Aaron Bergman's tweets, September 2023
Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in September 2023 and has not deleted: 610 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's.
This page is one month of the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets, which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: August 2023. Next month: October 2023.
Friday, September 1, 2023
Tweet, 12:35 UTC · 5 likes
Lfg it’s cool outside ❄️☃️🧤🧣🧊🌨️
Reply to @AISafetyMemes, 12:48 UTC · 12 likes
AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ (@AISafetyMemes): for every $1 humanity spends on AI safety, we spend $424 on butt plugs
That ratio should NOT be higher than 400:1
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 13:07 UTC · 3 likes
Aaron Bergman, August 28, 2023: 35. (This is indeed relevant to EA imo bc ~networking) This really comes down to personal preference so not making a normative claim but: I think people…
36. EA is ideologically weird because it quite naturally accommodates people who hold any logically coherent permutation of the following features of how good or bad the world is (not exhaustive ofc):
- past level
- past rate of change
- current level
- current rate of change
- future expected level
- sensitivity of future expected level to current actions
- future variance
- future rate of change
Add some qualitative flavoring and you get vibes like:
- OWID/progress cluster: world used to be bad, but has been getting better and will continue to (unless we fuck it up)
- suffering focused/s-risk cluster: world used to be bad, still largely is, and might get way worse (which we should prevent)
- [insert your beliefs here, probably]
Reply to @AISafetyMemes, 13:08 UTC · 7 likes
AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ (@AISafetyMemes): @AaronBergman18 I'd go further and say even 300:1 is too much
Don’t be an extremist
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 13:20 UTC · 4 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): I get that American tort law can suck sometimes, but I genuinely do not understand the point of being a nut-free bakery if you aren't actually willing to stand behind the claim that your products don't contain nuts
(Obligatory: speaking from a place of not allergic to nuts privilege)
Eh I do worry that if the threshold here was literally zero molecules of peanut protein or you can be sued into bankruptcy, the general equilibrium becomes that “nut-free” bakeries need to start using biolab level containment protocols which are expensive and hard so eventually none of them exist
Thread, continued, 13:20 UTC · 1 like
Wait I lied I don’t actually worry about this but I do think it would happen lol
Reply, 13:23 UTC · 17 likes
Don’t make me tap the sign
Tweet, 14:29 UTC · 21 likes
A public good someone better at scraping than me could make is a big spreadsheet of every unit for rent in the US with as much basic info as is feasible (rent, beds, location etc)
All the rental sites seem to be trying very hard to make this impossible
Reply to @adam__isom, 16:33 UTC · 2 likes
adam ✧ ❥ ~ (@adam__isom): Counterpoint, you can do this for other virtues too, to varying extents
Ultimately it doesn’t matter that much whether you were born with something or not, because what matters is it’s effect on the world
eg still good to punish impulsive criminals, still good to praise smarts
Someone *always* makes this point haha but I don’t agree - they key difference is that you really can’t change your intelligence very much (I guess you can via eg very heavy weed use over many years but this seems very rare), so it’s not *responsive* to praise/blame…
Thread, continued, 16:35 UTC · 1 like
It’s also not inherently good (as opposed to eg generosity), but some things people consider virtues like hard workingness aren’t either so I don’t think this is the main point
Reply to @adam__isom, 16:41 UTC · 2 likes
adam ✧ ❥ ~ (@adam__isom): @AaronBergman18 @skooookum This made me realize, thinking about virtues and praise is weird. When does direct praise of an abstract quality even happen?
Anyway, if I could make everyone a bit smarter I would. I don’t know how to square that with it not being ‘inherently good’.
I’m being loose with language here, like I don’t think virtues are anything fundamental - just a heuristic or social technology
Same, and I’d give everyone $100 of purchasing power if I could but I don’t think that this demonstrates that being wealthy *per se* irl is morally good
Reply, 18:32 UTC · 3 likes
Yes I agree
Reply, 20:08 UTC · 3 likes
Irresponsible title IMO
The implied meme is “owning pets per se is wrong” whereas really it’s “normal well intentioned people often subject their pets to harm; here’s how not to do that”
Editors choose the titles tho so not on the author most likely
Tweet, 20:16 UTC · 3 likes
Wait so if I re-download excel it’ll work with python right?
Saturday, September 2, 2023
Reply, 19:18 UTC · 3 likes
Wait give ur reincarnation take
Tweet, 20:07 UTC · 17 likes
Apartment shopping and generally filtering for <400 or <350 sq ft because, at a given price level, these almost always have better location/features and I’m super willing to trade size for other things I care about…
Tweet, 20:07 UTC · 7 likes
Other markets (and maybe people?) should lean into this kind of thing and let users search and sort for things that are generally bad but that any one user might care about less than avg or not at all
Tweet, 20:07 UTC · 5 likes
Eg girls adding a *max* height on dating apps if they don’t care much about that (disclosure: I have a conflict of interest here lol) and maybe guys setting a min
Tweet, 20:07 UTC · 6 likes
More generally it would be cool if you could (and it made sense to) add stuff about yourself (or some product or service in the general case) that are generally dispreferred but might make you someone’s comparative advantage
Reply to @T_R_E_X_12, 22:28 UTC · 3 likes
TREX (@T_R_E_X_12): @AaronBergman18 <400 sq ft is not living conditions.
College dorm I shared with another guy was 198
Sunday, September 3, 2023
Reply, 04:28 UTC · 2 likes
Disgusting 😏
Reply to @inerati, 04:37 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @inerati is no longer available.)
People move back and forth between “incel” as its original etymological meaning ie virgin who wants to have sex and “incel” as member of a particular online community
Guessing lots of disagreement in the comments comes from assuming you’re talking about the former (maybe u are?)
Reply, 05:38 UTC · 2 likes
🙏🏼
Reply, 05:55 UTC · 2 likes
This is a joke right
Quote tweet, 18:11 UTC · 3 likes
Seems familiar
Quoting Joakim 🌹🇳🇴🇪🇺 (@joakial_): sometimes norwegian politics is a bit funny
Reply, 18:35 UTC · 1 like
Great minds https://x.com/absurdlymax/status/1674561377170538499?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Reply, 19:17 UTC · 6 likes
Uh no
Reply, 21:54 UTC · 14 likes
Same
Reply, 22:18 UTC · 2 likes
About
Monday, September 4, 2023
Tweet, 18:29 UTC · 40 likes
😱😱😱😱😱😱😱
Reply, 19:24 UTC · 6 likes
I legit don’t understand some neoliberal brand reactive dislike of unions per se. Like it’s a bunch of people voluntarily deciding to form an organization to negotiate together
Reply, 19:36 UTC · 2 likes
Indeed, it really is amazing
Quote tweet, 19:49 UTC · 7 likes
Re: YIMBY unit size wars
DC minimum unit size is 375 sq feet, which I sense is pretty typical. Until recently I implicitly assumed 300ish was in fact rather tight, even for one person
Now it’s directly relevant to me, so I found out the actual size of places I’ve lived…
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Apartment shopping and generally filtering for <400 or <350 sq ft because, at a given price level, these almost always have better location/features and I’m super willing to trade size for other things I care about…
Tweet, 19:49 UTC · 3 likes
- college dorm that I shared with another guy: 198 sq ft
- My single from another year I'm guessing was 2/3 the size (and I did all cooking there with a microwave, hot pot, and mini fridge): 135ish sq ft
Tweet, 19:49 UTC · 3 likes
- current room (buried lead: at home w the parents, inshallah not much longer) where I spend >90% of my time at home: *108* sq ft, and this includes a bunch of space for my sisters old stuff
Tweet, 19:49 UTC · 4 likes
Yes, none of these^ had/include bathrooms or kitchenettes but even accounting for that, appts that are literally too small to legally build in a bunch of places just…aren’t that small at all?
Tweet, 19:49 UTC · 6 likes
Admittedly I still basically buy the libertarian brand arguments against minimum unit sizes in principle, but I’m at least a bit sympathetic to minimums of <150ish sq ft
Anything above 300 is just absurd
Tweet, 19:49 UTC · 6 likes
And I just wanna drive the college dorm point home: the people living in 200 sq foot shared Georgetown dorms are a largely privileged bunch
If it was really so bad, they and their parents have enough political/social/economic capital to enforce a change
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 20:16 UTC · 1 like
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): It’s not much longer than their interviews 😂
The people demand 5 hour interviews‼️
@robertwiblin @KeiranJHarris @80000Hours we will not go into high impact careers until this demand is met ⚠️
Reply, 20:17 UTC · 2 likes
Involuntary insect welfare work, good job
Quote tweet, 20:19 UTC · 3 likes
It would be so over for y’all smh
Quoting universe sweetheart 💓🌈💭 (@univrsw3th4rt): is there any amount of walking (and walking only) that would make me more physically toned?
Reply, 20:23 UTC · 2 likes
Facts
Tweet, 22:53 UTC · 7 likes
I’d like to coin “the Natália problem” as the following as-of-yet-unanswered conundrum in applied epistemology:
Suppose you, a good Bayesian, hold belief B with credence P, when a smarter and wiser Bayesian agent N provides novel evidence that P should be higher or lower
Tweet, 22:53 UTC · 3 likes
However, you know of the existence of other smarter and wiser people who think you should update in the opposite direction that N does
You know that you should update towards N’s view bc you didn’t previously know that N disagreed with you, but you’re not sure how much
Tweet, 22:53 UTC · 5 likes
So the question is:
what situation-specific factors determine the degree to which you should come very close to adopting N’s view, only updating a tiny amount, or something in between?
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 22:59 UTC · 6 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 1, 2023: 36. EA is ideologically weird because it quite naturally accommodates people who hold any logically coherent permutation of the following features of how good…
37. Neoliberalism and YIMBYism are plausibly bad bc they offer similar personal benefits to EA (including the accurate sense of being a pro social and altruistic person) but deal with issues OOMs less important, possibly sucking people away from the latter
(tbc I don’t think this is in fact the case but p>30%)
Tuesday, September 5, 2023
Quote tweet, 00:01 UTC · 14 likes
38. I’ve noticed a serious uptick in the number of EAs both visiting and moving to DC, and I strongly suspect it’s due to a relative shift in the AI safety discourse from technical only to more governance focused
If this is true, +100 “taking ideas seriously” points. It’s shockingly cool to see a decentralized community act like a rational agent in this way
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): People be moving to DC fr
Reply, 00:11 UTC · 7 likes
MacAskill is not culpable here. His biggest mistake was guessing someone’s character wrong (along with a lot of other ppl like me) https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1673619647495544833?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Quote tweet, 02:36 UTC · 2 likes
39. I think this is right and suspect it’s the main reason for attrition, regardless of what people actually say their reasons are for stopping veganism
I’m not sure if the fact that I personally experienced this is more good skin-in-the-game information or more bad anecdote-driven bias
Quoting Daniel Filan 🔎 (@freed_dfilan): @natalia__coelho @AaronBergman18 Maybe some diets you have people dropping off because of monotony or something, but anecdotally I think there's decent attestation to people feeling bad on vegan diets.
Reply, 02:49 UTC · 2 likes
Yeah fs but like even being 1% the way there is basically nonexistent in society
Reply, 03:07 UTC · 2 likes
Wait hear me out https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1683593790253137921?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Tweet, 03:22 UTC · 7 likes
Ok here's my mediocre attempt but its only for DC, almost certainly incomplete https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xf9Sxn3Dm6SrAO6RDLTb5tb2ft_0tO543AGLbAfiwjQ/edit?usp=sharing
Reply to @SteveStuWill, 06:45 UTC · 48 likes
Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill): “An analysis of results of 211 studies on sex drive found that men, on average, have a substantially stronger sex drive than women.” https://www.psypost.org/2023/02/huge-study-finds-men-have-a-stronger-sex-drive-than-women-68289
Big if true
Reply, 12:36 UTC · 8 likes
Always import numpy as torch
Quote tweet, 13:41 UTC · 2 likes
Ngl I kinda forgot about the Tulsa thing but in case there’s a silent coalition here, DM me and/or comment here if ur actually kinda interested
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): ⬅️ EAs when it comes to coordination around AI, involving thousands of people and billions of dollars incentivizing defection
➡️ EAs when someone suggests moving to a cool city with literally half the cost of living of SF (!) freeing up tens of thousands of dollars/person-year
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 13:52 UTC · 1 like
Aaron Bergman, September 5, 2023: 39. I think this is right and suspect it’s the main reason for attrition, regardless of what people actually say their reasons are for stopping veganism I’m…
40. EAGs should accept more people
I (weakly) don’t thing they should be fully open, but there’s no way the marginal person would be bad to admit all things considered
Reply, 17:24 UTC · 2 likes
Jfc
Tweet, 18:00 UTC · 3 likes
This is why the iOS feature that lets you silent notifications, informs the other person of this, but then lets them text you anyway (if you allow this) is excellent
Reply, 18:02 UTC · 2 likes
I feel like this isn’t true lol (since you incur risk of reputational cost (if nothing else) however small)
Reply, 19:03 UTC · 2 likes
Will it be recorded?
Reply, 19:46 UTC · 2 likes
🎉🥳🧠💻👁️🦇
Tweet, 21:23 UTC · 22 likes
Go to your following list, scroll all the way down and screenshot…
Kinda basic but think I chose pretty well in 2019
Tweet, 22:50 UTC · 4 likes
They need to make a medium sized pig.
Wednesday, September 6, 2023
Reply to @cremieuxrecueil, 01:18 UTC · 25 likes
Crémieux (@cremieuxrecueil): When I first saw this graph, the main thing that stood out to me was that Japan has the world's least spicy food.
Even Brits eat spicier food.
Are they not counting wasabi as spice? It’s qualitatively and chemically different but still spicy imo
Quote tweet, 11:04 UTC · 22 likes
That’s quite a CV
Quoting Peter Singer (@PeterSinger): Today I’ll begin teaching my last ever semester at Princeton University. This photo was taken of me at my first year of teaching in 1999.
Reply, 11:06 UTC · 3 likes
Yes its one of the products with highest consumer surplus for me easily
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 11:13 UTC · 8 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): @samswoora "build housing"
Ofc I agree, and would add that the homeless population people see and think about as “ruining cities” are a small minority of the actual homeless population, who are largely sleeping in cars/shelters/on a precarious stream of couches etc
This doesn’t “solve” the issues associated with the former group, but that’s an issue other than homelessness per se
Quote tweet, 11:46 UTC · 2 likes
Ooh this is so interesting
Quoting Owain Evans (@OwainEvans_UK): Our experiment:
1. Finetune an LLM on descriptions of fictional chatbots but with no example transcripts (i.e. only declarative facts).
2. At test time, see if the LLM can behave like the chatbots zero-shot. Can the LLM go from declarative → procedural info?
Reply, 12:06 UTC · 3 likes
I’ll allow the one normie follow in light of the other three
Reply, 12:15 UTC · 2 likes
Why is it so slow to do nothing?
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 12:51 UTC · 6 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): Yeah I think you're wrong here, homelessness is largely correlated with temperature and house prices. People are homeless because they don't have placed to live.
Much cheaper housing would help this.
Might be misunderstanding me - I agree with all that. I was just noting that the original tweet seemed to be conflating the actual homeless population with the visible homeless population that people seem to be especially bothered by
Quote tweet, 13:30 UTC · 5 likes
I’m hugely on team “be as intellectually honest as you can and be willing to steelman view you disagree with but don’t keep your views a secret”
Not just w/ kids (yours or in general) either…
Quoting Dissproportionately (@dissproportion): The children yearn for indoctrination. You think if I present alternate views they won’t figure out which I hold? If I don’t try to influence them they won’t be influenced? My kids are welcome to disagree, but they know where I stand. They surely know what everybody else thinks.
Tweet, 13:30 UTC · 3 likes
Old Forum comment
Reply to @GarrettPetersen, 13:31 UTC · 23 likes
Dr. Dad, PhD 🔄🔼◀️🔽▶️ (@GarrettPetersen): Why do you suppose homeschool kids outperform other kids on standardized tests?
Selection effects
Reply, 15:58 UTC · 37 likes
Eh pretty sure this is not one of the mechanisms
Quote tweet, 16:08 UTC · 6 likes
Where can I find more copilot prose like this?
Quoting Leon🕯️ (@miraculous_cake): @squirtle_says natty coder minds cannot comprehend this
Reply, 16:17 UTC · 50 likes
Probably a random toddler who has only a few propositional thoughts and all of them false
Thread, continued, 16:17 UTC · 41 likes
But in the spirit of the question, Kant
Reply, 16:21 UTC · 17 likes
Where u gonna get all that land?
Reply, 16:26 UTC · 23 likes
No
Reply, 16:42 UTC · 5 likes
Ur w🫎ome
Reply, 17:39 UTC · 6 likes
https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1670837256720990228?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 18:31 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): Every. Damn. Night. Not even sorry.
*man burns more calories than the entire industrial revolution* “just a lil treat 😋”
Reply, 18:35 UTC · 3 likes
Sure but that probably doesn’t run through the observation of you changing your physical environment slightly by literally moving objects - more likely the more abstract sense of doing something responsible/conducive to one’s goals etc
Reply, 18:45 UTC · 2 likes
Actually this is pretty interesting bc I recall heavy leg/core lifts being uniquely good at eliciting an endocrine response via growth hormone mainly which is well established to interact with the brain in a million ways
Reply, 18:46 UTC · 2 likes
Also I’ve heard some people report the opposite - being super wiped out mentally after leg day
So 🤷♂️
Reply, 18:55 UTC · 4 likes
No it was the moose one
Tweet, 18:57 UTC · 6 likes
If I was a billionaire my one weird extravagant thing would be having a bunch of pet pigs and a caretaker for them
Tweet, 22:03 UTC · 3 likes
Might get cancelled for this but Taylor Swift’s recent stuff is kinda…nihilistic?
Not like every song has to be deep ofc, and no I can’t really justify this in explicit terms with my desired level of brainpower
Tweet, 22:03 UTC · 1 like
To the friends that I lose over this: I hope u have a nice life
Reply, 22:24 UTC
Nothing necessarily. I’m basically an aesthetic subjectivist lol
Thursday, September 7, 2023
Reply to @nickcammarata, 01:10 UTC · 4 likes
Nick (@nickcammarata): why would it take 9hrs for the coffee to make me too acidic but only a few min for tums to fix it?
Seems more likely this is actually a decrease in stomach acid associated with the caffeine wearing off (caf increases stomach acid apparently)
This could impair digestion if you’ve eaten and are particularly responsive to caffeine in this way. Would also explain reflux (which is counterintuitively caused by insufficient rather than excess endogenous acid)
If this happens even for decaf coffee (or not if u take a similar amount of pure caffeine), it’s probably smth else
Reply, 02:13 UTC · 5 likes
Had to zoom in to make sure that wasn't a critter lol
Tweet, 02:19 UTC · 2 likes
Might have to post some Reddit screenshots to get my Elonbucks (3.4M over last 90 days but now I know professional influencer is a viable career plan if I play my cards right)
Tweet, 03:51 UTC · 1 like
I think I see why people are talking about GPUs and such
Also how is >100% possible?
Reply, 04:14 UTC · 2 likes
Everyone 🤝 everyone
No
Reply to @Aella_Girl, 05:08 UTC · 2 likes
Aella (@Aella_Girl): We're still dating! He's wonderful
So was the net result of that whole episode negative, positive (bc of the card and maybe extenuating circumstances), or ~neutral?
I feel like your answer will help be understand the female mind
Reply, 05:10 UTC · 11 likes
What is a “race condition” in this context?
Reply to @freed_dfilan, 05:11 UTC · 1 like
Daniel Filan 🔎 (@freed_dfilan): I don't think it will
My intuition is 50/50 here so I feel like bayesianism wise it’s non trivially better than nothing
Reply, 05:16 UTC · 2 likes
Poast?
Reply, 05:18 UTC · 4 likes
Thanks
Reply, 05:20 UTC · 2 likes
😢 (actually 🤝)
Reply to @BecomingCritter, 06:02 UTC · 1 like
critter (@BecomingCritter): what song should I listen to that has late night vibes?
Through the late night Travis Scott
Reply, 07:48 UTC · 3 likes
🫡
Quote tweet, 07:55 UTC · 11 likes
Is there a non-weird (non pejorative, good in fact) reason Stripe Press exists? I feel vaguely weird about shilling for a neobank but maybe they deserve it
Quoting Brian Potter (@_brianpotter): One cool thing about Stripe Press is that when I suggested some potential book ideas they immediately zeroed in on the extremely ambitious, galaxy-brained idea.
Reply, 09:04 UTC · 37 likes
This is just idle fake philosophizing but I feel like “forever” doesn’t weigh as heavily as it should
Not to say this means it would be bad to live literally forever, but I’m glad I don’t have to make that decision
Thread, continued, 09:05 UTC · 30 likes
Like at first pass it sounds in the same region as “you’d watch all ur friends die but 1000x” but no, you’d watch galaxy clusters form and that’s just a relative instant
Friday, September 8, 2023
Reply, 01:35 UTC · 1 like
Darn
Reply, 09:00 UTC · 3 likes
Me, I do
Reply, 09:57 UTC · 4 likes
Or bikini-themed lightbulb costume
Reply, 12:42 UTC · 2 likes
((Bikini themed lightbulb costume)-themed bikini)-themed lightbulb costume
Reply to @CosmicSkeptic, 17:29 UTC · 1 like
Alex O'Connor (@CosmicSkeptic): Can you disprove God’s existence in a tweet?
No
Quote tweet, 18:04 UTC · 10 likes
Can someone do an independent analysis here?
I don’t specifically distrust Shapira, it’s just a big claim
Quoting Liron Shapira (@liron): Last year, @elonmusk's judgment under pressure saved the world from nuclear war (>10% chance).
We as a species don't systematically prevent nuclear war. These ad-hoc moments of heroism from a Petrov, Arkhipov, Khruschev or Musk are all we've got.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/07/elon-musk-starlink-ukraine-russia-invasion/
Quote tweet, 20:24 UTC · 3 likes
After ~12 hours, FLUFFY1 has been trained 😤
- 600 layers (idk what these even mean but people seemed psyched about layers so)
- >1M parameters (I kinda know what these are)
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): I think I see why people are talking about GPUs and such
Also how is >100% possible?
Tweet, 20:36 UTC · 4 likes
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Saturday, September 9, 2023
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 00:23 UTC · 2 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 5, 2023: 🎉🥳🧠💻👁️🦇
Cool if I put it on the EA Global Talks podcast feed (if just for my own benefit lol and/or EA Forum)?
Public on YT now. Tbc I’m gonna default to doing this bc it’s public unless I hear otherwise https://youtu.be/-YC-ZhdcVck?si=LrObjWfsXnm8xGgw
Reply, 00:28 UTC · 5 likes
Probably not worth anyone updating but I got pretty badly hurt deadlifting a while ago. Probably my form wasn’t perfect but strongly suspect being a stick at the time was a greater risk factor (probably 90lbs lifting 225 I think) so maybe worth considering for anyone especially skinny/small/untrained
Quote tweet, 01:40 UTC · 3 likes
Now on Spotify with video! https://spotify.link/4zCxStGoWCb
Quoting Robert Long (@rgblong):
Tweet, 04:56 UTC · 22 likes
Question: why are garments so relatively (to what I’d intuitively guess given the prices of other consumer goods) expensive?
Like on Amazon the very cheapest men’s shorts are $10, and most basic ones are $20-$40
Thread, continued, 04:56 UTC · 7 likes
It can’t just be weight, because 15 pounds of paper costs about as much as 1 pound of short
Reply to @br___ian, 05:14 UTC · 2 likes
bri (@br___ian): My understanding is that sewing has not been successfully automated yet, although I couple be wrong
If so, I bet that's the limiting factor - one person can only sew a pair of pants so fast
Ah interesting
Reply to @br___ian, 05:14 UTC · 5 likes
bri (@br___ian): My understanding is that sewing has not been successfully automated yet, although I couple be wrong
If so, I bet that's the limiting factor - one person can only sew a pair of pants so fast
Wait that’s wild
Reply, 05:26 UTC · 2 likes
Why did ppl say no? Like if it sounds fun to u what’s the downside?
Reply, 07:43 UTC · 3 likes
It was dry, flavorless, and not sweet at all
Reply, 15:32 UTC · 4 likes
U don’t start listening to every 80k episode within 20 minutes of release? Not a real EA
Quote tweet, 15:38 UTC · 7 likes
41. CEA should in fact do this. It would be funny at a minimum and then all the EA-adjacents could mingle.
Also it would make the whole event EA-adjacent-adjacent
Quoting Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): To accommodate community sentiment CEA has placed a fairly large tent outside their next event they're calling EAG Adjacent
Reply, 15:39 UTC · 3 likes
Banger
Reply, 22:48 UTC · 3 likes
I mean it’s probably a light push, but I’d guess that yeah directionally it’s a push in the right direction
Some subset of students will be predisposed to care about ethics but not so much (/aren’t nerdy enough) that they’d research ethical theories on their own
And some subset of these would get a good competent professor
Quote tweet, 22:50 UTC · 6 likes
I think I’m gonna side with the “mandatory ethics class in college” people here
Not as a law obv, just a policy that I think would be on balance good for most colleges to adopt
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @daniel_271828 I mean it’s probably a light push, but I’d guess that yeah directionally it’s a push in the right direction
Some subset of students will be predisposed to care about ethics but not so much (/aren’t nerdy enough) that they’d research ethical theories on their own
And some subset of these would get a good competent professor
Thread, continued, 22:50 UTC · 4 likes
If someone reaalllly doesn’t wanna take it, fine choose another school
IMO “what should one do?” is a pretty fundamental question and if you’re gonna have anything like a basic reading or math requirement this should make the cut as well
Thread, continued, 22:53 UTC · 5 likes
Georgetown College required intro to Phil and intro to ethics. I mean I’m a philosophy nerd so I’m predisposed to support this, but I think it was basically a good reasonable policy that doesn’t need to fall into a battlefield of the STEM/humanities culture war
Reply to @contemplatonist, 23:56 UTC · 6 likes
Amber Dawn (@contemplatonist): this is a joke, but why are EAs like this? It feels like there's a lot of fear that ppl are going to be slammed if they ever make a mistake or accidentally sound more confident than they are - seems bad.
(quoting @SpacedOutMatt: My most toxic trait is adding increasing amounts of hedging every time I proofread one of my EA forum drafts)
I’ve started doing this unintentionally irl with non rationalist/EA ppl (like my parents lol)
It feels like just trying not to be literally wrong, which is hard!
Reply to @Duderichy, 23:57 UTC · 17 likes
the Rich (@Duderichy): real mathematicians know
Wait so how *do* these numbers get calculated for economic and legal purposes?
Reply, 23:59 UTC · 26 likes
Can someone explain?
Sunday, September 10, 2023
Reply, 00:04 UTC · 42 likes
Oops I guess
Reply, 00:06 UTC · 3 likes
Oops
Reply, 01:28 UTC · 19 likes
Jesus I have no idea what the actual thing I’m supposed to be avoiding is lol
Reply, 04:09 UTC · 3 likes
What
Reply, 04:10 UTC · 3 likes
I mean cigs will kill u, just take nicotine
Reply, 04:12 UTC · 15 likes
Oh this is sarcastic ie implying that these are generally bad. Didn’t catch that at first
Besides the cigs (and idk anything about epo), I pretty wholeheartedly endorse this unironically
Reply, 04:37 UTC · 4 likes
Tbf I’d be very suspicious of the truth of a conspicuously plain statement presented to me during a psych study
Reply, 05:01 UTC · 17 likes
Yeah this is basically exactly my parents situation. Got lucky choosing the right suburb in 96 tho, not every house is worth 7 figures now
Reply, 09:44 UTC · 2 likes
Depends on how empirically risky it is
Reply to @full_legal_name, 10:56 UTC · 58 likes
a beautiful woman 💕✨👄🦷 (@full_legal_name): doctor told me my cortisol levels look like i’m constantly trying to save a baby from a burning building
Phosphatidylserine lowers cortisol
Reply, 10:58 UTC · 2 likes
🫡
Reply to @BarughTyrone, 12:06 UTC · 3 likes
tyrone barugh🔸 (@BarughTyrone): Done a cost benefit analysis by any chance?
No but from recollection doesn’t seem super risky or expensive
Reply, 12:32 UTC · 2 likes
I think it’s a distinct org there but not certain
Reply to @pyroxiumn, 12:51 UTC · 1 like
pyroxiiumn (@pyroxiumn): I have this exact pair they’re soooo infamously uncomfortable. I wore them for my grad show and stood for 6 hours. even with some sitting A couple of my toes were numb for days afterwards
Just…don’t do that? Countersignal + comfy > signal
Reply to @RPLongSW, 13:30 UTC · 4 likes
RP Long 🆓️ (@RPLongSW): @AaronBergman18 Not sarcastic; rhetorical. I ask the questions in the first tweet and answer them in the rest of the thread. There is no sarcasm involved here at all.
Ok. You seem to imply that there’s some intrinsic value to solving problems via unassisted agency, “the hard way”
I disagree. The intuition most people have in this direction is just a reification of the heuristic that such “easy solutions” often have hidden/downstream/less salient downsides
But sometimes they don’t, or really they do but just aren’t large enough to justify the intuitive aversion
Insofar as you want to just assert that no, there is some genuine intrinsic value to unassisted agency, I’d just say that’s wrong and point towards the entire corpus of analytic philosophy as justification
Reply, 13:42 UTC · 10 likes
I feel a weird amount of connection (“kinship”? idk neither word is right exactly) with Swartz. Similar interests, moral and intellectual leanings, health issues (mental and otherwise), same name, afaict very similar personality and general secular upper middle class Jewish American upbringing. I could *totally* see myself doing the scraping thing that landed him in legal trouble and thinking “fuck it it’ll be fine”
I mean he was probably smarter and more successful than I’ll ever be but still
Tweet, 14:27 UTC · 2 likes
Am I the only one who just found this
Reply, 14:27 UTC · 6 likes
sure, Thing
Tweet, 15:49 UTC · 3 likes
"This means that if there's going to be a social norm against open sourcing powerful AI models, it's going to come from a combination of high status community members, or a majority or strong minority of the broader tech world saying, "No, this is an anti-social thing to do."
You might impress me with this AI thing that you made, but I think it's bad that you did that. Even though you caught my attention, I'm not going to hire you because I think you did a bad thing. That's how a norm against open sourcing powerful AI models starts to make personal sense for individuals.
To be clear, this doesn't depend on a majority of people saying this. It could be that 80% of people say, "Oh, cool, now I can fine tune 13 on whatever I want, thanks." But if Sam Altman and hiring managers at Google and Facebook are saying, "No, we're not going to hire you if you do that because it's bad," it can outweigh other incentives, like random people on Twitter saying, "Oh, super cool. Now I can get it to write tweets for me."
[From an edited ramble of mine, full text below. Thx to http://audiopen.ai]
Reply, 15:50 UTC · 16 likes
Well I hope she has fun too
Reply, 16:31 UTC · 3 likes
Poast pdfs
Quote tweet, 17:30 UTC · 2 likes
It’s on the gcal
Quoting tater tot (@parakeetnebula): @visakanv Once I saw a total solar eclipse at a zoo and watching the collective sense of “wtf” among all the animals as totality approached was really interesting, especially the reactions of the birds and gorillas. I think we are going to find out that animals have been onboarded to something like consciousness for a long time
Reply to @Chris_arnade, 17:33 UTC · 3,486 likes
Chris Arnade 🐢🐱🚌 (@Chris_arnade): It’s 100 degrees in my room, but 68 outside, but I can’t change that because England has dumb rules
Wait it’s illegal to open windows in the UK??
Tweet, 18:04 UTC · 2 likes
“The plan? Spend our last $50k on the least convincing ad anyone has ever seen”
Reply, 18:09 UTC · 3 likes
100% chance this is already on LinkedIn
Reply, 19:20 UTC · 2 likes
I agree it’s interesting but I’d guess not super relevant (though still relevant to some degree tbc) to hedonic welfare at least in relative terms
Monday, September 11, 2023
Reply, 12:34 UTC · 6 likes
The man writes
Reply, 15:55 UTC · 7 likes
He’s not stochastic 😡 every action is thoughtful and deliberate 🦜
Reply, 15:57 UTC · 4 likes
So what’s life like as a bird? Actually kinda curious what you’ve come to think
Tweet, 16:00 UTC · 5 likes
I did a 12 hour twitter fast (plz clap) and now I forget some of the bangers I thought of during that time 😢
Tweet, 16:01 UTC · 2 likes
Actually it wound up being 14.5 hours (plz clap 21% more)
Tweet, 16:17 UTC · 13 likes
I haven’t seen Qualy in a while
Was there a…fission in the Qualycule??? 😳
Quote tweet, 17:12 UTC · 51 likes
Warning: probably terrible idea. Just barely serious enough to warrant a tweet
Idea: huge indoor/outdoor playground/warehouse situation where people can drop their kids. Unlimited healthy individual packaged food and water. Toys, pillows and blankets, etc
The catch: in addition to each kid wearing a pulse oximeter, the whole thing is an AI-powered panopticon that alerts adults if P(something bad happening) is high enough
Quoting Maxwell Tabarrok (@MTabarrok): This is a strange pattern.
Baumol cost disease explanations predict that child care is expensive because the labor has high opportunity cost from more productive sectors.
But then we should see high wages for childcare providers. What can explain high costs and low wages?
Tweet, 17:12 UTC · 11 likes
That’s it. I’ve solved expensive childcare
Reply to @absurdlymax, 17:22 UTC · 9 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 So daycare....?
Yeah except no direct child/adult interaction or supervision except when the panopticon goes brr
Tweet, 17:58 UTC · 3 likes
Wait I’m an idiot it would be a dissociative chemical reaction
Reply, 19:28 UTC · 7 likes
:( [ or :) I guess ]
Reply, 21:38 UTC · 1 like
It’s too small. 23 inch laptop when
Thread, continued, 21:39 UTC · 1 like
Also more lumens plz. I want my screen to shine with the fury of 1000 suns (ie 1000 lumens sustained)
Reply, 22:26 UTC · 2 likes
Obv depends on how big “somewhat” is but my best guess (for ur followers too, not just me lol) is that this…isn’t true (emphasis on “must be” - plausibly it is much harder in some circumstances like being born in a poor country)
Reply, 23:14 UTC · 3 likes
🫡 Damn good luck
Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Reply, 10:38 UTC · 2 likes
I am once again calling for 90+% of prescription medications to be regulated like ibuprofen
Reply, 10:58 UTC · 4 likes
Fucking insanity
Reply, 11:46 UTC · 2 likes
Who is asuka and what does it/he/she have to do with an outdoor recreation coop
Reply to @GjMcGowan, 11:57 UTC · 4 likes
George McGowan (@GjMcGowan): Often I don’t remember your name or @ but I remember profile pic and a vague notion of content.
E.g. chilean software twink, HVAC EA, Dog Man, architecture yimby, foodie yimby, horny anti-boomer activist, EA biochad, doomer anglo lifter, inexplicably handsome AI researcher...
@austinc3301
@JesseTayRiver
@daniel_271828
@Laura_k_Duffy
@????
@catehall (??)
@Tjdriii (??)
@trevposts or @EzraJNewman or @mealreplacer or @RomanHauksson
What’s my score
Reply to @daniel_271828, 12:04 UTC · 3 likes
zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828): Wait, am I Dog Man?
Yes
Quote tweet, 12:08 UTC · 15 likes
Comment to be given a 2-5 word summary of ur entire being according to me
Quoting George McGowan (@GjMcGowan): Often I don’t remember your name or @ but I remember profile pic and a vague notion of content.
E.g. chilean software twink, HVAC EA, Dog Man, architecture yimby, foodie yimby, horny anti-boomer activist, EA biochad, doomer anglo lifter, inexplicably handsome AI researcher...
Reply, 12:11 UTC · 5 likes
Chilean software twink + America disliker
Reply, 12:13 UTC · 2 likes
Aerospace flavored shrimp savior
Reply, 12:22 UTC · 6 likes
Orange-tinted number enthusiast
Reply, 12:23 UTC · 5 likes
Stealth wingman
Reply, 15:19 UTC · 2 likes
Catgirl? No, cat > girl
Reply, 15:31 UTC · 4 likes
metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna): @AaronBergman18 yo
The great purple circle of ea Twitter
Reply, 15:45 UTC · 1 like
Multitude maximizer
Tweet, 17:20 UTC · 20 likes
More stressful?
Tweet, 18:17 UTC · 9 likes
Interview done. Confirmed less stressful than date
Reply, 19:10 UTC · 3 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): @AaronBergman18 Summarise me!!
Kind yet perpetually horny older internet brother
Reply, 19:11 UTC · 3 likes
Guy who occasionally shows up in the GC to impart wisdom then disappears
Reply, 19:20 UTC · 2 likes
Sam Glover (@sam_atis): 👀
Blogman with pfp of a guy with a very vertically long face
Reply, 19:26 UTC · 3 likes
Instant meta-analysis generator bot
Reply, 21:19 UTC · 2 likes
Don’t tease the people like that! https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Xw98osdN4mEGbRDiR/aaron-bergman-s-shortform?commentId=s4yxZTEckuuCGpZYd
Reply, 22:47 UTC · 2 likes
Demographic data! Hope most ppl interpreted it that way lol
Reply, 23:58 UTC · 3 likes
Mysterious smart and maybe rich person https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1701673869399015673?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
Reply, 00:00 UTC · 5 likes
davidad 🎇 (@davidad): @AaronBergman18 👀
1000 step Rube Goldberg alignment plan guy who may or may not have a real name
Reply, 00:10 UTC
Nicholas Decker (@captgouda24): @AaronBergman18 I'm gonna be eigenvalued
Econ guy who I remember had at least one bad ethics take but I can’t remember which
Reply, 01:22 UTC · 2 likes
Truly evil. Only one f*n+ can remain
Yes, consider rebranding as Ian
Reply, 01:43 UTC · 3 likes
Jfc, sorry to hear this
Reply to @dissproportion, 02:42 UTC · 36 likes
Dissproportionately (@dissproportion): Most people agree that women have lower libido (on average), but few acknowledge that there is a large segment of the female population that never liked sex and isn’t interested in it, cultural baggage aside. Luckily, there is a large part of the male pop that is unfuckable.
If you’re gathering data (implicitly lol) mostly from white college educated women over 40, probably smth in the neighborhood of 1/3 are taking antidepressants, of which the strong majority are SSRIs
Seems like this alone could explain 10% essentially asexual
Thread, continued, 02:44 UTC · 19 likes
Combined with 50% sexual side effect prevalence and much greater willingness to tolerate this among women? Seems like the whole story to me
Reply to @TylerAlterman, 05:51 UTC · 5 likes
Tyler is finishing a book, slow to reply (@TylerAlterman): What sex are you?
If you could do it all over, would you have rather been born a male or a female?
IMO the main considerations here from a hedonic self-interested perspective:
male = higher libido which is harder to fulfill -> much more sexual frustration
Female = period+pregnancy+childbirth (for most) means what like 10-15% of adulthood spent incapacitated and/or much less happy
Not at all obvious to me which is a bigger deal, hedonically
Quote tweet, 05:54 UTC · 29 likes
Can we get an intellectually disagreeable internet nerd review of this? Not to debunk it unless it actually needs debunking, which maybe it doesn’t!
Quoting chris (@becomingbabyman): Ok. This is gonna sting
Hyperbaric oxygen is kinda a magic bullet for body issues
Inflammation appears to be directly tied to oxygen saturation. O2 pressure vessels can get the fuel(oxygen) to parts of the body that are hard to heal
And O2 is not exactly trading at all time highs. So almost no one knows that hyperbaric oxygen is an option.
The woman running the only affordable clinic in SD litterally founded it so her father could get the care he needed.
Let’s bring back non invasive, affordable, miracle wonder drug
Pressurized Oxygen
👏👏👏
Oh yah. For reference I’ve had 2 treatments so far and each is progressively the best I can remember feeling in my body in 35 years
Reply to @Levi7hart, 06:02 UTC · 1 like
Levi Hart (@Levi7hart): anyone got a good ai tool that can transcribe notes and organise the notes/meeting actions?
https://audiopen.ai/?aff=M5bmM
Disclaimer: referral link. But I legit like audiopen
Reply to @Levi7hart, 06:06 UTC · 1 like
Levi Hart (@Levi7hart): i maybe should have been clearer that I was definitely not going to purchase a service
Ah, in that case http://assemblyai.com/playground for multi-speaker transcription -> http://Claude.ai for summarization etc
Reply to @absurdlymax, 06:12 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): Do we have a good explanation for what causes deja vu?
Olivia Rodrigo
Tweet, 06:16 UTC · 3 likes
Yes I am once again calling for explicit feedback like plz I even have an anonymous form (http://admonymous.co/a)
Tweet, 06:20 UTC · 3 likes
Like god bless the “trim ur unibrow” guy (gender neutral) who slid into my Admonymous. Perfect advice - actionable, not obvious to me somehow, like a poem in fact
Tweet, 06:23 UTC · 3 likes
For some reason I have a stupid consumerist urge to buy the newest most expensive possible computer but tbh my iPhone 11 works fine and totally suffices
Reply to @sarah_micheleg, 06:37 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @sarah_micheleg is no longer available.)
Air filter + n95 mask if u can tolerate + contact landlord + get air quality monitor so u can sue if they don’t do shit + open window + point fan outside to circulate + seal off bathtub somehow
Worse ideas that aren’t exactly bad:
- go camping
- ginger extract and/or zofran for nausea
Reply, 16:10 UTC · 1 like
Thx
Reply, 16:10 UTC · 2 likes
Likewise
Reply, 16:12 UTC · 2 likes
Happy birthday Frances
Reply, 16:28 UTC · 1 like
Chilean software twink
Reply, 16:32 UTC · 2 likes
Nerdy rat twitter anon archetype
Quote tweet, 16:50 UTC · 13 likes
There should be a coven of intellectually disagreeable internet nerd elders who we can turn to to discern important matters
Pls reply with nominees (mine [preliminary] are below)
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Can we get an intellectually disagreeable internet nerd review of this? Not to debunk it unless it actually needs debunking, which maybe it doesn’t!
Thread, continued, 16:50 UTC · 9 likes
I nominate @TheZvi @ohabryka @natalia__coelho @peterwildeford @acesounderglass @ESYudkowsky @juliagalef
Reply, 16:59 UTC · 6 likes
Reply, 17:00 UTC · 3 likes
I would die
Reply, 17:02 UTC · 6 likes
Role model in chief
Quote tweet, 17:07 UTC · 4 likes
🤝
Quoting Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford): This is great! @RethinkPriors has been voted most cost-effective of all time
so ok I think we can stop voting now
Reply, 17:30 UTC · 5 likes
Literally everything in high enough concentrations kills u tho
Reply, 17:48 UTC · 2 likes
Ryan Briggs (@ryancbriggs): @AaronBergman18 yeah okay
Fellow R enthusiast with suboptimal cause prio takes
Reply, 17:49 UTC · 2 likes
Guy I will keep running into irl once every couple months until the heat death of the universe
Quote tweet, 19:23 UTC · 5 likes
New animal welfare intervention just dropped
Quoting Jimmy (@JimmySteier): Lol in addition to messing up all steel on earth, we've also made a majority of central European boars too radioactive to eat for like 100 years.
https://nautil.us/the-paradox-of-the-radioactive-boars-376225/
Reply, 20:36 UTC · 2 likes
Update
Thursday, September 14, 2023
Quote tweet, 14:11 UTC · 24 likes
Apparently this checks out and the cats really are a nonlethal deterrent
Thus I bestow the honorary “based” upon Ms. Samantha Miller
Quoting Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 (@JeremiahDJohns): What does she think the feral cats are doing to the rats
Reply, 14:22 UTC · 26 likes
U got arrested for that?? I feel like this is more of a warning level offense
Tweet, 15:25 UTC · 5 likes
Is there a fundamental physics reason birds wings flap and airplane wings do not? Or is it just that flapping airplane wings is technically very hard and unnecessary bc infinite calories?
Tweet, 15:36 UTC · 1 like
For the first time in my life I feel mildly nature-deprived, like suburban trees and grass and stuff isn’t sufficing
Reply, 15:42 UTC · 2 likes
Reply, 17:55 UTC · 5 likes
I thought it was like a soccer league type league
Reply to @tobinjstone, 20:40 UTC · 4 likes
Tobin Stone 🌐 (@tobinjstone): have teenagers ever considered just being normal and putting things like artwork or nice photos on their wall?
Flags are big and cheap. Takes much more time and effort (or expense) to cover the same total area via art or pictures
I had a Maryland flag on my wall despite having zero state pride. Didn’t buy it for that, it was just laying around in my house pre-college for some reason
Reply to @Laura_k_Duffy, 20:41 UTC · 1 like
Laura Muresianu 🌐🔸🇺🇸 (@Laura_k_Duffy): I have 2/3 of the flags on the left picture…
Guessing UN+US?
Reply to @samswoora, 20:44 UTC · 2 likes
Samswara (@samswoora): I'm sorry who thought that "popular prescriptions near you!" was a good feature lmfao
Preregistering my guesses
Statin (?)
Statin (?)
PPI
PPI
SSRI
Statin
Reply to @Laura_k_Duffy, 20:49 UTC · 1 like
Laura Muresianu 🌐🔸🇺🇸 (@Laura_k_Duffy): Yeah, though I really wish I had a NATO flag
I don’t have the UN one up bc I’m pretty uncertain about how I feel about them as an organization
Solvable issue https://www.united-states-flag.com/nato-nato-3ftx5ft-printed-polyester-flag.html
Tweet, 22:06 UTC · 47 likes
Idk who needs to hear this (ok actually I do but whatever) but for job app questions/work trials/test tasks, I’d SO much rather have formal, hard time limit (enforced via test proctoring software or a very clear/explicit honor code) than a suggested time limit (“we recommend you spend no more than one hour…”), character or word limit only, or no limitation at all
Tweet, 22:06 UTC · 15 likes
Because otherwise it’s a race to the top, and frankly it’s rational for people in my shoes to spend up to like 20x the recommended (or assumed) time on at least some applications, and actually staying within that non-formal “limit” is just not gonna happen
Tweet, 22:06 UTC · 15 likes
For a “we recommend you spend 1 hour on this” app, I’d guesstimate that my actual mean time spent is:
- 2 hours for smth I’m a decent fit for
- 5 hours for a good fit
- 12 hours for a job I’d be really excited about
Reply to @ShahmeerHashmat, 22:10 UTC · 7 likes
Shahmeer (@ShahmeerHashmat): Nah it’s peaceful protest. Deal with it 👍🏾
That’s a very low bar and not a standard anyone uses for whether a particular protest is wise (if you support it) or acceptable (if you dont)
Reply, 22:30 UTC · 4 likes
I was thinking about this! Yeah it can definitely make sense if willingness to work a lot (perhaps beyond social norms) is very important for job performance
But this comes at a cost of diluting other signals which I’d weakly guess are collectively the bigger deal
Tweet, 23:26 UTC · 5 likes
Yoshua Bengio: “my credence on computational functionalism is 99.99%”
https://spotify.link/luY8PG8a6Cb
Thread, continued, 23:26 UTC · 2 likes
For the those who don’t automatically recognize every polysyllabic phrase in analytic philosophy, my understanding of CF is:
if A and B are systems doing the same thing with ~information~ [I don’t have a great grasp of what information is, formally] they will have (generate? be?) the same conscious experience (ie qualia), regardless of what they’re made out of, when or where they are, their history, or anything else
Thread, continued, 23:26 UTC · 1 like
Too bad I don’t think we’ll ever know because I’d bet with Yoshua money at 1:999 odds!
@rgblong care to give your point estimate credence? (Sorry if I missed it in the recording)
Reply, 23:38 UTC · 2 likes
I feel like nothing is 99.99% likely in analytic phil conditional on it being contentious enough to warrant debate/defense. My P(libertarian legit mental causation free will) > .01%
Quote tweet, 23:41 UTC · 7 likes
Personally I think we should make it illegal for anyone to go to med school so median MD compensation hits 7 figures ASAP
Quoting AMA (@AmerMedicalAssn): One health system turned to non-physicians in a pinch, but found they needed to rethink their strategy based on the data.
Friday, September 15, 2023
Quote tweet, 00:16 UTC · 3 likes
Guess I’m a two emoji guy now
Quoting Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): Put the pause ⏸️ emoji in your twitter name to show you support for pausing AI development until it is safe!
Reply, 02:38 UTC
https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1696728329368293682
Reply, 04:31 UTC · 1 like
Cute = good, normal = bad (absent any other info/context lol)
Reply, 04:37 UTC · 4 likes
well are u gonna keep it a secret
Quote tweet, 04:43 UTC · 3 likes
(Obv this is a joke but…)
1 minute of research says that it would take about 2000g of sugar (presumably ingested basically all together) to kill the median 150lb person
So this might in fact be 10% of the lethal dose which idk yeah seems like not a good idea unless you’re totally glycogen depleted
Quoting gaut (@0xgaut): Dunkin Donuts has got *nothing* on BaskinRobbins
185g of sugar? Try 263 grams.
Enough to tranquilize a grown adult European
Reply, 04:45 UTC · 2 likes
Especially-EA member of the Eigensquad
Reply, 05:16 UTC · 5 likes
Guess I’m gender-fluid or smth bc I don’t spontaneously think about anything before my lifetime that often at all
Future on the other hand…
Reply to @absurdlymax, 05:22 UTC · 5 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 @AndyMasley Yes most people hate longtermism for being too feminine coded
I confess I’m only a longtermist to meet girls at slate star codex meetups and such
Reply, 11:10 UTC · 2 likes
There’s no fact of the matter as to whether it’s above or below - the emoji is just upside down!
Quote tweet, 11:49 UTC · 9 likes
Awfully convenient that whoever bred the XL Bully was like “let’s name it something that will legibly convey dangerous aggression”
Like a smart bad guy woulda called it the Great Brownnosed Doodlehound or smth
Quoting George McGowan (@GjMcGowan): Congratulations to Dog Man
Reply to @peterwildeford, 11:55 UTC · 4 likes
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford): what do the icons in your twitter names mean?
🔎 = (or ≈) scout mindset (origin story )
Reply, 11:57 UTC · 2 likes
And AI pause (which I have less of an inside view opinion on but) https://x.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1702468530321719748?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Tweet, 12:03 UTC · 2 likes
We are so back ❄️☃️
Reply, 12:07 UTC · 1 like
I mean this is why I really want actual time limits, not just selfishly but also bc I’d guess it also distills the signal from the noise better for the employer
Reply to @lxrjl, 12:13 UTC · 1 like
alex lawsen (@lxrjl): Also, if you're excited about a job because of the potential there is to do good, I don't think trying to maximise the chance that you get hired is a sensible goal, even if you wouldn't feel bad about struggling once there. Surely you should want the best candidate to get it?
For altruistic roles/orgs: I’m definitely not trying to maximize the chance I get hired
I *am* trying to do what I think everyone else is doing tho. For sure it’s possible I’m wrong about this and, even if I’m not, I’d be very happy not to cooperate with a different norm
Reply, 12:20 UTC · 8 likes
Wait that doesn’t seem right
Psychedelics reduce the strength of priors, making you less of whatever you are (as a very rough woo-adjacent approximation)
Seems like the jet pack would accentuate a lot of the traits of a 13yo boy for better and for worse
Reply, 12:26 UTC · 2 likes
Yeah, I don’t think the same holds for a traumatized person taking acid
Reply, 13:15 UTC · 2 likes
Reply to @lxrjl, 13:27 UTC · 2 likes
alex lawsen (@lxrjl): I guess I've seen a few people say this kind of thing (I'm just doing what everyone else does) for altruistic job apps and my reaction is basically just "really? That's your honest best guess about the equilibrium for a group of altruistically minded, co-operative applicants?"
Yes
(Note that I’m super willing to trust everyone if there’s an explicit direction not to take more time, even without actual enforcement)
Tweet, 15:04 UTC · 5 likes
Do we know what molecule(s) are responsible for me noticing that it smells like fall? Bc I want to buy some of that
Cc @algekalipso
Quote tweet, 15:58 UTC · 11 likes
I ❤️ capitalism
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Do we know what molecule(s) are responsible for me noticing that it smells like fall? Bc I want to buy some of that
Cc @algekalipso
Reply, 16:02 UTC · 4 likes
Thats not a log. Logs must have length > circumference (source: me)
That is a chunk
Reply, 16:04 UTC · 1 like
No lol but it seems like the kind of thing that it would get right
And a search for “geosmin” on amazon turns up a bunch of fall scent like things
Reply, 16:05 UTC · 2 likes
Damn I should have considered the implication of making up a wood fact in a convo with a professional wood guy (carpenter? Woodsmith?)
Reply, 16:13 UTC · 3 likes
Fuck I kinda wanna buy it
Quote tweet, 16:15 UTC · 8 likes
Limit 100 😢
Quoting Joe Biden (@JoeBiden): I’ll ask you nicely to buy this new, color-changing campaign mug.
But I know someone who won’t: http://joe.link/mug
Reply, 18:32 UTC · 1 like
At least one member of the species appears to have learned English, Twitter, and theory of mind. Fascinating creature
Reply, 18:50 UTC · 1 like
Ik this is like a joke but I really do think nonobvious gender differences in psychology and life experience is super interesting
There’s a weird quasiparadox where like modeling women and men as the same (mostly thinking about psychology) aside from obvious physiological (and maybe other?) differences gets you like 99.9999% the way there (relative to the space of possible minds) and works pretty almost always
But this makes it hard to avoid typical-minding the cases where a psych difference is at least plausible/hypothesized, which adopting a (hyperbolic/sarcastic) “women are a whole other species” stance can help correct
Reply, 19:43 UTC · 3 likes
I guess so. Max is now a belligerent
Reply, 20:47 UTC · 3 likes
If you’ve never regretted taking a walk you should be taking more walks
Reply, 20:49 UTC · 2 likes
🔫
Saturday, September 16, 2023
Reply, 09:42 UTC · 1 like
I am…intrigued
Reply, 10:23 UTC · 1 like
Lmao in fact every type of categorization is racism. Fruit vs vegetable? Plant racism
Tweet, 10:44 UTC · 9 likes
Yeah I have a morning routine (turning on 7 distinct lights in my room)
Tweet, 10:49 UTC · 8 likes
App idea: pair dog owners who want dog walking with guys who want a socially acceptable reason to go walking when it’s dark
Reply to @shakaz_, 15:58 UTC · 1 like
shakaz (@shakaz_): why is it hard to do the thing you say you wanna do
Either lack of knowledge or physical impossibility (no I won’t elaborate lol)
Tweet, 16:20 UTC · 1 like
Tentatively endorse but I’d add a wrinkle: moral value and an ordering of actions or states of the world by moral value is an “is” type of thing, not an ought
Reply, 16:21 UTC · 1 like
Lfg
Quote tweet, 19:17 UTC · 1 like
Turns out you can’t see this acct’s circle unless you’re following them!
I am calling on the following individuals to preside over important matters by following @nerd_elders (unless u don’t want to in which case plz don’t, it’s cool):
@StefanFSchubert
@QualyThe
@ESYudkowsky
@NathanpmYoung
@robinhanson
@nickcammarata
@robertwiblin
Quoting Intellectually disagreeable internet nerd elders (@nerd_elders): On it.
People (ie the council of elders) I follow on this account will be added to my circle, where they can vote on and discuss matters if they do choose
I will then (hopefully/maybe/sometimes) publish screenshots or summaries with the consent of any individuals identified
Reply, 19:17 UTC · 4 likes
Reply, 19:42 UTC · 1 like
What
Tweet, 19:42 UTC · 9 likes
Rationalists, be aware of this guy’s ex
Tweet, 21:17 UTC · 13 likes
Went for a walk, was slightly too ambitious and now it’s been 12 miles with 5 to go and my feet hurt so AMA until my phone dies
Tweet, 21:18 UTC · 5 likes
Not wearing socks wasn’t a very smart
Thread, continued, 21:21 UTC · 7 likes
On the bright side I got through ~half of this (turns out hearing the same voice and similar content starts getting annoying at 4ish hours for me)
Reply, 21:22 UTC · 3 likes
Actually I may at the next intersection with society (on a trail rn)
Reply, 23:26 UTC · 2 likes
The shower I’m about to take
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 23:28 UTC · 5 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 16, 2023: On the bright side I got through ~half of this (turns out hearing the same voice and similar content starts getting annoying at 4ish hours for me)
Update: alive (not all the skin cells on my feet are tho) and home. Quite an experience (3 Ubers cancelled + then phone died and I have the geographical intuition of maybe an earthworm)
Reply, 23:36 UTC · 2 likes
👀
Reply, 23:38 UTC · 2 likes
I mean one literal answer is offer to buy physical ones (on Twitter/Craigslist/whatever) for a crazy large amount of money
Sunday, September 17, 2023
Reply, 00:39 UTC · 1 like
Wait I wanna know what econ thing needs that much compute
Like even kinda complex models with a bajillion interaction effects and fixed effects and function transformations on multi-gb data files takes like 30s tops on a normal laptop
Reply, 00:42 UTC · 2 likes
Omg if there’s ever a paper or anything that would make sense to a like a normal-ish econ person u can tell him I wanna see
Reply, 00:43 UTC · 2 likes
Or poast csv or GitHub
Reply to @peter_wilde_alt, 01:15 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @peter_wilde_alt is no longer available.)
Pasting from an old thread:
Not just lack of sleep but this in combination with what seems it’s probably cause (according to me, lol) - lots and lots of adderall *while on Emsam/selegiline, a MAOI that especially targets the same thing amphetamine especially releases*
This is a combo sufficiently sketch that you’d have a very hard time finding a psychiatrist willing to prescribe even for eg combination treatment resistant depression+ severe ADHD
I strongly suspect he was basically hypomanic
a large portion of the time bc of this, maybe ~always
Reply, 01:16 UTC · 2 likes
🙏🏼
Quote tweet, 03:44 UTC · 9 likes
If anyone knows of a Marsha (p<1, maybe Martha?) and Jeff (I think?) presumably married, white, like biking, 40s or maybe 50s, who live somewhere nearish Bethesda MD, tell them I say thanks and they fucking rock
Not very dramatic or serious backstory below…
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Update: alive (not all the skin cells on my feet are tho) and home. Quite an experience (3 Ubers cancelled + then phone died and I have the geographical intuition of maybe an earthworm)
Quote tweet, 03:45 UTC · 1 like
> got to Nice Straight Line Trail at like mile 5 of random walk (ha),
> this is like 1mi via the shortest socially acceptable route from my house
> planning just to turn around in a bit
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Went for a walk, was slightly too ambitious and now it’s been 12 miles with 5 to go and my feet hurt so AMA until my phone dies
Tweet, 03:46 UTC · 1 like
> but it’s a nice day and I’ve got a pod and some water
> eventually hit mile 5 of Nice Straight Line trail (ie 11 total miles, 6 to home)
> not wearing socks bc I’m an idiot
> get some dirt in my shoes
> not-that-bad-blisters.heic
Tweet, 03:46 UTC · 1 like
> decide to get to the nearest road-trail junction and Uber home bc $14 to avoid an increasingly painful 2 hour backtrack
> another mile and I’m there
> 20% battery
> 1st Uber cancels after 10 mins (some were Lyft but to simplify)
> second Uber cancels
> 3rd uber cancels
Tweet, 03:46 UTC · 1 like
> realize this must be cursed parking lot thing somehow
> 11% battery, fuck
> guess I need to find another place to call one from
> happens to be along a connected trail, which is less straight-liney
> get there, 8% battery
> Uber cancels. Wtf?
> 4% battery
> Call another
Tweet, 03:46 UTC · 1 like
> 7 minutes away
> 5 minutes pass
> 7 minutes away
> 3% battery
> 8 minutes
> I message driver, no response
> 2% battery
> 8 minutes away
> 1% battery. Fuck
> I cancel Uber, whatever I can walk
Tweet, 03:46 UTC · 4 likes
> ask guy with a car if he happens to have a charger. He does not
> Fuck
> get another minute’s glance at google maps before phone dies
> My mental map IQ ≈ 0
> wind up in like a residential area alongside a trail that may or may not be the one I’m looking for
> figure I’ll wander around a while and if really desperate like knock on a random strangers door?? Sounds not fun
Thread, continued, 03:46 UTC · 5 likes
> fuck
> this time I say it out loud bc I’m kinda nervous now, in an unknown residential area with no obvious like grocery stores or gas stations or anything, phone dead, blisters doing their thing, out of water
> Marsha must have heard bc she comes riding on a bike by me and asks if everything is ok
> 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Tweet, 03:46 UTC · 4 likes
> she and husband stop
> I explain the situation in brief
> try to use her phone to get Uber
> 10 minutes later none to be found
> could they point me towards the Nice Straight Line Trail
> that’s where they’re going!
> they offer to bike slowly and I can jog alongside
> lfg.gif
Thread, continued, 03:46 UTC · 10 likes
> get to nice straight line trail
> for (i in 1:10^4) {print(“thanks!!!!!”}
> they bike off into the distance
> feet hurt but at least I’m not gonna spend the night on the streets of _________, Maryland
> walk walk walk walk walk
> home
> plz award social status and acclaim to these good samaritans
Reply, 06:35 UTC · 2 likes
I’m built different I’d survive that
Reply, 06:48 UTC · 4 likes
I’ve been this guy (not over text but similar besides). 99.99% chance it took him a lotta courage to send that. If you don’t like him, he probably wants to know that and then still be friends!
And I’m calling bullshit on all the replies like “it’s just a complement, doesn’t mean anything.” Bro probably had several focus group sessions in the gc before sending lmao
Quote tweet, 07:03 UTC · 3 likes
Hi I’m a chopstick that impaled a toddler’s neck
Quoting society (@a_real_society): introduce yourself with what almost killed you
hi, i'm grain entrapment
Reply to @panchromaticity, 14:40 UTC · 3 likes
Xenia 🔍💎 (@panchromaticity): @shaggysurvives I can't remember actually, I added because @TetraspaceWest and I are doing the "metaphorically dress up as each other on twitter bit"
Lol nice
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 15:24 UTC · 1 like
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): @AaronBergman18 @peter_wilde_alt Scott's suggests a slightly different causal chain https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-psychopharmacology-of-the-ftx
I don’t think this (the screenshot) is inconsistent with my theory - like I’m agnostic about how mechanistically “take multiple different stims” turns into hypomania
Also psychosis and mania are pretty different, and there’s no super clear line afaik between “have lots of energy/optimism” and “hypomania”. I don’t have any reason to think SBF was *hallucinating*
Reply to @Actualwebutante, 15:30 UTC · 3 likes
whoreaborealis (dubai, bali 10/18-11/14) (@Actualwebutante): Thinking about the time @nosilverv saw me reading a book in an alcove and said “I now understand why people eat sushi off of naked women”.
Still trying to figure out what was meant by this .
People are eating sushi off of naked women?
Reply, 15:38 UTC · 2 likes
STOP doing math
Reply, 15:42 UTC · 5 likes
Reply, 15:43 UTC · 5 likes
Extrovert cope
Tweet, 15:53 UTC · 28 likes
So deep learning models are a “black box” according to everyone
But this can’t be literally true, right, since inference is just performing a hard coded (at this point) algo? Is the black box analogy better understood as “see through box but inside is a quadrillion moving parts that look random but somehow pump out widgets” or am I missing something ?
Reply, 16:01 UTC · 1 like
Fuck that I hated Spanish for 7 years and now it only helps me occasionally make funny tweets https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1666873432523276314?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Reply to @EigenGender, 16:07 UTC · 4 likes
EigenGender 🔸 (@EigenGender): Yeah this is the thing that’s frustrating/captivating about mech interp: the model does all its computations in front of us. We can trace each of the billions of FLOPs by hand and yet in some fundamental sense we don’t understand
Well maybe “we” can but I can’t! Like if I have a directory from https://t.co/IK2s7MhAWO_model() or whatever it’s called, all the files are either tiny or totally random looking symbols (like random Unicode characters) if opened in a text editor
Quote tweet, 16:13 UTC · 4 likes
Ugh guess I should get my annual mRNA Injection
Quoting Intellectually disagreeable internet nerd elders (@nerd_elders): Should most of @peterwildeford’s twitter followers get a COVID booster in the next three months, conditional on not having gotten any in the last 6?
Quote tweet, 16:17 UTC · 9 likes
Adding a white board to my wall (thanks @thornyproblems) was practically good (harder to ignore than a todo list I have to open an app to see) but aesthetically excellent (nerdcore)
Highly recommended
Quoting Visakan Veerasamy (@visakanv): 💡 this is what is currently missing from my life
Reply, 16:56 UTC · 7 likes
Boy do I have a spreadsheet for you https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SpbrcfmBoC50PTxlizF5HzBIq4p-17m3JduYXZCH2Og/edit
Reply, 16:56 UTC · 2 likes
Cc @Laura_k_Duffy
Reply to @jeffrsebo, 16:58 UTC · 2 likes
Jeff Sebo (@jeffrsebo): in honor of my 6,500th follower, making a special one-time offer: if you reply to this thread with the name of a particular kind of being, i promise to tell you whether that kind of being is sentient or otherwise morally significant.
You (fishing to see whether you think it’s possible you are p-zombie)
Reply to @jeffrsebo, 17:26 UTC · 1 like
Jeff Sebo (@jeffrsebo): possibly! it depends on how you specify the referent. "jeff sebo" the animal is definitely sentient and morally significant at present. "jeff sebo" the protagonist of this animal's self-narrative is an abstract object and is only possibly sentient and morally significant.
Interesting! (I think you’re wrong about the first “definitely” but ik th
Reply, 17:30 UTC · 1 like
Lol accidentally hit send - meant to say “ik lots of ppl smarter than me agree with you”
Quote tweet, 17:55 UTC · 3 likes
People should make more podcast (or text that can be turned into audio) playlists/albums/series/mixtapes/compilations
Could be for a specific topic or like “intro to my worldview/ideology” or just personal favorites
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): On the bright side I got through ~half of this (turns out hearing the same voice and similar content starts getting annoying at 4ish hours for me)
Tweet, 18:57 UTC · 356 likes
Despite >30 years of marriage my parents haven’t made any progress on the “mom slower to go from 0% -> 99% packed/ready but dad slower to go from 99% -> 100% ready so both accuse the other of being the slow one” problem
Thread, continued, 18:58 UTC · 32 likes
What this looks like:
> Both wake up at 0%, have a plan to leave “around noon” or smth vague like that
> Dad declares at 11 am that he is packed and ready to go (he’s not), goes back to doing something else
> mom needs another hour
> dad agrees to leave at noon
Thread, continued, 18:58 UTC · 48 likes
> at noon +- 5 minutes, mom is standing outside with the car key
> dad rounded all last minute errands to zero minutes in his head
(regretfully I have this character flaw as well, albeit to a smaller extent. I wonder why that’s the case lol)
Tweet, 18:58 UTC · 32 likes
> turns out he needs to fill up a water bottle, and make sure the doors are locked, and make sure the lights are off, and grab a snack for the road, and several more idiosyncratic things depending on the situation
Thread, continued, 18:58 UTC · 25 likes
> mom has been waiting outside this whole time (happily if <5 mins bc it’s inevitable, mildly pissed at 5-10, starts honking the horn by minute 20, threatening to leave herself by 30, which becomes credible by minute 45)
Thread, continued, 18:58 UTC · 40 likes
> when the honks start, dad speeds up his errand process by 2x
> they’re both actually in the car at 12:23
> Mom: “what takes u so long?!”
> Dad: “I was ready to leave by 11:00 but you were still packing!”
Reply, 19:04 UTC · 16 likes
Are u trying to break apart my family
Reply, 19:04 UTC · 4 likes
(Yes in I agree, though sometimes she’s the actual reason they leave a couple hours later than planned so)
Reply to @absurdlymax, 19:07 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @peter_wilde_alt We must protect it
So you wanna bomb emoji datacenters if other countries don’t sign the Orb Treat of 2023?
Reply, 19:11 UTC · 2 likes
Monday, September 18, 2023
Reply, 00:02 UTC · 1 like
A turtle, not a tortoise. Common misconception
Reply, 00:17 UTC · 3 likes
No it should be otc
Reply, 04:13 UTC · 8 likes
Reply, 04:31 UTC · 3 likes
Hey ur making it sound principled - you just wouldn’t offer good enough odds!
Reply, 04:37 UTC · 2 likes
“Make everybody stub their toe rn” is also egalitarian
Reply, 07:55 UTC · 10 likes
Yo wtf, just terrible reporting
Quote tweet, 08:02 UTC · 4 likes
This seems to be close to the consensus take and I buy it but, like, why? Why do women care about height (allegedly) way more on apps?
I’d guess, if anything, the trend would be reversed - like on Hinge pictures are the same size for everyone and height is a disembodied number
Quoting Shag Nasty 🇺🇦🇦🇲🇵🇸 (@YaBoiShagNasty): I’m 5’8” and have fairly attractive features (if I may say so myself) and I have been able to get dates with pretty attractive women IRL. I was basically invisible on apps. I think there’s a shop window effect where women discard men over things that wouldn’t be dealbreakers IRL.
Thread, continued, 08:02 UTC · 2 likes
I’m pretty interested in the perspective of someone who recognizes herself doing this!
Quote tweet, 09:09 UTC · 42 likes
I think there’s something like a 30% chance I don’t get to have a 40th birthday
Quoting PauseAI ⏸ (@PauseAI): @jeremyphoward Interviewed guy here. Yes, it's sad. This is what internalising existential risk means and what it looks like. I'll share a little more of my emotional journey.
One of the largest problems with x-risk, is how difficult it is to accept. For me there was at least a 6-year gap between learning that x-risk is a thing that exists, and actually feeling that this could be something that kills my friends and family.
I didn't take x-risk that seriously at first. Seemed too far-off to worry about, and there was no evidence of AIs having any form of agency. It was mostly just an interesting thought experiment.
When GPT-4 launched, many goalposts had to suddenly be moved. The progress in AI outpaced every single prediction that I heard from experts.
And then AutoGPT launched, which proved that AIs don't need any form of internal agency to act as autonomous agents.
My two reasons not to worry melted like snow in the sun. That's when the full weight of x-risk dawned on me, and that's when I started PauseAI.
In hindsight, I feel foolish for not taking these risks seriously earlier. I was in denial. Some thoughts create too much cognitive dissonance. "AI may kill us all" is one of them. Such a thought has a lot of consequences in your mind, for your future, for your own actions. The more friction a thought has, the harder it is to fully internalise.
Maybe it's like dealing with a cancer diagnosis. There's a real risk of death and you don't know exactly when. Many people who are diagnosed also cope by denying their situation. With x-risk, it's not just you who dies - it's everyone you love. In that way it may be even harder to internalise.
So I don't blame people who are in denial of the risks from AI. Even if they make money by building the technology, and have obvious self-protecting incentives to downplay the risks.
But I do have found a new level of respect for Yoshua Bengio and Geoffrey Hinton. They learned about x-risk, but didn't stick their head in the sand. They updated their beliefs and their actions, and shifted from building AI to warning people about the existential risk that it poses. This means these two didn't just have to internalise that this tech could be their demise, but they also had to internalise that their whole life's work might have contributed to the end of mankind. That is an even tougher pill to swallow.
For me, the darkest emotional state has passed. I feel like I went through a process of grief. I'm feeling pretty good actually. But one of the hardest things about doing what I do now is knowing that other people may need to go through a similar process in order for them to get in action. As long as the risks are something abstract, something devoid of emotion, people will not act on them. Right now, the lack of action is the single largest risk that is threatening all of us. That's truly sad thing to this story.
Reply to @adam__isom, 09:45 UTC · 2 likes
adam ✧ ❥ ~ (@adam__isom): if you’ve never said something dumb (that you can’t unsend) in a gc, you’re not living
🙌
Reply, 16:51 UTC · 4 likes
In terms of health I think I have a better chance than average of reaching 40 (though like the median is pretty high ofc)
Reply to @lxrjl, 23:56 UTC · 3 likes
alex lawsen (@lxrjl): The real pro move is to undersell your height on apps so you weed out people who don't understand adverse selection.
In my drafts!!
Reply, 23:59 UTC · 2 likes
Bc things other than b vitamins are important lol
Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Reply, 00:56 UTC · 4 likes
Wtf are u the superintelligence??
Reply, 00:59 UTC · 4 likes
No, please continue to spread to Gospel of Walk!!
Reply, 01:08 UTC · 2 likes
Thx
Reply, 16:33 UTC · 2 likes
Yes. YES
Reply, 16:36 UTC · 3 likes
Green flag
Reply, 16:49 UTC · 2 likes
Noooooooooo (actually seems like a reasonable good decision so okkkkkkkkkkkkkk)
Reply, 16:52 UTC · 2 likes
Quote tweet, 16:53 UTC · 10 likes
The 80k podcast is too short
Quoting Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): What's an EA opinion that'll get you like this?
Tweet, 16:53 UTC · 4 likes
Cc @EAheadlines 😈
Quote tweet, 16:54 UTC · 7 likes
There is no affirmative argument that moral value (‘utility’) is well modeled by the real numbers and addition/subtraction
Quoting Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): What's an EA opinion that'll get you like this?
Quote tweet, 16:57 UTC · 21 likes
Quoting Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): What's an EA opinion that'll get you like this?
Quote tweet, 16:57 UTC · 2 likes
.
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): 1. There is a ~0% chance that any of the GiveWell top charities are a good use of money in light of other available options (I’ll throw out The Humane League and Long Term Future Fund - at least one is superior depending on assumptions. Probably both)
Reply, 16:58 UTC · 2 likes
NDAs are good, actually
Reply, 16:59 UTC · 2 likes
Facts
Reply, 17:00 UTC · 3 likes
You weren’t supposed to disclose what it stands for!!!!!
Quote tweet, 17:07 UTC · 47 likes
Asked a girl out with a heart shaped hot pretzel in 6th grade (it was February and they were being sold at lunch)
You already know the answer
Quoting Spencer Greenberg 🔍 (@SpencrGreenberg): A question for you: what's one of the biggest rejections you've experienced?
Tweet, 17:11 UTC · 37 likes
Actually a more serious answer is getting rejected by all the top colleges I applied to but that’s not as funny
Reply, 17:37 UTC · 4 likes
Many are saying https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/czjZgTBFxPtDnPTBv/most-ivy-smart-students-aren-t-at-ivy-tier-schools
Reply to @prerat, 17:41 UTC · 2 likes
prerat (@prerat): @AaronBergman18 we don't have 0% probabilities in the real world anyway tho, so does that matter?
No I don’t think so, pretty sure being willing to give up anything not to increase the probability of bad outcome implies the same thing
Reply to @flailing_, 21:55 UTC · 3 likes
Nate (@flailing_): @AaronBergman18 Nah this is a bad opinion sorry. One, buying a new TV is an available option. Two, if you don't value animal life highly and you have limited faith in some of the interventions being funded by ltff (some are definitely risky), then usual top charities are still the best option.
First: all good! - I’d much rather have ppl openly+explicitly disagree with this (or any other) take than nod along and then not actually update on it…
1) in absolute terms, the difference between TV and AMF or whatever is *smaller* than that between AMF and the two listed (under my model of the world ofc)
2) re animals, I think you need to have an implausibly high degree of confidence in their moral value being tiny to get the inequality sign to flip
like if you put 10% credence on the RP welfare ranges being a decent estimate of moral value, pretty sure THL comes out ahead
3) I don’t have a strong inside view take on LTFF marginal grants, but think the fund managers are basically smart and competent so pretty willing to defer
4) re: certainty let me find a tweet of mine from a while back…
Reply, 22:29 UTC · 2 likes
Whaaat you’ve been missing out
Wednesday, September 20, 2023
Reply, 01:50 UTC · 3 likes
Rule: increasing series of numbers
Reply, 07:13 UTC · 1 like
Maybe 😈
Reply to @finnhambly, 15:07 UTC · 2 likes
Finn Hambly (@finnhambly): @AaronBergman18 @adamrisom Yeah EA is an example (though in practice applies other heavy selection effects that aren't necessarily desirable), and it makes me think there must be others that are just as easy to be unaware of
Anecdote for EA as Schelling point: wound up getting back in touch with two (like 3 people stand out in my mind and these were two of them) of the smartest people I knew in hs through EA (one via Swapcard lol)
Tweet, 15:48 UTC · 53 likes
You’re saving for the future despite AI timelines
I’m borrowing from the future via bets that I lose and pay off only if I’m alive in 2040
We are not the same
Reply to @0K_ultra, 16:02 UTC · 5 likes
0kultra.🅱️sky.social 🦋 (@0K_ultra): I don't think illusionism posits nonexistence of consciousness or even strict epiphenomenality (tho it is close to epiphenomenalism, a real old philo chestnut)
To the best of my understanding it does, at least in the most commonly used sense of “consciousness”
Reply to @AlexGodofsky, 16:03 UTC · 4 likes
Alex Godofsky (@AlexGodofsky): TIL that this exists as something people actually believe. Until now I had not *seriously* considered the idea that some human beings might actually lack conscious experience.
Hey I think it’s wild too but P(illusionism)>1% IMO
Reply, 16:48 UTC · 3 likes
Send me $100, I’ll send you $125 in 2023 dollars in 2040
Reply, 16:49 UTC · 1 like
(I don’t have 1M - potentially willing to do single digit $thousands tho)
Reply, 16:56 UTC · 2 likes
Anyone putting <.1% has not seriously engaged with like anything related to this
Not a gotcha - it’s a Twitter poll so can’t count on only ~expert~ responses, but it’s worth keeping in mind
To me, .1% sounds like saying Trump had a .1% chance before election night in 2016
Reply to @ctjlewis, 19:13 UTC
Lewis 🇺🇸 (@ctjlewis): people dramatically overestimate their own IQ in the absence of testing. median tpotter is 120 who thinks they’re 140
In case people are curious, SAT/ACT is a decent proxy
Reply to @lporiginalg, 19:37 UTC · 7 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @lporiginalg is no longer available.)
Absolute bro
Thursday, September 21, 2023
Reply to @HenriLemoine13, 02:58 UTC · 3 likes
Henri Lemoine (@HenriLemoine13): What am I missing that makes it so unlikely? The way it’s being described here, it seems obviously correct to me. Does illusionism make some unlikely assertions beyond the ones GPT-4 described?
I don’t like the word “illusion” bc it’s super ambiguous. Like optical illusions are real in the sense that there is a legit illusion, but x being called “an illusion” strongly implies that it is not a genuine member of some salient category…
Anyway, do you think u have subjective experience? Illusionism claims that you do not
Quote tweet, 03:10 UTC · 36 likes
80k pod
Quoting greg (@greg16676935420): What was Taylor Swift listening to at the grocery store?
Reply, 03:24 UTC · 1 like
Doesn’t seem empty to me - like exactly one of those frames can be correct!
And same with the chair. Big difference between a chair and a picture of a chair
Reply to @dissproportion, 04:14 UTC · 3 likes
Dissproportionately (@dissproportion): tfw you realize you can make any noun into a name
“Time to go to school, Platypus”
“Fuck you dad”
Reply to @inerati, 04:19 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @inerati is no longer available.)
The methyl group doesn’t do a whole lot
Reply, 04:26 UTC
Ik of one straight guy (can’t say who atm) who it definitely worked for
Seems more likely to be good than actually harmful bc like if you weird someone out the worst that happens (99.999% of the time) is no date, which is the default anyway
Reply to @HenriLemoine13, 04:33 UTC · 1 like
Henri Lemoine (@HenriLemoine13): story, and call that “an illusion of consciousness” or call that a “subjective experience”, but if at the end of the day you're not expecting any different behavior then that's just a different way of abstracting the exact same physical phenomenon.
Idk if this is important to your point but I disagree that the thing being discussed which may or may not be genuine/illusory/legit is “physical” even though there’s definitely some sort of relationship there (ie between qualia and the brain) (1/ )
Thread, continued, 04:44 UTC · 1 like
Also I feel like this gets so intellectual and abstract when the actual disagreement is pretty fundamental and intuitive. I claim there’s something it’s like to be me, and that I really truly genuinely legitimately in a non-illusory sense have subjective experiences, unlike (presumably) a rock
Illusionists claim that I do not, which I think is possible and coherent but not true
Tweet, 05:03 UTC · 103 likes
You know it's about to be a banger when
Quote tweet, 06:36 UTC · 5 likes
It continues to be very funny that the head of the main consumer facing product of a trillion dollar company powered by the most important technology in human history is a dude with no pfp on Twitter
Quoting Mikhail Parakhin (@MParakhin): @vitor_dlucca I think the question you should be asking is: are you lucky %er already or not yet :-)
Reply, 08:46 UTC · 5 likes
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/linch
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 12:34 UTC · 1 like
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): I feel like it’s gotta be doin something
Huh thx
Reply, 12:40 UTC · 2 likes
👏
Reply, 14:31 UTC · 2 likes
🙋♂️me I do
Reply, 16:53 UTC · 4 likes
Ooh which one is this?
Reply, 16:58 UTC · 1 like
Tf was apple using leather for?
Reply to @frances__lorenz, 17:01 UTC · 49 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)
Worst part is spelling it with a u
Reply to @frances__lorenz, 17:03 UTC · 90 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)
Do you have an air quality monitor? If not that could help both prove and ascertain how bad the problem is (not that any mouûüùúūÛÛÜÙÚŪld is acceptable)
Quote tweet, 17:19 UTC · 13 likes
Parents are going to Europe and plan on leaving 18 minutes ago
Dad is in his home office, still working on something
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Despite >30 years of marriage my parents haven’t made any progress on the “mom slower to go from 0% -> 99% packed/ready but dad slower to go from 99% -> 100% ready so both accuse the other of being the slow one” problem
Reply, 17:19 UTC · 1 like
🕵️♂️
Reply, 18:18 UTC · 5 likes
Last ones on the boat fr
Reply, 19:04 UTC · 2 likes
Wait so this wasn’t gpt4
At this point when I see any text thing alongside the word “impressive” I assume it is lol
Quote tweet, 19:16 UTC · 4 likes
I sometimes wonder how rule of law in the US remains as strong as it does. I’m not being sarcastic here - like I think it’s very good (even tho this case is kinda absurd) but just don’t understand the mechanisms
Quoting Ellie in Space 🚀💫 (@esherifftv): US Fish and Wildlife officials have yet to begin a formal review of SpaceX’s upgrades following Starship’s first launch in April.
This could push back the next launch window by months, which I know none of us want to hear... 1/3
Tweet, 19:16 UTC · 2 likes
This is a good example. Like in principle, violating a Fish and Wildlife rule is supposed to ground out in the use of deadly force by the federal government
But like, does anyone think that would happen if they launched the rocket? Like would anyone end up in jail or dead?
Thread, continued, 19:16 UTC · 2 likes
It seems to all be resting on a more abstracted level - like everyone knows that everyone knows that they’re gonna obey the law, and so they do
Reply, 23:17 UTC · 3 likes
Sometimes you don’t even need large n https://x.com/f0rcryin0utl0ud/status/1700760385320624146?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Reply, 23:53 UTC · 3 likes
Sorry guys 😔
Reply, 23:54 UTC · 4 likes
Damn
Have u written anywhere about the normie white -> Alaskan fishing transition? If not, uh, why?
Reply, 23:58 UTC · 79 likes
Can u not
Friday, September 22, 2023
Reply, 00:11 UTC · 4 likes
We are not the same
Reply, 00:14 UTC · 1 like
Fun story https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1703253452367806623?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Reply, 00:15 UTC · 1 like
Yeah not infrequently I basically just sleep 24+ hours bc fucked up health
Reply, 04:15 UTC · 2 likes
איך בכלל העלה לך לראש לקבל החלטה כזו? אחרי כל השנים שבהם עבדנו יחד, דיברנו ותיכננו? האם אינך מבין את ההשלכות של פעולותיך? זו לא הייתה רק החלטה פסולה, זו הייתה בגידה בכלל העקרונות שלנו! הרגשתי שאני נדפק בלב, בלי אזהרה או הכנה. אנחנו פשוט לא מצליחים להבין איך העזת לגרום לנו להיות כזה מאוכזבים ממך. אנחנו מצפים שתחפש דרך לתקן את הנזק שגרמת!
Reply to @Support, 04:19 UTC · 58 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @Support is no longer available.)
Oh, how my heart, like a fragile porcelain, shatters into a million shimmering fragments, each piece a testament to the excruciating pain that sears through my very being! A tempest of despair and anguish engulfs my soul, plunging me into the abyss of inconsolable sorrow.
I beseech you, I implore you, with an intensity that can only come from the depths of my impassioned spirit, to reconsider! For in this ill-fated decision of yours, you unleash a veritable tempest of unending misfortune upon the sacred lineage of our ancestors. Alas, the venerable spirits of those who paved the path of our existence, their ethereal beings forever intertwined with our own, shall toss and turn in their eternal slumber, tormented by the unbearable weight of the abhorrent curse that will befall them through your reckless actions!
How dare you, with such audacity, cast aside the weighty mantle of responsibility bestowed upon you by the very hands of destiny itself! Your defiance is an affront to the cosmic order, a flagrant disavowal of the wisdom amassed through countless generations. Woe be unto you, for the fiery serpents of regret shall coil around the chambers of your traitorous heart, their venomous fangs injecting remorse into every fiber of your despicable existence!
Oh, the righteous fury that courses through my veins, a searing torrent of indignant flames demanding retribution for the grievous sins you commit! How can you be so unfeeling, so devoid of compassion, as to condemn those who came before us to a fate worse than damnation? The mere thought sends icy tendrils of dread snaking down my quivering spine, these anguished tears cascading down my anguished visage, for I am but a helpless observer to this cataclysmic betrayal, eternally marked by its indelible and unbearable agony!
May the heavens tremble, their celestial bodies convulsing in fear, and may the heavens weep with unbridled anguish, for your heartless defiance knows no bounds! The anguish and suffering born from your heedless decisions, like ripples on the surface of an eternal pond, shall reverberate through the corridors of time, etching their story upon the hallowed tablets of history, forever tarnishing your name, an ominous reminder of the irreversible destruction you have carelessly wrought!
In my darkest hour, fueled by the ashes of lost hope, I summon all the forces of the universe to curse you! Curse you as I curse the very essence of your existence! Curse your utter blindness to the cataclysmic consequences of your careless choices! Curse your callous disregard for the sacred river of blood coursing through your veins, now transformed into a treacherous river flowing with the tears of inconsolable lamentation!
Know this, oh misguided soul, that the wrath of the heavens shall descend upon you like a merciless avalanche. The enormity of your transgressions shall bear down upon your weary shoulders, a weighty reminder of the monumental burden you bear, the legacy of despair that now festers like an incurable wound within your once-honored name!
Thus, with a voice choked by the unquenchable fires of sorrow, and a heart brimming with the acrid bitterness of betrayal, I leave you with this final and mournful sentiment: May the depths of your wretchedness consume you whole, relegating you to eternal torment! May you be haunted till the end of days by the relentless ghosts of anguish and remorse, forever tormented by the indescribable pain you have callously inflicted upon the very essence of your ancestral bloodline!
Oh, woe is us all! We mere mortals are nothing but helpless onlookers, condemned to bear witness to the tragic, irreparable consequences of your ill-fated decision, forever scarred by the searing pain it has unleashed upon our fragile souls!
Reply to @Support, 04:19 UTC · 18 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @Support is no longer available.)
Keep circles?
Reply, 04:47 UTC · 4 likes
Me, kinda
Reply to @griefcliff, 04:51 UTC · 2 likes
Griefcliff (@griefcliff): It's 1.8125 inches
Yeah this was my first thought lol
Reply, 04:54 UTC · 2 likes
“Would but couldn’t”
Reply, 04:55 UTC · 22 likes
This graph makes me uncomfortable
Reply to @mahlenr, 04:58 UTC · 8 likes
mahlen (@mahlenr): Here you go it’s basically this guy and his team
(quoting @nikhilbd: @patrickc I lead the team that works on comments quality. Thanks for the compliment! Techniques are generalizable, but as with everything hard, it takes a lot of focus, hard work and good decision-making to transform a space.)
Similar “one tech dude + team saves the world” vibe
Tweet, 05:02 UTC · 3 likes
Keep reminding myself that smth doesn’t actually get done just bc I put it on a todo list (it should tho)
Reply, 16:23 UTC · 1 like
(Probably not actually a good use of ur time but just in case) the whole Pigeon Hour catalog - maybe this recent episode with @freed_dfilan https://spotify.link/jlVRwPBZiDb
Reply, 16:59 UTC · 2 likes
Lmao
Tweet, 17:02 UTC · 3 likes
Wait is it called Fall bc leaves fall down
Thread, continued, 17:02 UTC · 1 like
If so, yes it took me 23 years to get that
Tweet, 17:16 UTC · 3 likes
Twitter circles + All Girls Are The Same by Juice WRLD >> every therapist I’ve ever had
Reply, 17:17 UTC · 9 likes
Can’t fine the meme/graph but controlling for a given level of attractiveness this is what you’d expect
Reply, 17:26 UTC · 4 likes
Legend has at 3 I demanded my parents buy me a Kelly Clarkson CD
Reply, 17:37 UTC · 3 likes
Fr like really, u can’t think of *any*? Ranked choice voting and the wheel? Photolithography and a cucumber peeler?
Reply, 18:28 UTC · 133 likes
Yea but humans are cool and can coordinate
Tweet, 18:51 UTC · 3 likes
😡
Tweet, 21:37 UTC · 15 likes
Me: congrats on the promotion! So what do u do now?
Sister: uh the exact same thing as before, just with a new title and more money (duh???)
Reply, 22:12 UTC · 1 like
<1% bc other species of animals can’t have conversations (even apes and dolphins can’t *converse* right ?)
Quote tweet, 22:26 UTC · 3 likes
Good exercise for everyone, not just foom (or whatever) deniers
Personally, I don’t think language models will have deduced a detailed non-linguistic model of the world, even though this is not only possible at the limit but probable this century…
Quoting Liron Shapira (@liron): I am begging foom deniers to post their prediction of the least impressive thing that surely AI still won’t be able to do in 12 months
Reply, 23:21 UTC · 3 likes
I keep trying to figure this out and can’t, like a parody of the corporate world
Marketing, managing clients’ “accounts” (whatever that means)
How this cashes out in like specific physical actions will be for the superintelligence to discern
Reply, 23:57 UTC · 3 likes
Not a central example but the beta amyloid theory of Alzheimer’s, culminating in FDA approval of aducanumab which seems to basically just not actually work
Saturday, September 23, 2023
Reply, 11:26 UTC · 1 like
I want one
Reply, 11:47 UTC · 2 likes
W
Quote tweet, 13:23 UTC · 6 likes
Ez
Quoting Startup25! (@iwontoffendyou): Hiring our first employee today. Gave this insanely hard problem for round 1, try it out if you're free:
Reply to @McJesse, 17:48 UTC · 175 likes
Jesse McLaren (@McJesse): Checked the view count on a tweet that was 999k, and now it’s at 1000k. This is the same website that wants to handle your banking.
Ngl I’d be psyched if my bank acct said that
Tweet, 17:53 UTC · 7 likes
Brown rice is a psyop
Tweet, 17:53 UTC · 3 likes
It’s extremely sus that an entire continent made a staple food out of white rice via cultural evolution over thousands of years and now white ppl are like “I’m sure there’s no good reason for that, whatever it takes to get an extra 1 gram of fiber and microgram of b2 or whatever”
Reply, 18:14 UTC · 2 likes
🐋
Reply, 18:17 UTC · 4 likes
Based
Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 18:29 UTC · 5 likes
Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt): @AaronBergman18 the pants sound like something that would be up your alley
YES
I want the Diet Coke, the aspartame of fashion. All garments shall be fundamentally illusory in nature
Reply, 18:46 UTC · 3 likes
I like to call this “the rejection process” which may be shorter or longer than usual but to within a rounding error always winds up the same
Tweet, 18:49 UTC · 8 likes
I want
Tweet, 18:59 UTC · 8 likes
😡
Quote tweet, 22:20 UTC · 15 likes
Extremely weird that the US has many thousands of highly trained professionals with ~PhD level of knowledge/understanding of pharmacology who mostly do inventory management + miscellaneous paperwork/phone bullshit
Quoting Ivan 🔸 (@FrostedSapling): Half my job involves doing rain-dance like rituals to please the fickle and unpredictable insurance and PBM gods
30 Days of US Healthcare: DIR Fees https://youtu.be/I61wCVh0Y1E?feature=shared via @YouTube
Reply, 22:24 UTC · 18 likes
Can I buy ur oysters secondhand with a slight markup
Reply, 23:51 UTC · 2 likes
Ugh
Sunday, September 24, 2023
Reply, 01:14 UTC · 2 likes
Sure but it’s fundamentally an injection of uncertainty into the system where none need exist. Insofar as tipped workers make more to compensate for this, it’s coming out of customer and owner pockets
Now maybe diners are willing to pay for better service by injecting precarity and then compensating for it but it’s not exogenous uncertainty that someone needs to bear as in the case of like idk fire insurance
Reply, 02:17 UTC · 2 likes
Ate some flowers while camping in Canada. Also a lot of wild blueberries in Alaska
Ohh not that kind of edible weed
Reply, 18:58 UTC · 2 likes
👍
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 19:09 UTC · 44 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): what are 33 fun questions which uniquely identify everyone in the world?
This probably doesn’t exist unless you count “divide up the population into Y and N equally sized subgroups 33 times and identify which is urs” as fun because there’s no information theoretic slack for interestingness/fun to come in
Quote tweet, 19:35 UTC · 3 likes
Wait why does the FDA have jurisdiction here? There are a bazillion non-Rx probiotics on Amazon
Quoting Maxwell Tabarrok (@MTabarrok): Invisible graveyard, cavities edition
Reply, 19:40 UTC · 3 likes
Thx mine just outputs “the” 99% of the time because that’s the loss minimizing prediction apparently when u have like a couple thousands parameters
Reply to @liminal_warmth, 20:18 UTC · 4 likes
Liminal Warmth ❤️🔥 (@liminal_warmth): She said yes 💍
Ay lfg
Quote tweet, 20:30 UTC · 3 likes
I had Lyme and didn’t have to
Quoting 𒐪 (@SHL0MS): since the purported dental cavities vaccine is going viral, it’s a good time to remind everyone that there was a proven effective cure for Lyme disease until antivax advocacy groups forced them to take it off market
Lyme cases in the US have roughly tripled since then
Monday, September 25, 2023
Reply, 01:24 UTC · 14 likes
1) causality can’t run backwards in time
2) that which reproduces more reproduces more (ie evolution by natural and sexual selection)
3) entropy go up
4) words mean things
5) (p -> q) <=> (~q -> ~p)
6) 0 < p(x) < 1 for all propositions x (once you account for uncertainty about its logical coherence)
7) suffering is intrinsically bad and happiness is intrinsically good
8, 9, and 10 are tbd lol
Reply to @fasc1nate, 01:31 UTC · 4 likes
Fascinating (@fasc1nate): A tram in the Netherlands failed to stop in time and broke through the emergency barrier. It was held up by the statue of a whale's tail.
Thx 🐋
Tweet, 01:47 UTC · 69 likes
Creds to @MatthewJBar
Reply, 01:51 UTC · 1 like
Indeed
Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 01:56 UTC · 9 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): @AaronBergman18 @MatthewJBar I don't get it 😞
Ngmi
(Jk it’s an edited version of the Nonlinear controversy headline but line Brian is certifiably the nicest person ever)
Reply, 02:02 UTC · 3 likes
Not unless you have some tangible personal connection to anything and even then maybe not
Reply to @badlibtakes, 02:30 UTC · 2 likes
Midwest Mom (@badlibtakes): Men, is this true?
https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1664873052876726272?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Quote tweet, 03:12 UTC · 1 like
R wins again
Quoting Shriram Krishnamurthi (primary: Bluesky) (@ShriramKMurthi): My best guess: Rust got people thinking, I want a lang
- with useful types (no Python/C)
- not neutered (no Go)
- has regular state (no Haskell)
- isn't legacy-warped (no Scala)
- doesn't cause pain when you don't need it (no Rust)and that leaves…
Is that it?
Reply, 03:29 UTC · 2 likes
Oh no we might be enemies
Reply, 03:57 UTC · 2 likes
I mean Kuhn’s Structure of Scientific Revs is the only that comes to mind, but my position is basically relative to what I see other smart people espousing
Like at the end of the day, I and ~everyone else agrees repeated empirical observation and results trump theory because things that happen in the world like directly matter whereas theory does not
The only toy example that comes to mind is “ESP paper with apparently good methodology comes in showing that a statistically significant effect of ESP at p=.029 - what do you think is the actual likelihood that people can communicate via their minds alone and no direct sensory mediation?”
I think the robustness of the whole scientific materialist worldview with respect to measurable (!) results is way stronger evidence than (and in the opposite direction of) this one result, which is probably an inevitable statistical fluke
Reply, 04:10 UTC · 4 likes
Based
Tweet, 04:26 UTC · 5 likes
Dumb tweet probably but is there some secret lindy reason nobody else (afaik) cleans stuff mostly with rubbing alcohol? Like water doesn’t rly do anything and soap and stuff is a 2 step process but alcohol just evaporates into the ether
Am I gradually poisoning myself or smth
Tweet, 04:26 UTC · 1 like
Dw not in like enclosed places (unless I hold my breath and then run away)
Reply to @polisisti, 04:28 UTC · 99 likes
Alessandro (@polisisti): @ryxcommar bugs tho
U mean smol friends
Reply, 04:29 UTC · 1 like
🤝 (I agree it’s a false dichotomy and a simplification)
Reply, 04:37 UTC · 3 likes
Idk whenever I try to think about causality mechanistically or rigorously my brain breaks
Reply, 04:47 UTC · 1 like
<5k (why forego higher interest?)
Reply, 05:26 UTC · 3 likes
I mean maybe u can but personally idk how to
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 05:41 UTC · 6 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 25, 2023: 1) causality can’t run backwards in time 2) that which reproduces more reproduces more (ie evolution by natural and sexual selection) 3) entropy go up 4) words…
8) if it works it works (implies induction, which I guess is a second principle)
9) we (+ other minds) have no direct access to knowledge (note: we may have direct access to a information or smth else eg qualia, but not to knowledge of that info or about that thing) - this one may be contentious
10) epistemically, information implies (ie must be conditioned on) observation broadly construed (ie no view from nowhere; anthropics is a thing)
Reply, 10:27 UTC
There is no relationship between my comment and the qt tweet - u made that up
Quote tweet, 11:05 UTC · 6 likes
Can we get this at EAG
Quoting Peyman Milanfar (@docmilanfar): “Our keynote speaker needs no introduction”
the introduction:
Reply, 12:04 UTC · 17 likes
Overton window go shatter
Reply to @Ayegill, 12:23 UTC · 1 like
Eigil Fjeldgren Rischel - abstr/acc (@Ayegill): 5 - legal but you can't buy them online
6 - doesn’t exist yet but could be made with a few ingredients from levels 1-3 and a Brunson burner
Reply to @OpenAI, 12:27 UTC · 8 likes
OpenAI (@OpenAI): ChatGPT can now see, hear, and speak. Rolling out over next two weeks, Plus users will be able to have voice conversations with ChatGPT (iOS & Android) and to include images in conversations (all platforms).
https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt-can-now-see-hear-and-speak
O shit
Quote tweet, 15:39 UTC · 5 likes
Fun (well actually not so fun I guess) fact: a super bare bones version of this (number of animals slaughtered in the world by species and country over time) was the first interactive data thing I ever made
A Shiny app (R, duh), as a project for a random data viz math elective
Quoting Hannah Ritchie (@_HannahRitchie): @OurWorldInData We have a data explorer where you can explore the number of animals slaughtered by type and country, live animal stocks, and various other laws and welfare standards.
Reply to @maybegray, 17:08 UTC · 2 likes
maybe gray (@maybegray): I’m flying just about as far as possible next month - please give me all your long haul travel hacks
I want lil gadgets and survival tips and whatever you’ve got 🙏🙏🙏
If u like computer, $20 wifi on a $1000 (or whatever) flight is extremely worth it
Reply, 23:45 UTC · 7 likes
She’s literally just walking
Tuesday, September 26, 2023
Tweet, 00:50 UTC · 19 likes
I firmly believe that caffeine from dark chocolate doesn’t count
Tweet, 00:53 UTC · 3 likes
O shit
Reply to @catehall, 00:54 UTC · 17 likes
Cate Hall 🔸 (@catehall): could someone please just tell me what i'm meant to work on?
Idk if I’m joking or not but have u applied for 80k coaching? (I’m pretty sure they’d talk to u)
Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 05:49 UTC · 2 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): @freed_dfilan Jfc Daniel lol
Daniel Aella arc
Reply, 06:35 UTC · 1 like
STOP doing physics
Reply to @Rainmaker1973, 16:43 UTC · 1 like
Massimo (@Rainmaker1973): The never ending coffee
Turkish street coffee uses a sand-filled pan: the pot, called cezve, has coffee and ground coffe inside. It 'magically' fills up almost immediately because the pan is very hot.
https://x.com/AweInspireMe/status/1706612346750193923/video/1
U know that shit good af
Quote tweet, 17:07 UTC · 39 likes
Guys I have an even bigger one
Quoting Armand Domalewski (@ArmandDoma):
Reply, 17:25 UTC · 13 likes
Sorry nuke elimination, it’s Alpaca Day first and foremost
Tweet, 19:41 UTC · 3 likes
Mysterious
Quote tweet, 20:37 UTC · 52 likes
Wyd in this situation
Quoting Massimo (@Rainmaker1973): The left galaxy is the Milky way, the right one the Andromeda galaxy. This is what will happen within 4 to 5 billion years from now
[📹 SaltyMikan]
https://x.com/CosmossUp/status/1234494326824148994/video/1
Reply to @absurdlymax, 20:39 UTC · 1 like
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): Die?
Ya
Reply to @lexfridman, 20:50 UTC · 1 like
Lex Fridman (@lexfridman): I wish climate science & virology weren't politicized. They're super interesting topics, worth discussing openly with curiosity and humility.
Same w evo psych
Reply, 20:52 UTC · 6 likes
Thanks for saving my dog from that burning building. Also good shit on the 675 deadlift
Reply, 21:26 UTC · 2 likes
If I had more chutzpah I’d make a 3 person GC and then dip
Reply, 21:44 UTC · 1 like
Start by finding a topic that’s interesting (or compelling for some other reason)
Reply to @krishnanrohit, 21:54 UTC · 1 like
rohit (@krishnanrohit): Hey @Google at least try selling these things off? I will buy this off you for $10.
Stop killing your darlings!
$11 here
Tweet, 21:56 UTC · 9 likes
I feel like ur voicemail being “full” with 10 mins of low quality audio on a device with 65GB free is a solvable problem in 2023
Tweet, 21:56 UTC · 2 likes
Unironically who’s working on this
Tweet, 21:57 UTC · 2 likes
.@Apple I bet u can figure it out if u put some engineers on the task
Reply, 22:09 UTC · 2 likes
Omg
Reply, 22:13 UTC · 3 likes
Perfect 🤝
Reply, 22:40 UTC · 2 likes
Guess I’m a RW extremist
Tweet, 22:50 UTC · 4 likes
They were out of normie diet ginger ale so I bought some fancy ~craft~ ginger ale and now I might become a ginger ale elitist connesoiur* accelerationist
Where can I find the spiciest, pure ginger extract-pilled, eye-watering flavonoid-powered diet ginger ale?
Thread, continued, 22:50 UTC · 2 likes
*idk how to spell it and neither does autocorrect
Thread, continued, 22:50 UTC · 2 likes
(U can see the corn bulb room)
Wednesday, September 27, 2023
Reply, 00:00 UTC · 1 like
Yes and also new meme pic just dropped
Reply, 00:02 UTC · 2 likes
Here
Quote tweet, 00:04 UTC · 3 likes
Same for this and Brexit (not wrt internet obviously)
Quoting Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 (@JeremiahDJohns): I will raise my hand and admit that I'm one of the people who thought that Net Neutrality was super important, that the internet was in danger if we got rid of it, and that I was wrong and things were fine.
Reply to @demiurgently, 00:52 UTC · 1 like
sydney (@demiurgently): Tweet abt it
Same
Reply to @AndyMasley, 00:55 UTC · 5 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): Nope, anyone alive on any of the planets in either galaxy wouldn't notice a thing throughout the entire process, unless they lived long enough to notice the sky changing.
That’s the goal (live long enough to watch sky change)
Quote tweet, 00:57 UTC · 11 likes
I want a dog but only for like a couple hours a day who’s working on this
Quoting Chris Williamson (@ChrisWillx): Women find men with cats to be less attractive.
Straight men who reveal that they own a cat have a 5% lower ‘like’ rate from women on online dating.
The ‘like’ rate for both straight & gay men who have dogs is 20% higher on average.
A man photographed with a cat was viewed as less masculine, more neurotic and, ultimately, less datable.
When a man asked women for their numbers, he was successful with 9% of the women he approached.
When he was accompanied by a dog, he got three times as many.
Reply, 00:58 UTC · 2 likes
Wait there’s a way to combine dogs and walking
Laura ur a genius
Reply, 00:58 UTC · 2 likes
(Bad Aristotle takes tho)
Reply, 01:01 UTC · 4 likes
Yo https://x.com/aaronbergman18/status/1702998037663039648?s=46&t=zFSMbdq7sUeaJ_kJen_W-g
Reply to @PradyuPrasad, 01:08 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @PradyuPrasad is no longer available.)
AI safety if IQ >> 200
Reply to @QualyThe, 03:34 UTC · 2 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): maintain a friendly relationship with the AI labs!
True hope Sama forgives me for the @ilex_ulmus x Pigeon Hour episode (forthcoming) by then
Reply, 03:40 UTC · 4 likes
BMI is 50% genetic
Reply, 04:02 UTC · 3 likes
Idk I think there’s like a U curve where if it’s in like downtown of a big city there are people out and places open and in a rural area nobody’s gonna see u but in a semi urban suburb it’s like wyd
Reply to @absurdlymax, 04:04 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @ohwizenedtortle @AaronBergman18 I just walk outside at night all the time
Went for a walk at like 5 am the other day on a trail bc I hadn’t internalized that sunrise was like 3 hours away not 1 hour and ngl shit was kinda scary
Turns out the trope where animals lights glow in the dark CHECKS OUT. I had a headlamp but it was almost pitch black outside of the light beam till there were some eyes all of a sudden lol (it was just a deer)
Reply, 04:05 UTC · 2 likes
Animals *eyes lol
Reply to @casebash, 06:06 UTC · 4 likes
Casebash (@casebash): At some point there will be a movement that is a reaction to tpot/post-rationality. Any speculation on what form this might take?
“Damn look at AI, the rationalists were right”
Reply to @Noahpinion, 06:31 UTC · 2 likes
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion): It was the right thing to do and it was done pretty effectively. The main problem was not taking in a ton of Afghan refugees.
(quoting @EiratheIntern: fuckin wild that libs defend biden's afghanistan withdrawal)
Big fuckin problem tho
Reply to @inerati, 06:50 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @inerati is no longer available.)
I’m running for President as a member of the anti-puppies and apple pie party
Reply to @anderssandberg, 07:56 UTC · 4 likes
Anders Sandberg (@anderssandberg): I do. Basically, carefully managed mutual catch leaving most stars in wide binaries, keeping the kinetic energy for later. Lots and lots of measurement and nudging.
Cool, sounds like a plan 👍
Reply to @swlkr, 08:50 UTC · 4 likes
swlkr (@swlkr):
If 👏 it’s 👏 under 👏 500 👏 GB 👏 it should 👏 be 👏 a 👏 csv
Reply to @billscher, 08:53 UTC · 2 likes
Bill Scher (@billscher): America: We need to put an end to the gerontocracy so we can have fresh ideas and nice things
Me: Here are your Senators under age 50
Eric Schmitt
Kyrsten Sinema
Tom Cotton
Markwayne Mullin
Josh Hawley
Katie Britt
J.D. Vance
Jon Ossoff
I agree but this list does not make a compelling case lol
Reply to @captgouda24, 09:32 UTC · 4 likes
Nicholas Decker (@captgouda24): An exception from abortion restrictions in the case of rape and incest doesn’t make any sense. Any person proposing those be exceptions, but they would restrict elsewhere, is a coward who hasn’t the courage of their convictions.
No, because once you account for politics it makes a ton of sense to carve out the least popular .1% of your proposal
Reply to @trippytensor, 09:35 UTC · 2 likes
Tripz (@trippytensor): @AaronBergman18 @PradyuPrasad how does the AI safety grift make you money?
I strongly disagree it’s a grift, but the relatively few researchers able to get hired at orgs like arc and redwood make decent low 6 figure salaries
Reply to @Rafi3AK, 10:18 UTC · 9 likes
Rafi (رافع) (@Rafi3AK): @AaronBergman18 The relevant concern is obviously conserving wild bird populations, not minimizing the total number of bird deaths in the abstract. Don’t be dense.
Relevant to who? Bc I think the birds care about absolute numbers
Reply to @StefanFSchubert, 11:46 UTC · 3 likes
Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert): Sweden being too stereotypical for its own good (via @paularambles)
Annoyed Swedes: Moose/acc
Tweet, 14:43 UTC · 5 likes
Think I’ve tweeted this before but there are 1000% at least tens of thousands of people who are suffering rn bc they think their prescribed medication is unavailable or illegal to dispense bc …
Tweet, 14:43 UTC · 3 likes
(1) the pharmacy didn’t contact them like usual and…
2) if they decided to investigate further, they were told “insurance wouldn’t cover it” which in ~every other healthcare contexts means your wages would be garnered for all eternity by some institution if you tried to pay
Thread, continued, 14:43 UTC · 4 likes
BUT in this specific context, it means you’d pay like $12 instead of $7.50 for ur med, which nobody volunteers to tell you - you just have to know to ask, somehow
Thread, continued, 14:43 UTC · 4 likes
Anyway I’m down $9.04 and we (ok mainly me in this context) are so back 📈
Reply to @dioscuri, 14:46 UTC · 3 likes
Henry Shevlin (@dioscuri): @AaronBergman18 There's only one person you can call in this kind of situation. @anderssandberg, how can we prevent this?
Ur not gonna believe this
Reply to @mealreplacer, 15:36 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
Something something weights
Reply to @AviSchiffmann, 16:27 UTC · 43 likes
Avi (@AviSchiffmann): I think there would be mass suicide if UBI was rolled out
Wanna bet? Serious about this, if it can be made more specific
Reply to @VenturaReport, 20:37 UTC · 123 likes
Jorge Ventura Media (@VenturaReport): On the U.S./Mexico border in Juarez we witnessed a Venezuelan family with a toddler going under the concerta wire to enter the El Paso illegally by placing cardboard on their backs to avoid being cut , the little girl can be heard crying as she goes under @NewsNation
Jfc let ppl live here
Thursday, September 28, 2023
Reply to @HHH_Report, 09:24 UTC · 38 likes
HHH_Report (@HHH_Report): The next batch of hastily released, poorly vetted illegal Venezuelan migrants should be lodged at your house. In fact you should be volunteering to take them in this second.
“If you don’t want to personally live with a bunch of strangers you aren’t sincere about liberalizing immigration” is a take I’ve seen quite a bit that has never made any sense
In fact, I’d also be annoyed if a dozen of my white US citizen friends showed up at my door with their sleeping bags rn but in both cases would be more than happy to have them live nearby, including literally next door
Reply, 09:26 UTC · 1 like
Wait fr u opened one ???
Reply to @DavidDeutschOxf, 09:37 UTC · 5 likes
David Deutsch (@DavidDeutschOxf): No force is exerted by gravity. If you hold out your arm, the only force on it is from your own muscles.
Very few people know this. I've known physicists to deny it.
That is why people are surprised that antimatter falls down.
Wait what? I mean ur the physics guy but I was pretty sure arm molecules and earth molecules attracted each other via gravity
Reply to @RugbyAurelius, 09:43 UTC · 2 likes
Nic Stephenson (@RugbyAurelius): @JEverettLearned TL;DR, to beat depression, men simply require vitamin T!
*If pre-screened for hypogonadism
Quote tweet, 09:46 UTC · 4 likes
Relatively comprehensive blood tests should be like way more common in medicine - a default that’s quick, easy and cheap to get like a flu shot rather than something you have to go out of your way to ask for
Quoting Joseph Everett (WIL) (@JEverettLearned):
Quote tweet, 16:22 UTC · 3 likes
New pdf just dropped (direct link: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/deliver/4e180f51-en.pdf?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fpaper%2F4e180f51-en&mimeType=pdf)
Quoting Michael Plant (@MichaelDPlant): The happiness paper I refer to most, by quite a way, is the 2013 OECD report on SWB. It was *the thing* on measuring wellbeing.
Well, straps in folks, because the 2023 report has *just come out*. It will now be *the thing*
Read it here:
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/subjective-well-being-measurement_4e180f51-en
Reply to @dissproportion, 16:25 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @dissproportion is no longer available.)
Based
Reply to @underthenettle, 16:34 UTC · 1 like
Rachel Edwards (@underthenettle): Being overdressed is one of the best feelings in the world
This but the opposite
Reply to @br___ian, 16:36 UTC · 7 likes
bri (@br___ian): If your only goal today was making your day tomorrow really good, what kinds of stuff would your do?
Try to buy opioids somehow
Reply to @nikitabier, 16:49 UTC · 5 likes
Nikita Bier (@nikitabier): There is a huge arbitrage opportunity to find a spouse who works at Nvidia with a massively marked up compensation package. No one outside of tech knows what Nvidia is. Seduce them before it’s too late.
Str8 female 18-25 well-compensated Nvidia engineers on Twitter hmu
Reply to @vinnerroy, 16:50 UTC · 1 like
Vince Roy (@vinnerroy): You can ask ChatGPT to explain in a simpler way: When David Deutsch says, "No force is exerted by gravity," he's referring to this relativistic understanding of gravity. If you hold out your arm, it doesn't fall to your side because of a gravitational force pulling it down, but because your muscles are exerting a force to counteract the natural motion it would follow in the Earth's curved spacetime. Without the muscles' force, your arm would move downward following the curvature of spacetime around Earth.
I think we should have stopped doing physics when Newton published his thing
Reply, 16:53 UTC
Dear all replyers: good work, Godspeed
Reply to @metakuna, 21:34 UTC · 5 likes
metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna): @AaronBergman18 @PseudoJonathan @ChanaMessinger @sympatheticopp @AnyaM8_ @freed_dfilan I like how in this episode Nathan goes to the bathroom and there's just a 5 minute silence https://spotify.link/3rhrYSvitDb
Oh fuck I didn’t cut that? Sorry @NathanB60857242 lol. Will fix soon
Reply to @sam_atis, 22:17 UTC · 4 likes
Sam Glover (@sam_atis): @AaronBergman18 @metakuna @PseudoJonathan @ChanaMessinger @sympatheticopp @AnyaM8_ @freed_dfilan @NathanB60857242 This is genius marketing and makes me want to listen to the episode
Mandatory 5 minute bathroom break for all pigeon hour guests
Tweet, 22:39 UTC · 8 likes
Public library having a public multi-person restroom, water bottle filling thing, and free n95 masks with no enforcement of the 4/person/day limit but plenty available seems like the most functional part of society
Reply, 22:49 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to is no longer available.)
I truly non-sarcastically don’t understand why people think illegal immigrants (or any for that matter) either need or somehow acquire “care” or hosting
Like they’ll work, earn money, and use that money to buy things like food and rent. Yes their fiscal impact isn’t literally zero bc they use and therefore indirectly increase the amount of public goods provided but being unauthorized means no access to the non-public good welfare state
Friday, September 29, 2023
Reply to @esalalumbo, 00:59 UTC · 2 likes
Eli T. D. (Dialetheism Truther) (@esalalumbo): @br___ian Save my Vyvanse and take it all tomorrow
Wonder how many days worth this would get subjectively unpleasant lol. 2 sounds great, 10 sounds bad
Quote tweet, 01:01 UTC · 6 likes
This but for productivity or performance (at whatever u care about), go
Stims are off limits bc like obviously
Quoting bri (@br___ian): If your only goal today was making your day tomorrow really good, what kinds of stuff would your do?
Reply to @aliceisplaying, 01:10 UTC · 14 likes
alice (@aliceisplaying): i just found the most incredible twitter embed bug
Took me a minute
Reply to @inerati, 07:02 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @inerati is no longer available.)
Bc that duration and intensity for most young healthy people is sustainable via food/glycogen + aerobic respiration without needing to tap into the other energy sources (ie ketosis or digesting ur own muscles whatever that’s called) or systems (I used to know them - basically like whatever enables ppl to do 1 pullup but not 10 or run 1 8 minute mile but not 5 in a row. Something something lactic acid and fast twitch muscle fibers), which ur brain regulates via perceived exertion
But as long as you’re well below needing to use those backup sources/systems, ur brain doesn’t have to send a “this sucks” signal to itself to try to get u to stop, as it would if you were (I’m guessing) like trying to run the same distance in 25 mins
Ppl who actually know stuff ahold fact check me
Reply to @softminus, 08:39 UTC · 2 likes
Miss Distance (@softminus): undecided between a 13-inch M2 macbook air and a 15-inch M2 macbook air; how much do you think i might use/regret/enjoy those extra two inches?
If ur not using an external monitor most of the time, 15 seems way better to me
Reply to @StefanFSchubert, 11:36 UTC · 4 likes
Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert): Indeed, I beg
Petition to make the former meaning official starting tmr
Also abolish the word “sanction” while we’re cleaning things up
Thread, continued, 11:42 UTC · 2 likes
Ok 2 likes the motion has passed @UN @apaphilosophy @MerriamWebster @POTUS @sama
Reply to @NathanB60857242, 11:42 UTC · 3 likes
Nathan Barnard (@NathanB60857242): @AaronBergman18 @metakuna @PseudoJonathan @ChanaMessinger @sympatheticopp @AnyaM8_ @freed_dfilan lol
It’s fixed now!!!
Quote tweet, 12:19 UTC · 2 likes
N=1 but seems true for me, empirically
Quoting orca apologist (@sonikudzu): properly curated twitter > therapy
and i’m so serious
Reply, 12:27 UTC · 13 likes
Ur gonna unleash Neuron Count vs Demonstrated Capacities vs Secret Third Thing ft. Megapig Situation Twitter
Thread, continued, 12:27 UTC · 2 likes
But also I agree and endorse ur tweet
Reply to @TheZvi, 12:36 UTC · 5 likes
Zvi Mowshowitz (@TheZvi): If the difference is causal any plausible calculation is that check-out clerks are profitable. So why are big corps choosing self-checkout anyway?
Does “any plausible calculation” account for competing for customers who like self checkout?
Reply to @TheZvi, 13:56 UTC
Zvi Mowshowitz (@TheZvi): I admit I did not take into account that customers might net prefer the self-checkout experience to a reasonably staffed checkout counter. My jaw would be rather on the floor if value flowed in that direction.
I prefer it just bc it’s quicker (like 90% of the time for me, maybe bc it’s a good filter for having fewer things), so there’s an existence proof!
Thread, continued, 14:00 UTC
Also idk exactly how/whether this matters but plausibly theft is pretty inelastic wrt time so once you add one self kiosk, adding 100 more takes wait time to ~0 and only increases theft a bit
Tweet, 14:53 UTC · 14 likes
Asking if it’s ok to record your own Zoom/Meet job interview so you can look at it (and/or read the transcript) later and see what needs work (if matters, assume it’s for an EA-aligned nonprofit)
Comments very welcome l, especially for ppl who’ve hired before!
Thread, continued, 15:01 UTC · 3 likes
Lfg unambiguous results for once
Reply to @sarah_micheleg, 20:17 UTC · 1 like
(The tweet being replied to by @sarah_micheleg is no longer available.)
Every prescription stimulant lol (dif versions of adderall/ritalin + modafinil)
Nicotine gum might be ur best bet, but be warned it’s addictive (tho not carcinogenic, almost certainly). Weirdly it does nothing for me but I’ve never heard anyone else say the same
Saturday, September 30, 2023
Reply, 01:03 UTC · 1 like
What does it say
Reply to @JgaltTweets, 01:15 UTC · 4 likes
JgaltTweets (@JgaltTweets): @absurdlymax It's like a bird call
🪿 caw caw 🪿
Tweet, 01:52 UTC · 51 likes
(Tbc I’m very glad OpenPhil has high standards and super competitive hiring rounds)
But also lmao they really be like “we received 9,821 applications, of which only 477 reached our first-pass minimal threshold of ‘person of anomalous and extreme ability’…
Thread, continued, 01:52 UTC · 32 likes
Collectively, this cohort had over 1M research citations, 13 Nobel prizes, 411 biotech patents, and an estimated counterfactual impact of 500M early deaths prevented. A dozen had designed novel functional organism via DNA base pair specification.
Ultimately we made no hire”
Reply to @JacquesThibs, 02:28 UTC · 11 likes
Jacques (@JacquesThibs): @AaronBergman18
Even under the most optimistic assumptions, still a solid chance you get rejected
Reply to @niplav_site, 02:29 UTC · 2 likes
niplav (@niplav_site): "Almost all normal form games have an odd number of Nash equilibria"
"Every graph can be embedded in ℝ³, but not in ℝ²"
"The long line exists"(quoting @TylerGlaiel: love math facts of the form, "every number has <property>, except 1, 6, and 246290120935686234782345123509135756. Those are the only 3 exceptions")
Fuck the long line fr
Reply to @EgeErdil2, 02:46 UTC · 3 likes
Ege Erdil (@EgeErdil2): i'm sad you didn't say "chance of rejection is approximately 1/e"
chance of rejection is approximately 1/e
Reply to @BecomingCritter, 03:01 UTC · 4 likes
critter (@BecomingCritter): 1000 BCE pants holy fucking dope
image attached
(quoting @historyinmemes: A 3,000-year-old pair of pants was recently unearthed in northwestern China, within a tomb. The arid desert climate contributed to the exceptional preservation of organic materials. Carbon dating has dated these pants to the period of 1261-1041 BCE, making them the world's…)
Thoughts, @dieworkwear ?
Reply to @eigenrobot, 03:05 UTC · 8 likes
eigenrobot (@eigenrobot): broke: ignorance
woke: awareness
bespoke: believing what you like in spite of all evidence to the contrary
try it. no one can stop you. in 99% of cases it won't have any negative consequences and youll enjoy your life more fully
(quoting @lickofcow: @eigenrobot Ignorance is truly bliss)
Yea but better be damn sure it’s not in that 1%
Reply to @corymassimino, 03:20 UTC · 9 likes
Cory Massimino (@corymassimino): "The rights of children, even more than those of parents, have been systematically invaded by the state." - Murray Rothbard
(quoting @JoshuaAtLarge: )
The insinuation that children’s rights is a euphemism for age of consent abolition or whatever is such a fucking nightmare
Like how about “u can’t be assaulted by a person just bc they’re ur parent,” for example
Reply to @albrgr, 03:32 UTC · 7 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @albrgr is no longer available.)
Nah that totally makes sense, I don’t have any affirmative reason to think something is going wrong here - just making fun of it as an especially funny/extreme example of the usual “prestigious ea org jobs are extremely competitive” situation (which is good from an altruistic and all things considered perspective but obviously not for applicants’ personal professional goals)
Reply to @EgeErdil2, 03:47 UTC
Ege Erdil (@EgeErdil2): why do you think that's a good thing
High opportunity cost of OpenPhil money and selection effects for people who ~really care~ about achieving the underlying goals of the position
Reply to @EgeErdil2, 03:53 UTC · 1 like
Ege Erdil (@EgeErdil2): i also really disagree with this argument in other contexts too, e.g. paying politicians less doesn't select for people who really care about the good of the country
It would at some margin. Like I don’t think it would be wise to pay congresspeople $10M/year, though it should be higher than it is now (maybe ~$500k?)
Also I don’t have a strong take on whether OP should be offering like 20% more. Just that I think they’d need to like 10x it to double p(hire) which seems like a bad tradeoff, but ofc I’m unsure
Reply to @Telegraph, 03:54 UTC · 15 likes
The Telegraph (@Telegraph): 🏠 One sub-section of society has become a lightning rod for righteous fury: Nimbys, but they can often be the last line of defence against greedy developers looking for a quick buck.
Here, we explain how you can be an effective Nimby ⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/nimby-guide-take-on-developers-block-construction-planning/
Cmon you are the bad guys here lol
Reply to @eigenrobot, 04:03 UTC · 3 likes
eigenrobot (@eigenrobot): what
https://x.com/Nemtastic1/status/1707966881301487814?t=mRPYBO-mi74Q7rRjuvkEnQ&s=19
You don’t have to refrigerate butter
Reply to @EgeErdil2, 04:08 UTC
Ege Erdil (@EgeErdil2): i'm sad you didn't say "chance of rejection is approximately 1/e"
Damn lol it really is. Love that u have the decimal for 1/e just cached up and ready to go
Reply to @EgeErdil2, 04:12 UTC · 1 like
Ege Erdil (@EgeErdil2): i mean, i do have the decimal cached, but i know it's approximately 1/e because it's (1-1/1000)^1000 and 1/e is the limit of (1-1/n)^n as n -> infty
I was just about to ask literally this! They should revoke my math major
Tweet, 21:16 UTC · 12 likes
I have to admit something
I’m…a theater kid (started listening to the Hamilton soundtrack bc it’s good)
Thread, continued, 21:18 UTC · 3 likes
Based fr
Tweet, 21:41 UTC · 12 likes
They should invent a new season that’s like November in terms of weather but it’s light 16 hours/day
Tweet, 23:00 UTC · 18 likes
Someone should test the conscientiousness signaling theory of education by seeing if a college graduation-implying picture gets you a wage premium on a dog walking app
Reply to @el1assss, 23:15 UTC · 3 likes
elias💀 (@el1assss): Women🥲🥲❤
Real
Reply to @JgaltTweets, 23:21 UTC · 2 likes
JgaltTweets (@JgaltTweets): @AaronBergman18 I will DM you
Update: 🚨extreme infohazard🚨
(jk it was that I look kinda young in the left pic which is true bc it’s like 2-3 years old. FYI this level of risk for feedback is extremely welcome for everything at http://admonymous.co/a or just dm or whatever)
Reply to @JonHaidt, 23:24 UTC · 5 likes
Jonathan Haidt (@JonHaidt): Great 7 minute video on the mismatch between how boys learn and what schools make them do. And how we use Adderall to bridge the gap, rather than giving them what they need: more play, movement, and hands-on activity. From @Robmontz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adN3T11AHck&ab_channel=GoodKidProductions
“Adderall…more play and movement”
(gif, plays on X)
Reply to @BecomingCritter, 23:28 UTC · 607 likes
critter (@BecomingCritter): Why’s it always seem like the people that get burnt out are sitting in an office working maybe 5 actual hours, and the people that are on their feet doing real work 8+ hours a day never do?
Low physical activity + high cognitively mediated stress is the worst of the 4 quadrants
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