?
Computer system designed to emulate architecture of human mind way more likely to be sentient than a blade of grass
Tweet, 03:24 UTC · 9 likes
There should be some sort of wonky market based decision procedure for which drugs are allowed at vibecamp
Reply, 03:34 UTC · 2 likes
lumberjack "migrate off this platform" wharfie (@lumbjackwharfie): THIS is design that is meant to haul stuff while also REFUSING to present an excess danger to everyone else around. Meanwhile we let anybody drive trucks from which they can't see anything.
(quoting @Nexuist: today i learned the Oshkosh NGDV (next generation delivery vehicle) looks like this because the USPS contract mandated that the cabin must be tall enough for a 95th percentile male (6'2) to stand up but low enough for a 5th percentile female (4'11) to see over the hood)
Based truck
Reply to @PeterJAngel, 03:38 UTC · 5 likes
Peter🧅📈 (@PeterJAngel): So like why do people dislike R^2?
I only know I got blocked by that one guy for asking what the R^2 of his paper results were
I’m an R^2 enjoyer
“variation in X explains ___% of variation in y” seems like a very natural and good q to ask, at least if you understand what all those words mean in a technical sense
Reply to @Ruesavatar, 03:59 UTC · 4 likes
rue🌿 (@Ruesavatar): Update: he was invited to her bday party. Today he went gift shopping for her with his dad and returned with a rope ladder. He explained that she loves to climb things so he wanted to give her something to climb. 🥺 She gave him a Minecraft clock for his bday be he’s into numbers
(quoting @Ruesavatar: There’s this girl in my kid’s school that he described as his enemy the entire first year. He hated her. He’d lament about how annoying she was every day. Then last year he started referring to her as his frenemy. Today she’s coming to his bday party. Interesting arc. 🧐)
More rizz than me
Reply to @rajlearns, 04:02 UTC · 2 likes
Raj Thimmiah (@rajlearns): What are people’s experiences doing breathing stuff?
I’ve been messing around with it because my default respiratory rate seems too high
Personally I like breathing. Much better than not breathing
Reply to @norabelrose, 04:05 UTC · 1 like
Taylor Belrose (@norabelrose): @AaronBergman18 I mean it depends on the details but the brain emulation would probably count as living in my view
Then what doesn’t? Specific brain architecture isn’t a property of life - we knew that iguanas and polar bears were alive before we knew how their thinking worked
If you just go on bio curricula then inability to reproduce is disqualifying
Quote tweet, 04:10 UTC · 2 likes
I would do this but I don’t think I have any mutual blocks lol
Most of the time ppl block me it’s just me disagreeing and that getting (perhaps reasonably) misinterpreted as like an insult or signaling antipathy
Quoting bayesian asian (42/50 paintings) (@etirabys): at VC3 I had a ~1.5h talk w a mutual block, mediated by a mutual mutual. 3 people I sorta knew spectated. We reached an ok resolution, unblocked, & got drunk together. due to the intensity of the disagreement the talk was stressful/sad but imo the format rocked, I love spectators
Reply to @AdsoOfBelk, 04:23 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @AdsoOfBelk is no longer available.)
Setting my height to 7’5” and saying I come from an inches feet culture
Tweet, 04:33 UTC · 12 likes
Based
Reply to @AlecStapp, 04:34 UTC · 3 likes
Alec Stapp (@AlecStapp): Holy shit
Wtf
Reply to @PoliticalKiwi, 04:35 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse🔸⏹️ (@PoliticalKiwi): For the last 8 years I've been following US elections as closely as just about anyone and I can say confidently that nothing will ever top this one. I was 16 at the time and I'll never forget how incredible it was to see a Democrat flip Alabama. Doesn't hurt I made a bunch of $$
(quoting @Nasaaeaoa: I wish I gave a shit about politics in 2017 so I could've witnessed this firsthand)
Did u hear about the 2020 POTUS election
Quote tweet, 04:36 UTC · 4 likes
Me when I tell my family I need to not talk for a while
Quoting Kristen Mulrooney (@missmulrooney): Me and my son are the only ones home tonight and he talked to me for 2 straight hours until I said "Hey bud I just need a half an hour to do a little bit of work," and he said sympathetically "I bet," then continued talking to me for another 2 hours.
Reply to @daniel_271828, 04:56 UTC · 2 likes
zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828): Pet peeve - when people defend an action by saying it’s “just XYZ”, where the action technically is XYZ but that’s not the thing people have a problem with.
Yes. Although sometimes it’s a dumb defense in the face of actual hyper-intolerance or willing to be charitable
Reply to @visakanv, 05:40 UTC · 3 likes
Visakan Veerasamy (@visakanv): Iirc people with brain damage that inhibits emotion, struggle to make decisions.
even “simple, obvious” decisions like “pick the larger reward” turns out to be downstream of an emotional understanding that bigger rewards are better
In what sense are they better without emotion?
Reply to @otis_reid, 05:42 UTC · 26 likes
Otis Reid (@otis_reid): Great example of a fact about numbers whose specificity (why >77?) is designed to infuriate — only matched by the fact that the proof involves writing out the cases for 78-333 and then doing induction from there
image attached
(quoting @AlgebraFact: Every integer greater than 77 is the sum of integers whose reciprocals sum to 1.)
Reply to @radbackwards, 05:42 UTC · 2 likes
dar (@radbackwards): Don’t ever let anyone tell you that you can’t project a movie on the side of your cows
U should project onto two different cows so they can watch too
Reply to @AFraserUrq, 10:56 UTC · 2 likes
Alastair Fraser-Urquhart (@AFraserUrq): How many Year 6s (10 years old) are taking themselves off to takeaways after school???
Completely unserious, I’m afraid.
image attached
(quoting @BBCNews: New takeaways banned in most parts of city https://bbc.in/3xksPkx)
Lol at banning type of business via zoning being the one British policy lever
Reply to @bschne, 11:04 UTC · 2 likes
Benjamin (@bschne): Just saw the difference between a budgeted and actual amount called "variance" on a dashboard
F
Quote tweet, 11:34 UTC · 37 likes
For better or worse
Quoting Chris Freiman (@cafreiman): Capitalism does seem kinda okay actually
Reply to @mbolotnikova, 12:12 UTC · 1 like
(The tweet being replied to by @mbolotnikova is no longer available.)
What the fuck
Tweet, 12:18 UTC · 1 like
.@mattyglesias makes a good case for the normie theory of obesity (I still think I disagree but nonetheless) https://open.substack.com/pub/matthewyglesias/p/are-ultra-processed-foods-really
Reply to @FrostedSapling, 12:19 UTC · 2 likes
Ivan 🔸 (@FrostedSapling): I answered yes, but not long corridors, instead on staircases
Chaotic neutral
Tweet, 20:44 UTC · 2 likes
Just like me fr
Reply to @NoahTopper, 21:13 UTC · 3 likes
Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper): @AaronBergman18 @PeterJAngel Silly stats people, R^2 is the coordinate plane
R^2 is a real nonnegative number that depends on R
Reply to @Mjreard, 21:15 UTC · 3 likes
Matt Reardon (@Mjreard): Update from deeper in the thread. Miles meant CEA/EAF team in this post and that they should be actively controlling what can be seen on the Forum (and other places I guess):
Yes I strongly agree. Any institution with the ability to become illiberal (eg by having moderators) will tend that way without active prioritization of, as you say, “openness”, even if that means hosting abhorrent ideas
Reply to @livgorton, 21:16 UTC · 3 likes
Liv (@livgorton): it turns out travelling with a 2 month old puppy is stressful actually. flight has been delayed and she’s gone full velociraptor mode attempting to destroy the carrier (but at least she’s not crying anymore 😅)
but she is just so so cute and is having little calm moments ❤️
Since when do u have a puppy
Reply, 21:16 UTC · 1 like
🇨🇦😌
Reply to @Kirsten3531, 21:20 UTC · 3 likes
Kirsten (@Kirsten3531): @AaronBergman18 @livgorton Aaron yearns for Uranium City 🇨🇦
Indeed, she’s beautiful
Reply to @livgorton, 22:07 UTC · 2 likes
Liv (@livgorton): Clover 🍀
Poast twitter @
Reply, 22:13 UTC · 1 like
I think you’re the only person who thinks this is bad
Reply to @jaybaxter, 22:16 UTC · 2 likes
Jay Baxter (@jaybaxter): Note needed: no, I am not the CEO of "Notes Community" 😅
Idk I’d take the title
Reply to @austinc3301, 22:20 UTC · 2 likes
Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301): what was so hard about just joining Anthropic, come on
Yeah
Reply to @mattyglesias, 22:31 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mattyglesias is no longer available.)
@QualyThe ur hometown
Reply to @ApriiSR, 22:32 UTC · 3 likes
Aprii *️⃣ (@ApriiSR): @TetraspaceWest it was incredible but in retrospect that did make it a little difficult to tease apart what exactly caused which parts of getting over my depression
Based
Reply to @peterwildeford, 22:33 UTC · 12 likes
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford): @livgorton @absurdlymax Wow, it only gets worse in context.
All in 1 paragraph:
- "pro-natalist": cringe
- "the fertility question": cringe
- "man talking about his family is gay": wtf
- "take a risk of becoming a homosexual": wtf x2
- "kids in their profile pics" is akin to Hamas terrorism: major wtf
The “take a risk” line is a self-aware joke, I’m 95% sure
Reply to @augurydefier, 22:37 UTC · 12 likes
slice (@augurydefier): what's your current PHQ-9 score? see image in reply
11 but annoyed bc I think much of this is either rational or physiogenic, having experienced “actual” depression
Reply to @peterwildeford, 22:50 UTC · 5 likes
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford): @AaronBergman18 @livgorton @absurdlymax I don't get it
It’s obviously not true that he’s gonna become gay, he’s laughing at his own “intuition” mentioned previously
Tweet, 22:54 UTC · 9 likes
Superintelligence is when Spotify can predict what song I will have wanted to start playing better than I can
Reply, 22:57 UTC
Yeah
Reply to @SelonNerias, 22:59 UTC · 3 likes
Selon Nerias (@SelonNerias): @AaronBergman18 @augurydefier I'm at 7 and pretty surprised your score is that high, you come across as less fd up than me (I have bipolar).
Lol yeah I’m pretty physically fucked up atm which definitely manifests as some of these
Reply to @snuppydogg, 23:07 UTC · 4 likes
snuppydogg (@snuppydogg): You'll have to be more specific
What’s that tweet that’s like
Wars in europe are always like “8 people died and the barn was taken”
Wars in china are always like “192 million people died, 266 million if you include famine”
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Tweet, 00:00 UTC · 81 likes
I personally have a high bar for muting and very high bar for blocking but boy does this guy have bad takes
Reply to @Rado9910, 00:22 UTC · 25 likes
Rado9910 (@Rado9910): @AaronBergman18 Like... what?
Insinuating EA is at fault for manifest doing something (I’ll post more)
Thread, continued, 00:28 UTC · 37 likes
A general thing is like branding as a criticizer of EA and then talking about things that are many links away in some social or intellectual graph
So the idea here is EA <> ACX <> white supremacy (the third order thing isn’t even is true but even if it was like give me a break)
Thread, continued, 00:30 UTC · 22 likes
Likewise
Thread, continued, 00:35 UTC · 26 likes
This thread is literally self-explanatory
I’ll pause for now but I’m sure I could find more
Reply to @hyperdiscogirl, 00:36 UTC · 8 likes
hyper(bolic) disco(unting) girl in the bay (@hyperdiscogirl): gender || do you sometimes pretend you don't want to cross the road when you actually do so an oncoming car doesn't stop to let you cross
Yeah bc it’s dumb for a car to come to a full stop if letting it through would cost me .1 seconds
Reply to @absurdlymax, 05:59 UTC · 4 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): Sometimes I'll tweet about EA and then someone will reply like 'that's a cult for idiots' but in a way that makes me think they don't realize I'm an EA
I’m honestly more confident that it’s not an idiot thing than that it’s not a cult
Everyone smart af
Quote tweet, 06:03 UTC · 15 likes
Evidential decision theory
Quoting Someone:
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 06:12 UTC · 12 likes
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): Who cares? The quality of twitter discourse is not what I'm working to preserve. Strikes me as incredibly vain and silly to complain that your online group isn't as elite and smart anymore. No acknowledgement that more ppl knowing about the problem is worth a lot.
(quoting @EigenGender: when I first got into Twitter in mid 2022 I was very impressed by the epistemic standards of the AI Safety community and this played a nontrivial role in my career journey to doing AI safety work full time. I don’t think I’d see the same quality today)
Quality of discourse in general seems instrumentally helpful to actually doing ai safety though lol
Quote tweet, 06:36 UTC · 7 likes
Wow
Quoting Trevor Bingham (@22TrevorBingham): First World Pause Coalition protest in Ghana, Africa.
From Jean Barreau, WPC organizer for Africa:
"The first protest of the World Pause Coalition Ghana Chapter held today, June 19 at the US Embassy in Ghana has been a great success. The cooperation of the local authorities has been very helpful. We are making plans to have the next protest in another location. Hundreds of flyers have been distributed and the receivers have received the message with deep appreciation and interest. Thank you."
Reply to @animalologist, 06:38 UTC · 2 likes
taco belle (@animalologist): This feels like a metaphor for the dating scene
(quoting @animalologist: I own so many socks but so few are in pairs)
The dating scene is a metaphor for my socks
Reply to @norabelrose, 06:53 UTC · 9 likes
Taylor Belrose (@norabelrose): The hard problem of consciousness ~entirely dissolves if you're an anti-realist about science.
Science gives us useful models for predicting and controlling things, but does not uniquely tell us about the fundamental nature of reality.
I don’t see how the hard problem depends on any of this and I also don’t think your second sentence implies anti-realism (like presumably many philosophers who talk about this stuff also thing *philosophy* is as epistemically legitimate as science)
Reply to @tescrealaccist, 06:54 UTC · 3 likes
TESCREAL/acc💙 (@tescrealaccist): The Bentham bulldog poaster 100% does not lift, which is why it’s annoying when Scott or Tyler link out to him
Cmon man this is basically just bullying
Reply to @keysmashbandit, 07:36 UTC · 5 likes
keysmashbandit (@keysmashbandit): ? most theorems are one (1) sentence
(quoting @TonyTheLion2500: Undergrad/grad students in math have to memorize theorems for exams??? 😭😭😭😭💀 I could never do that. Kudos if you can!)
Yeah but they’re quite informationally dense by design
Some math courses do feel a lot like memorizing vocab
Tweet, 14:46 UTC · 2 likes
FYI Google made it hard to download YouTube videos (I wonder why) so it’s gonna take a little while to get the recent EAG talks on the podcast feed
Reply to @adambinksmith, 14:50 UTC · 1 like
Adam Binksmith (@adambinksmith): there's this nice command-line utility for it (I ask gpt-4 to write the commands): https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp
Big if true, will report back
Friday, June 21, 2024
Quote tweet, 03:25 UTC · 2 likes
Yo
Quoting Alex Albert (@alexalbert__): Back to PRs, Claude 3.5 Sonnet is the first model I've seen change the timelines of some of the best engineers I know.
This is a real quote from one of our engineers after Claude 3.5 Sonnet fixed a bug in an open source library they were using.
Reply to @AndyMasley, 03:28 UTC · 6 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): Asked Claude to code me a world map
This is a scissor statement, I bet
Easy to see through whichever lense (AI not smart/AI very smart) you prefer
Thread, continued, 03:30 UTC · 4 likes
Honestly I’d have guessed that it would do better but in an absolute sense it’s pretty wild that this is from a model (I’m pretty sure) not actually trained to draw anything (multimodal only for the inputs right?)
Tweet, 03:39 UTC · 40 likes
Lmao
Thread, continued, 03:45 UTC · 11 likes
After a couple iterations providing the resulting image. Not bad!
Reply to @thiagovscoelho, 05:08 UTC · 3 likes
Thiago ✱ (@thiagovscoelho): If you criticize practical actions by EAs, they’re usually very small parts of the movement, so you should still be pro-EA overall. If you criticize core ideas —like me, +@lymanstoneky against focusing on animal welfare— then you’re really anti-EA, but it’s hard for them to care.
(quoting @AaronBergman18: I personally have a high bar for muting and very high bar for blocking but boy does this guy have bad takes)
FWIW “EA” at large is way closer to the “ignore animals” end of the spectrum than “care a lot about animals”. Animal welfare gets only a small fraction of the money and other resources
I think this is bad unsurprisingly (see https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/btTeBHKGkmRyD5sFK/open-phil-should-allocate-most-neartermist-funding-to-animal?commentId=EiayxnzzyXssfJobJ)
Reply to @adambinksmith, 05:10 UTC · 2 likes
Adam Binksmith (@adambinksmith): there's this nice command-line utility for it (I ask gpt-4 to write the commands): https://github.com/yt-dlp/yt-dlp
True ergo big
It works. It looks like the code is actively managed pretty aggressively presumably in response to whatever obstacles google throws up, i just never updated the library (Until today) bc im dumb
Reply to @young_opsimath, 07:00 UTC · 1 like
young_opsimath ⏸️ (@young_opsimath): @AaronBergman18 Huh interesting, I got a different result
*Stochastic* parrot
Reply, 12:21 UTC · 1 like
I mean interpersonal utility (philosophy form) comparisons are like extremely obviously legit to me
It is worse for bob to be tortured than for Tim to get a papercut
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 13:07 UTC · 2 likes
Aaron Bergman, May 25, 2024: Load bearing
Load bearing
Reply to @Bbburner19, 13:23 UTC · 2 likes
The People Mover That Was Promised (@Bbburner19): @AaronBergman18 Why were you shirtless here?
It’s hot af
Reply to @AndyMasley, 14:25 UTC · 6 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): Soylent or Huel need to come out with a nutritionally complete coffee creamer. It would change the game
Creamer with appreciable protein is not gonna be great
Reply to @arithmoquine, 14:49 UTC · 2 likes
henry (@arithmoquine): 16th today (✨, 🎉 even.)
- too old to larp as a cracked kid on the internet
- too young to rent a car
- finally old enough to stop combatting child labor laws
Happy birthday, the one true hbd
Quote tweet, 22:54 UTC · 12 likes
This is the first and only “sign up now for a FREE…” that will ever work on me
Quoting Jonathan Birch (@birchlse): Can octopuses feel pain and pleasure? What about crabs and insects? Or organoids, fetuses, future AI? Still time to sign up for a free PDF of my book "The Edge of Sentience: Risk and Precaution in Humans, Others Animals, and AI", out 15 August: http://www.edgeofsentience.com
Tweet, 23:08 UTC · 7 likes
There’s gotta be an arbitrage with Spotify for Podcasters apparently being willing to host an infinite amount of high quality video, forever, for free
Thread, continued, 23:10 UTC · 2 likes
Yes YouTube is like this but they don’t give you an RSS feed with direct public download links
Saturday, June 22, 2024
Tweet, 03:24 UTC · 8 likes
The best—dare I say most cracked—Mac apps are the ones that do exactly one technical operation but a zillion times faster than whatever the fastest normal person (even normal tech-literate) method is
Thread, continued, 03:24 UTC · 3 likes
Idk how u managed to beat ffmpeg conversions by like 10x but good job
Reply to @simulacrababy, 16:42 UTC · 2 likes
annika💒 (@simulacrababy): my brother is doing research in ecuador this summer and he just sent me this pic
This looks like the archetypal mammal
Reply to @NoahTopper, 16:43 UTC · 2 likes
Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper): The request: Split a medium fry in half and apply Cajun seasoning to just one half. This was apparently beyond the reasoning abilities of five whole guys.
(quoting @NoahTopper: @visakanv @Aella_Girl Tried this just yesterday for a special request at Five Guys! It failed miserably.)
If it had been 4 or 6 guys it probably would have worked
Quote tweet, 17:09 UTC · 6 likes
When he’s right he’s right
Quoting Yann LeCun (@ylecun): Thoughts exist without language.
Reply to @hbdchick, 21:35 UTC · 3 likes
hbd chick (@hbdchick): 👀🤷🏻♀️
I have nothing against pope Francis but maybe they should hear him out
Reply to @liron, 21:37 UTC · 8 likes
Liron Shapira (@liron): It's crazy to me that Steven Pinker, one of the smartest intellectuals we've got, is so dismissive of the argument for AI extinction risk.
*Is* he one of the smartest intellectuals?
Quote tweet, 21:55 UTC · 12 likes
Tf is characterAI
Quoting Deedy (@deedydas): Most people don't realize how many young people are extremely addicted to CharacterAI.
Users go crazy in the Reddit when servers go down. They get 250M+ visits/mo and ~20M monthly users, largely in the US.
Most impressively, they see ~2B queries a day, 20% of Google Search!!
Thread, continued, 22:02 UTC · 7 likes
Wait this is actually cool lol
Might become addicted
Reply to @ozyfrantz, 23:31 UTC · 2 likes
ozy brennan 🦙 (@ozyfrantz): TIL that Terrence Howard, who played Rhodey in Iron Man, is a math crank. His system is called Terryology and it proves that 1x1=2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrence_Howard#Terryology_and_other_beliefs
Let’s hear him out
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Reply to @focusfronting, 00:58 UTC · 6 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @focusfronting is no longer available.)
I don’t know what any of this means (tweet included)
Reply to @acesounderglass, 01:08 UTC · 1 like
Elizabeth Van Nostrand (@acesounderglass): Starting a case study on chaos theory. My first question: can a butterfly in brazil actually cause a tornado in texas? surely that small an effect can't propagate that far?
Computer models show that "tiny" effects make huge differences but are they actually butterfly-wing tiny?
Idk anything in particular about chaos theory but I suspect the answer depends mostly on what you want “cause” to mean here
Also there’s like an induction thing of “well if the butterfly wing cause something 10x more causally potent 1 meter away bc of chaos theory” then this
Reply to @PeterJAngel, 01:18 UTC · 3 likes
Peter🧅📈 (@PeterJAngel): Can be people be wrong about their subjective experiences?
Yeah and while obv not an expert I’m probably in at least the 99.99th percentile of time spent thinking about this question
See here
Reply to @PeterJAngel, 02:30 UTC · 2 likes
Peter🧅📈 (@PeterJAngel): I'm pretty much fully Parfit pilled. Reductionism for the win
Qualia is real. People aren't
I agree but these do seem like pretty different issues tbc
Reply, 02:35 UTC · 1 like
Did you tell it what you were gonna say to get the screenshot? I tried this (not a ton of effort but still) and it was << Eliza
Tweet, 02:38 UTC · 8 likes
The diagnostic-treatment criteria in medicine should be such that patients are not made worse off by being slightly healthier and therefore too healthy to qualify for some treatment
Thread, continued, 02:38 UTC · 2 likes
I think there are many areas in which this is not generally the case (lots of endocrine stuff, having to be obese to get semaglitude)
Reply to @Laura_k_Duffy, 03:54 UTC · 3 likes
Laura Muresianu 🌐🔸🇺🇸 (@Laura_k_Duffy): SOMEBODY has to tell them they need to stock more yogurt
Have u considered getting a cow
Thread, continued, 03:55 UTC · 2 likes
And some bacteria powder but I’m guessing this isn’t the constraint
Reply to @JoePostingg, 04:46 UTC · 12 likes
Joe (@JoePostingg): Democrats need to keep Jamaal Bowman in the House. Nobody else in their caucus can move this much mass. https://x.com/i/status/1676942821494751235/video/1
He just like me fr (sometimes wears white t-shirts)
Reply to @no_earthquake, 04:54 UTC · 2 likes
no earthquake (cut his fingers) (@no_earthquake): in an attempt at normalization i’m trying to convince my hot friends of how cool my ac jacket is
Wait what
Quote tweet, 05:18 UTC · 8 likes
GPT-4 and Claude Opus, let alone the new Sonnet, seem better than me at almost everything *that they do*
The only thing they’re “not as good as people yet” at are things that don’t involve image+text input and text output
Quoting Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): My experience in basically all AI discourse is saying "Wow LLMs are much more capable than I expected them to be" and a bunch of people swooping in to say "You idiot, they're not as good as people yet, and make simple mistakes" and like yes obviously
Tweet, 05:32 UTC · 648 likes
Humans only dominate land use above water, apparently
Thread, continued, 05:32 UTC · 71 likes
Super Mario shit. Surprisingly cool creature https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_cucumber
Reply to @softminus, 05:47 UTC · 32 likes
Miss Distance (@softminus): people post the former quote about the economics of precision guided munitions in counterinsurgency operations or stuff but the context of the quote in the original text is...rather different from the vibe people usually are going for by quoting it:
They also took out the “so” which suggests another clause is coming
Quote tweet, 06:02 UTC · 43 likes
Tired take but man it is so dumb the simulators gave us an infinite energy glitch rock and we’re like “nah”
Quoting James Clark 📈📉¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (@mr_james_c): The dumbest part of this is that France runs a majority of its energy via nuclear, so running AC has zero emissions.
We need to stop equating energy reduction with emissions reductions. It's so stupid.
Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 06:14 UTC · 11 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): We need to cultivate cucumber power
I read the last word as “powder” first and was like “no let them be!!!”
Reply to @kindgracekind, 07:06 UTC · 19 likes
Grace (@kindgracekind): But are they happy?
Idk I hope so!!!
Reply to @joshua_saxe, 08:14 UTC · 4 likes
Joshua Saxe (@joshua_saxe): After a couple days playing with it it seems Claude 3.5 Sonnet unlocks LLM applications that weren't possible with GPT4 and challenges the "LLMs have plateaued" thesis
Bro u have to elaborate it’s illegal to leave a tweet like this
Thread, continued, 08:17 UTC · 2 likes
Unrelatedly this is a good example of a bio that gets an instant follow
Reply to @bengrossbg, 10:25 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @bengrossbg is no longer available.)
?¿?
Reply to @202accepted, 11:06 UTC · 2 likes
𝚓𝚒𝚖𝚖𝚢 (@202accepted): giving a girl free medical advice is 6th base but if you send her a bill it’s -6 bodies
(quoting @sparab22: Not sure what stage of the relationship this is, but during our date, the girl I’m seeing complained about strong tooth pain. I took a photo and got 4 different dentists’ quick thoughts. Walked through her dental insurance coverage and coached how to navigate getting an early…)
This is my specialty
Quote tweet, 11:51 UTC · 33 likes
Cool thread but now I want to know: what jobs are legitimately fake/unimportant/non-functional?
Quoting William B. Fuckley (@opinonhaver): What jobs sound super ‘fake’ but are actually extremely ‘real’?
By that I mean you read the description and think something like “oh ok this is just some bullshit email job” but the actual reality is “no lots of people would definitely die if someone didn’t do this”
Monday, June 24, 2024
Quote tweet, 04:34 UTC · 130 likes
They built the entire field of AI safety like a decade before it would have otherwise developed, if it would have at all??
Quoting Someone:
Reply to @angryfermion, 04:38 UTC · 2 likes
😡fermion, PhD (@angryfermion): what a doofus
Idk either
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 04:43 UTC · 25 likes
Aaron Bergman, June 24, 2024: They built the entire field of AI safety like a decade before it would have otherwise developed, if it would have at all??
If this doesn’t parse as success, that’s fine, but it does on the rats’ own terms
Reply to @AFraserUrq, 09:54 UTC · 15 likes
Alastair Fraser-Urquhart (@AFraserUrq): I have just drunk several million salmonella bacteria on purpose for a clinical study: AMA!
🫡
My roommate is doing a dysentery human challenge trial rn. Ty both for your service. Question: how does it feel to be so based?
Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 10:22 UTC · 4 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): Cool! What's the study about?
Salmonella
Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 10:27 UTC · 2 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): @AaronBergman18 @AFraserUrq Yeah but how much?
Several million
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Reply to @PradyuPrasad, 07:03 UTC · 3 likes
Pradyumna 🇸🇬 (@PradyuPrasad): we're so back
Ok but recycling is mostly* dumb
* not metal, that’s worth recycling
Reply to @RafaRuizdeLira, 09:00 UTC · 2 likes
Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 (@RafaRuizdeLira): @austinc3301 This is what my retweets are 🍷🧐
Likewise 🎩
Reply to @RafaRuizdeLira, 16:21 UTC · 3 likes
Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 (@RafaRuizdeLira): @ea_paddington @AaronBergman18 Bear 🐻
Bear
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Reply to @panickssery, 00:29 UTC · 5 likes
Arjun Panickssery (@panickssery): Trump White House spent $100,000 on modafinil from 2017–2019 lol
Based
Reply to @strangestloop, 00:31 UTC · 5 likes
Loopy (@strangestloop): chat is this real
I think so
Reply to @robertwiblin, 15:28 UTC · 6 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @robertwiblin is no longer available.)
Banger
Reply to @focusfronting, 15:36 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @focusfronting is no longer available.)
Tyfys 🙏
Reply to @NoahTopper, 16:16 UTC · 2 likes
Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper): @austinc3301 @AaronBergman18 you don’t get to like this tweet unless you’ve read Unsong
Fine
Reply to @NoahTopper, 16:23 UTC · 2 likes
Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper): @AaronBergman18 @austinc3301 You were supposed to go read Unsong, not unlike my tweet 😭
😈
Reply to @_deepfates, 18:01 UTC · 5 likes
_(The tweet being replied to by @deepfates is no longer available.)
I don’t think that’s true
Reply to @StatsLime, 18:02 UTC · 3 likes
Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime): the mind-body dualists are trying to censor me on Twitter, but I refuse to be silent: physicalism is not hate speech @elonmusk
False positive fr
Reply to @a_real_society, 18:39 UTC · 3 likes
society (@a_real_society): The week I took the LSAT I also had 20 hours of interviews, including a 2 hour technical interview that ended minutes before I started the exam
Oof
Thread, continued, 18:41 UTC · 2 likes
Reminds me of this cursed day
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 21:05 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): @jskf__ Nimby, but for rodents
😢🐿️
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Reply to @Duderichy, 18:46 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @Duderichy is no longer available.)
Problem with sugar is that it makes everything (including ur fave obesogenic nutrient/food group) taste better, not the sugar itself
Thread, continued, 18:51 UTC · 2 likes
Compare to white rice which is really quite similar nutritionally. Can’t add white rice to peanut butter or oil to make frosting etc
Quote tweet, 19:54 UTC · 9 likes
Humans be different from each other fr
Quoting Alessandro (@polisisti): in one (1) week, I'm going to spend 90 minutes playing this organ as a birthday present to myself, and I'm super excited :)
Tweet, 21:37 UTC · 24 likes
Almost got Mark Cuban'd
Not caught by spam filter, be careful
Friday, June 28, 2024
Quote tweet, 08:59 UTC · 7 likes
I absolutely do not have the money for this to make legible sense but I am anti-frugal when it comes to this
Yeah, spend like $60/mo to get a better glimpse into the future. It’s wild that a human-level clippy is even this cheap. This is the last thing I will be saving money on
Quoting sophie (@netcapgirl): when you have to subscribe to a bunch of different LLMs in order to keep up, after this exact same thing happened with streaming services
Reply, 09:41 UTC · 1 like
Poast regex
Quote tweet, 10:33 UTC · 8 likes
I have the same intuition as everyone else but what’s the actual correlation between seeming old on TV and cognition or productivity?
Personal experience is limited but suggests the answer is “not as high as you’d naively expect”
Quoting delaniac 🌹🌱 (@ChadNotChud): you guys stop ragging on Biden it’s just his stutter
Tweet, 10:35 UTC · 2 likes
Recorded a mediocre thing https://youtu.be/2l-6KQnT6I8
Reply to @AndyMasley, 10:44 UTC · 2 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @economeager I was on the fence about getting more involved in EA a few years ago and then in my old job was exposed to a charity where people read stories over Zoom to dogs
How do I sign up
Tweet, 11:17 UTC · 157 likes
Do people realize Biden is POTUS *right now*?
Conditional on what you make of his performance at literally doing the job rn, watching him for an hour on TV should be only a tiny update at the margin
Thread, continued, 11:17 UTC · 13 likes
Like maybe he is too old! But if so you should have concluded that by yesterday morning!
Reply to @DavidSartor0, 11:56 UTC · 2 likes
David Sartor (@DavidSartor0): @AaronBergman18 "the same intuition as everyone else"
Which one? I'm not sure I have much of what you're talking about.
Looks too old
Reply to @austinc3301, 12:45 UTC · 4 likes
Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301): 7 bucks for a normal bottle of water at the airport,,,
If only Biden was a bit sharper
Reply, 13:12 UTC · 1 like
🤝
Reply, 13:15 UTC · 2 likes
Yes, falsifiability is overrated in general and hardly a virtue in one-shot contexts like this
It’s just normal Bayesian evidence all the way down…
Thread, continued, 13:16 UTC · 2 likes
If you say smth only has a one in a trillion chance of happening and then it happens, it’s true that maybe you were just really unlucky but it’s much more likely that you were wrong about the ex ante probability
1%, 10%, 40%, and 49.9% are differences of degree not kind
Reply to @Tymtweet, 13:22 UTC · 166 likes
Tym🔸️ (@Tymtweet): Do your homies text like this?
I wish
Reply to @Tymtweet, 13:36 UTC · 3 likes
Tym🔸️ (@Tymtweet): I can hook you up man. Also this morning I was looking at https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ which can give csv downloads and has some insane data
🙏🙏🙏
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 13:52 UTC · 17 likes
Aaron Bergman, June 28, 2024: Like maybe he is too old! But if so you should have concluded that by yesterday morning!
Yeah this is a good counterargument
Reply to @adrusi, 14:35 UTC · 2 likes
autumn (@adrusi): people see something happen and think that it means something
made myself saner relative the the population baseline by not watching this debate
Certain events are schelling points that function to make common knowledge of some sort (whether or not that was ever intended)
The case for caring about the debate is that everyone at least moderately engaged in politics knows that everyone else knows what happened (and if
Tweet, 14:44 UTC · 15 likes
Chevron Deference overturned?!
My cached opinion is that this is extremely bad for state capacity and competent governance. I would love to be convinced otherwise
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4745680-supreme-court-chevron-case/damp/
Thread, continued, 14:44 UTC · 4 likes
Tbh I didn’t think SCOTUS would rule this way because of a maybe naive prior on the justices not liking to unilaterally radically reshape the federal government
Reply to @NathanB60857242, 15:03 UTC · 2 likes
Nathan Barnard (@NathanB60857242): @AaronBergman18 I think it's fine, agencies were powerful and capable pre-1984, and it seems plausible that Chevron was overly differential to agencies. Like it's not clear why the executive branch should be able to decide unchecked what ambiguous law means.
I hope you’re right but no this is the mechanism by which congress can delegate complicated, technical, messy, changes-over-time stuff
This becomes more important the less functional and responsive congress is, and pre-1984 we had a much more functional congress afaik
Reply, 15:09 UTC
I agree in some abstract first principles sense but I think the actual impact will be that most the “questions of law” that would have been handed over to an agency just disappear, not that they get written by congress instead
Tweet, 16:01 UTC · 2 likes
Last paragraph
Tweet, 16:21 UTC · 81 likes
Fascinating that “abolish the FDA” is fringe and radical whereas “neuter every single federal agency, fundamentally transforming the powers of the federal government for better or worse” is, well, evidently inside “the” Overton window
Thread, continued, 16:21 UTC · 15 likes
Hey I like weird and radical ideas. Sometimes they are good. But something is off if the second thing above sounds way more plausibly good than the first. Something something feminist bankteller
Thread, continued, 16:23 UTC · 10 likes
Tbf to get the feminist bankteller thing, you’d want to compare “radically weaken the FDA” with “overturn Chevron”
Yeah I still think this checks out as like either the first thing is super tame or the second is super radical but neither of these sound intuitively right
Reply to @reubgold, 17:04 UTC · 3 likes
Reuben (@reubgold): https://trase.earth/open-data here's where I got it from, it's more for sustainability reporting than anything else
@SpacedOutMatt if anyone has a good use for shrimp supply chain data
Reply to @astridwilde, 18:01 UTC · 2 likes
Astrid Wilde 🌞 (@astridwilde): you are confused by the legal victory of the memeplex where Consequentialist legal theories are literally spoken as curse words because you're trying to understand it in a Consequentialist frame. forgive me for this but, get wrecked 😎
I am confused by the general contours of my mutuals’ attitudes, not by SCOTUS. I “stand by” my confusion too bc I think very few of the people I’m talking about even have a jurisprudential ideology they could name, and politically generally cluster around
Thread, continued, 18:06 UTC · 5 likes
pragmatic libertarian-leaning neoliberalism, which features state incompetence and scleroticism as complaints way more than fundamental principled objections to the roles western governments have assumed over the last century
Thread, continued, 18:10 UTC · 4 likes
I should probably avoid writing a whole essay lol but FWIW I’ve been tweeting and thinking about Chevron as a policy separate from the legitimacy of the process that created it and just now overturned it
Tbh I’m pretty agnostic about whether the recent ruling was “correct”
Quote tweet, 18:21 UTC · 40 likes
Real decoupling hours: who’s writing the “Chevron is correct jurisprudence and terrible for society” take and who’s writing “Chevron is good for society but bad jurisprudence (and so today’s decision was correct)” ?
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @astridwilde I should probably avoid writing a whole essay lol but FWIW I’ve been tweeting and thinking about Chevron as a policy separate from the legitimacy of the process that created it and just now overturned it
Tbh I’m pretty agnostic about whether the recent ruling was “correct”
Reply to @RichardHanania, 18:25 UTC · 5 likes
Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania): New article where I explain that Biden won’t quit because being old sucks and the only thing that can possibly make it tolerable is something as cool as being president of the United States. https://www.richardhanania.com/p/biden-wont-quit-because-being-old
My intuition is the total opposite lol
There’s a reason retired people aren’t known for taking on as much stress-inducing responsibility as possible
Reply, 22:14 UTC
I have my own partial genome, at a minimum could compare. Will be interesting whether the samples are human or animal
Reply, 22:25 UTC
Poast
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 22:35 UTC · 21 likes
Aaron Bergman, July 17, 2023: This is an open invitation to always send me any csv’s u stumble across. Idc how, drive link or url or just paste it into DM or reply I love a good csv 🙏🏼
Update: csv should be taken as a symbolic umbrella term which covers tsv, txt, json, and any other structured text data. .Rdata would be cool too
The more the merrier until I run out of cloud storage (1.5TB to go and that’s not a hard limit)
Saturday, June 29, 2024
Reply to @yzilber, 05:58 UTC · 2 likes
Jazi Zilber (@yzilber): same for Roe
(quoting @AaronBergman18: Real decoupling hours: who’s writing the “Chevron is correct jurisprudence and terrible for society” take and who’s writing “Chevron is good for society but bad jurisprudence (and so today’s decision was correct)” ?)
I haven’t written anything longer than this but yeah
Reply to @JacquesThibs, 06:06 UTC · 6 likes
Jacques (@JacquesThibs): anthropic made me feel the agi today
Did I miss smth ¿
Tweet, 06:42 UTC · 3 likes
Ok I am actually not super worried but definitely do not go hang out with livestock (and this is a thing people who follow me do! No farm sanctuary trips or feeding wild animals (😢)!
Quote tweet, 21:02 UTC · 39 likes
What goes on over here
Quoting Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE): The side of planet Earth we aren't used to seeing.
Reply to @gmiller, 21:17 UTC · 6 likes
Geoffrey Miller (@gmiller): What I fear could happen in October:
The Democrats will lose the White House unless they come up with a truly game-changing 'hail mary' strategy.
Given their willingness to demonize their opponents as 'violent insurrectionists', one logical option would be to stage a false flag 'terrorist attack' with a high death count that can be blamed on 'far-right MAGA extremists'.
It would need to be a very dramatic attack on some place that's sacred to Leftist values, and/or on some people who make highly sympathetic victims.
It would need to happen shortly before the election, so there's not enough time to fully investigate its true organizers & funders.
It would need some plausible patsies, recruited, funded, & incited by government handlers.
Conservatives must expect this, brace for it, & be prepared to counter it.
If you think the Democratic true believers, who consider Trump an 'existential threat to American democracy', would never contemplate such a thing, you haven't been paying attention. They will do whatever it takes to retain power. Period.
And if you think such false flag attacks never happen, or never work, please read some history, starting with the 1933 Reichstag fire that gave the Nazis a pretext for locking in absolute power in Germany.
I hope I'm wrong about this. But I fear that panicked desperation will lead the Democrats to do some truly heinous things.
Give me a fucking break lol
Quote tweet, 21:26 UTC · 5 likes
Computers are fake, no way u can spend 8 hours constantly doing math and not make a single mistake
Quoting SoggyKiwi 🥝🧬🏳️⚧️🏴 (@KiwiSoggy): bro i friggen hate working with large datasets wtf 8 hours just to compute a single metric?? killing myself
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 21:27 UTC · 3 likes
Aaron Bergman, June 29, 2024: What goes on over here
Oops didn’t mean to do the reply restriction
Reply to @transmissions11, 21:27 UTC · 3 likes
t11s (@transmissions11): average sf street sign
Bro
Tweet, 21:28 UTC · 8 likes
I think this is the only tweet in existence to use “only Verified accounts can reply”
Reply to @metakuna, 21:30 UTC · 2 likes
metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna): my body is a machine that turns its purpose into what it does
Nice
Reply to @AlexGodofsky, 21:36 UTC · 1 like
Alex Godofsky (@AlexGodofsky): Aside from everything else, "we cannot arrest our way out of homelessness" is literally false.
(quoting @ACLU: BREAKING: The Supreme Court ruled today that cities can punish unhoused people for sleeping in public, even if they have nowhere else to go. We cannot arrest our way out of homelessness.)
Seems like a bad decision
Quote tweet, 22:03 UTC · 8 likes
(This is in support of the original post. $1450 for 2000 square feet in NYC is like 1/10 todays price)
Quoting rosey🌹 (@thechosenberg): We need rents to go down or Boomers are going to the guillotine en masse
Reply, 22:47 UTC · 1 like
I mean it’s an empirical q what the correlation and R² are. The space of human brains is way more constrained than that of software
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 23:08 UTC · 2 likes
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): Something about slow-waddling birds gets me every time 🥺
@livgorton
Reply to @joodalooped, 23:17 UTC
judah (@joodalooped): software is so limited lol
How so? Isn’t turing completeness the upper bound for info processing
Tbc I may have no idea what I’m talking about, zero formal CS training
Reply, 23:21 UTC
Yeah but re your original point, a list of methods doesn’t tell you the compute specs which you can augment arbitrarily
Whereas human brains are limited in literal size (even with growth hormone and steroids)
Reply to @young_opsimath, 23:30 UTC · 11 likes
young_opsimath ⏸️ (@young_opsimath): Nonprofits can be good
image attached
(quoting @garrytan: Nonprofits are bad We need to bring back high integrity state capacity, highly paid, chosen for merit and held to high standards of accountability The state must end its practice of farming out state capacity to feckless nonprofits that grift and are not held to any standard)
Opening line: nonprofits are bad 🚫
Actual argument: it’s bad for the welfare state to rely on contracting out to nonprofits without proper incentives or accountability systems ✅
Reply to @garrytan, 23:30 UTC · 2 likes
Garry Tan (@garrytan): Nonprofits are bad
We need to bring back high integrity state capacity, highly paid, chosen for merit and held to high standards of accountability
The state must end its practice of farming out state capacity to feckless nonprofits that grift and are not held to any standard
Reply to @shae_mcl, 23:50 UTC · 3 likes
Shae McLaughlin (@shae_mcl): This is actually *incredibly* dangerous advertising. I’m shocked that this doesn’t break laws. Referring to DNA sequencing and polygenic risk analysis as cancer screening??? Claiming that DNA is the foundation of health??? That it’s better than going to a doctor???
Foundation of health definitely checks out
Reply, 23:54 UTC · 1 like
I agree for “be” as in actively participate, disagree for “have an account”
Public resume + connections is a super legible statement of credibility, much harder to lie in private on a job application
Quote tweet, 23:56 UTC · 5 likes
LinkedIn post feed or whatever it’s called can be dumb/cringe af
You should still have a page
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @JesseTayRiver I agree for “be” as in actively participate, disagree for “have an account”
Public resume + connections is a super legible statement of credibility, much harder to lie in private on a job application
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Reply, 00:24 UTC · 5 likes
Daniel Filan 🔎 (@freed_dfilan): @AaronBergman18 a lotta polynesians sailing ridiculously long distances, i assume
I would simply not have done that
Tweet, 00:32 UTC · 8 likes
So do ppl think sub-obesity weight gain and obesity are the same phenomenon?
Not necessarily talking about specific semi-arbitrary BMI thresholds (although those aren’t a terrible place to start)
Reply to @NoahTopper, 01:01 UTC · 2 likes
Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper): And here I was gonna @ you
@AaronBergman18 @NoahTopper
Tweet, 12:50 UTC · 11 likes
Aside from the actual question at hand, the sociology/social psych and political science of this is fascinating
Coordination without conspiracy (no I don’t think all this was hashed out in a giant WhatsApp group)
Tweet, 14:45 UTC · 4 likes
More important city, at the current margin (so not total importance integrated over time)?
Tweet, 21:00 UTC · 27 likes
In honor of 2.4k followers, I am going to drink at least 2.4k water molecules today
Tweet, 22:38 UTC · 16 likes
The function of this chair is to exist on top of a shipping container
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