Aaron Bergman's tweets, November 2022
Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in November 2022 and has not deleted: 105 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's.
This page is one month of the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets, which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: October 2022. Next month: December 2022.
Tuesday, November 1, 2022
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 04:45 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
I recognize that my stegosaurus-festival dragon ordering was quite heterodox
Reply to @panickssery, 07:54 UTC · 2 likes
Arjun Panickssery (@panickssery): What are the topics in the lesswrong/rationality discourse that have the most debate or least consensus, like acausal trade or epistemic modesty or whatever
P(doom)
Reply to @mattyglesias, 18:36 UTC
(The tweet being replied to by @mattyglesias is no longer available.)
Guessing you realize this, but the main danger here (if this seems bad to you) is that you’ll get fewer interesting replies because people don’t know what will be read as annoying
Tweet, 22:09 UTC · 86 likes
Anesthesiologist (who’d just identified herself as such): any recreational drug use?
Me: weed a few times
A: *eyebrows raise* In the last 48 hours??
Me: uh no, about a year a…
A: *relaxes* appreciate the honesty hon, but we only care if you’re high *right now*
Me: right🫠
Reply to @frances__lorenz, 22:17 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)
Apparently this is an unpopular opinion but, regardless of if it’s any healthier, IMO ‘runny’ peanut butter tastes way better than the no-stir emulsified peanut-adjacent stuff
Wednesday, November 2, 2022
Reply, 00:27 UTC · 3 likes
Me: a few times
A: to jail?
Me: damn right
Reply to @absurdlymax, 00:30 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): what healthy epistemic norms do to a mf
Luckily it was a doctor lol, HIPPA is kinder to good epistemics than Miranda rights
Reply to @daniel_271828, 08:52 UTC · 3 likes
zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828): I keep hearing “signals are only credible if they’re costly”. This is true for signals of things that are high status, but not generally for stuff like allegiance. E.g., if someone wears a Yankees jersey, that’s not a costly signal, but I’d still believe they’re a Yankees fan.
Maybe the synthesis is “signals are only credible if they’re opportunity-costly” (the Yankees jersey comes at the expense of every other jersey - wearing a shirt with the logos of all MLB teams doesn’t signal allegiance to any one)
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 21:45 UTC · 3 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): you can’t tile the universe until you’ve finished tiling the bathroom
Maybe metaphorically, but I don’t think this is literally true
Reply to @absurdlymax, 23:44 UTC · 5 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): Effective Altruism is a research question, a community, and a....
anything else?
Movement, activity, instantiation of some abstract thing like a question/ideology, bad thing to name a child, cluster of concepts because words don’t mean things but not in a well-defined sense, every combination of every correct answer, [nothing] bc all propositions are false
Thursday, November 3, 2022
Reply to @CineraVerinia, 01:56 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @CineraVerinia is no longer available.)
I vaguely recall hearing that this sort of thing can be caused/exacerbated by insufficient vitamin k
Tweet, 02:02 UTC · 4 likes
Serious question: what happens if you just don’t pay a surprise medical bill?
Is a change credit score the “only”enforcement mechanism? If so, can someone start a credit report company that just doesn’t take these specifically into account?
Recently got my first ($30, luckily)
Reply to @Jess_Riedel, 05:11 UTC
Jess Riedel (@Jess_Riedel): @AaronBergman18 I think in principle the hospital can take you to court, and the judge in principle can order you to pay and garnish wages if you don't, which you could only escape by filing for bankruptcy. But in practice this rarely happens.
If I had a lot of money, a team of excellent lawyers, and nothing better to do, I’d want to follow this through and see+document what happens
Reply to @AndyMasley, 05:13 UTC · 2 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): I tend to assume most people are at least as smart as me, and any story about most people being actively tricked in a way I'm not (as opposed to just lacking specific bits of knowledge) is probably wrong.
Uh Andy most people are not as smart as you under any reasonable understanding of “smart” (p<1/(1e1e10))
Reply to @insuffpedant, 06:59 UTC · 2 likes
Mary Penn 🔍 (@insuffpedant): @AaronBergman18 @NathanpmYoung @EzraJNewman Assuming this 'the bathroom' is a subset of 'the universe,' the statement would appear valid to me
Counterexample: the bathroom is the very last untitled piece of the universe
Reply to @metakuna, 23:15 UTC · 1 like
metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna): [annual tweet shorting the "gut microbiome" as a concept]
I’ll take the other end of this
Thread, continued, 23:16 UTC · 1 like
And then some, actually. Would guess it’s underrated, not even correctly highly rated
Friday, November 4, 2022
Reply to @robertwiblin, 17:13 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @robertwiblin is no longer available.)
Wait Twitter is good tho
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 19:27 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
Yeah but just bc those sound good not for anything to do with the site getting shut down
Tweet, 21:07 UTC · 18 likes
I have become the man I used to despise (guy who buys a 24 pack of water bottles bc filling up a glass is trivially inconvenient)
Thread, continued, 21:10 UTC · 6 likes
I really used to take my own plastic fork to chipotle
Reply, 21:15 UTC · 4 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): based and Wiblin landfill-pilled
I buy 10,000 packs of plastic grocery bag just to throw out for fun
Saturday, November 5, 2022
Reply, 01:16 UTC · 2 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @AaronBergman18 I'm pro optimizing along every axis but this seems like zero net gain to me
This isn’t even a nerdy optimizing thing haha, and either way the magnitude is pretty small
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 01:26 UTC · 6 likes
Aaron Bergman, November 4, 2022: I really used to take my own plastic fork to chipotle
Seems like some of y’all really don’t like this, so:
- The environmental externalities here are extremely small; your intuitions are wrong
- but I should+will start accounting for the delivery person’s added effort by increasing the tip some by some amount (idk how much yet)
Thread, continued, 01:27 UTC · 1 like
Locking comments so no one (not just me - y’all too) wastes any more time on this
Quote tweet, 01:30 UTC · 9 likes
I survived a ~10M view pile-on without locking, but this has crossed a line
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Locking comments so no one (not just me - y’all too) wastes any more time on this
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 08:17 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
Tbf i did mute it lol
Reply to @silly_armadillo, 18:43 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @silly_armadillo is no longer available.)
It’s true I don’t have kids, so some evidence you’re right
Reply to @focusfronting, 18:52 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @focusfronting is no longer available.)
This is one of my most genius ideas
Thread, continued, 18:54 UTC · 2 likes
But till then, normalize putting all the files you need in a public Google Drive folder
Sunday, November 6, 2022
Reply to @algekalipso, 05:57 UTC · 3 likes
Captain Pleasure, Andrés Gómez Emilsson (@algekalipso): Vertical axis corresponds to "energy level", which is highly correlated with dose of DMT.
Ok but “energy level” ≠ energy level (right?)“Perceived arousal”? “Basal metabolic rate”? “That which seems appropriately described by the word ‘energy’ while on DMT”?
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 06:16 UTC · 1 like
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
Is there like a good theory of what aesthetic intuitions are tracking above and beyond “flowers pretty, calories nearby”?
Reply to @StefanFSchubert, 16:36 UTC · 6 likes
Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert): Correlation doesn't imply causation, Mr
As written it’s just an imperative “eat too many” and a prediction (“you’ll turn into…”)
Reply to @clhubes, 19:37 UTC · 21 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @clhubes is no longer available.)
Where does a 2 year old learn about subspecies of camel?
Reply to @clhubes, 19:37 UTC · 17 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @clhubes is no longer available.)
P>0 it’s a dromedary farm so he’s completely correct
Reply, 20:02 UTC · 6 likes
Oh same (well, at 22) - sent me straight to google lol
Monday, November 7, 2022
Reply to @mealreplacer, 22:01 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
👏survey 👏 data 👏 is 👏 fake 👏
(until proven otherwise)
Quote tweet, 22:09 UTC · 2 likes
Idea: this but with four levels
- estimated true proportion
- estimated self-reported proportion
- self-reported proportion
- best-guess true proportion
Quoting Jonathan Mannhart 🔎 (@JMannhart): Found this very interesting:
Tuesday, November 8, 2022
Reply to @postjawline, 22:14 UTC
post jawline (@postjawline): @humford https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-08/binance-s-zhao-sbf-ed-ftx-s-bankman-fried?sref=htOHjx5Y
Anyone tryna unlock? 🙏🏼
Reply to @absurdlymax, 22:18 UTC · 7 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): Good news everyone! We're funding constrained again
I feel weirdly out of the loop on this. Is there a decent point estimate of the magnitude and % of change in value of all EA foundations’ and megadonor wealth, over the last 2/6/12/? months?
Reply to @nkreu113r, 22:38 UTC · 3 likes
noah (@nkreu113r): @AaronBergman18 @absurdlymax according to bloomberg sbf just ate a 90%+ drawdown
Oh shit
Wednesday, November 9, 2022
Tweet, 00:51 UTC · 13 likes
I’m sure this is very dumb but…
“liquidity crisis”…sounds like FTX needed cash? How much would have bought them a very strong bargaining position wrt Binance? And they couldn’t borrow this even at >15% using real assets (say, naming rights to a stadium) as collateral?
Thread, continued, 00:51 UTC · 8 likes
I’ll personally loan them $100 👍, FTX dm me for PayPal
Tweet, 05:36 UTC · 8 likes
What’s the elasticity of EA funding?
Sure hope @dwarkesh_sp was prescient here, but either way we’re gonna find out
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/asthpxHedcbjxTSaF/there-will-be-many-more-effective-altruist-billionaires
Tweet, 21:08 UTC · 14 likes
Seems like a credible time to say that I think crypto (-currency, idk about anything else) has nontrivial real economic value that in principle can be separated from the huge amount of speculation
Reply to @moreisdifferent, 23:51 UTC · 2 likes
Dan Elton 🔍 (@moreisdifferent): Fun trivial - tyramine, which is naturally found in cheese,
"is a Schedule I controlled substance, categorized as a hallucinogen, making it illegal to buy, sell, or possess in the state of Florida without a license at any purity level or any form whatsoever.."
That’s one way of making MAOIs marginally safer
Thursday, November 10, 2022
Reply to @QualyThe, 00:01 UTC · 4 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): Sam Bankman-Fried playing the St Petersburg paradox
I didn’t merely chuckle out loud, it was a full on literal lol
Tweet, 05:18 UTC · 6 likes
Just noting that the FDIC exists and for reasons that seem relevant. Deposit insurance is cool because it basically negates the need for it’s own existence via deterrence
Oh ya and I interned there for a year so account for the possibility that I’m a Big Deposit Insurance shill
Saturday, November 12, 2022
Reply to @BenHayum, 02:33 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @BenHayum is no longer available.)
Not sure if this aged poorly or well
Reply to @moskov, 02:39 UTC · 14 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @moskov is no longer available.)
I’ll go with a highly leveraged 4/3 utilitarianism
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 21:06 UTC · 9 likes
Aaron Bergman, March 11, 2022: Holy shit, listening to @SBF_FTX on Cowen's podcast and realized that his story is an *almost-perfect* vignette to illustrate the dangers (and potential) of…
Update: this aged. Idk if poorly or well but it definitely aged
Reply to @peterwildeford, 22:28 UTC · 2 likes
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford): @NunoSempere @RethinkPriors 1.) Too much gets seen by multiple execs
2.) Finance team also sees all the spending
3.) All the spending is exposed to an annual third-party audit that goes directly to the board of directors
4.) Third-party audit is required by CA law so can't get around it
Sure but could a small business like FTX with a fraction of your revenue comply with all that?
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Reply, 07:19 UTC · 2 likes
(Warning, post-melatonin tweet:) Any interest in turning a bunch of functions I’ve written into a package you can download from GitHub? Or anyone else reading this who wants to tbh. I want to and tried for a few hours but managed not to be able to lmao
Thread, continued, 07:19 UTC · 1 like
@frances__lorenz ur another R person
Reply to @QualyThe, 13:58 UTC · 10 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): how many degrees of separation are you from SBF? (1 means you've met him)
0 (am SBF) 🤫
Reply, 18:00 UTC · 2 likes
A perfect track record of correctly judging others’ moral character is not a reasonable, good, or appropriate bar for EA community leadership and I disagree with this take.
FWIW I’ve critiqued Will before on Twitter and the Forum (see below if u want but those aren’t the point)
Monday, November 14, 2022
Reply to @acesounderglass, 00:33 UTC · 27 likes
Elizabeth Van Nostrand (@acesounderglass): What substances besides lead are suspected of causing serious society wide effects? Not just cancer clusters or arsenic makeup but causing serious, systemic issues.
Lithium (“suspected”), polyunsaturated fat, trans fats, +1 to glyphosate and alcohol mentioned by others, plausibly different forms of opioids in a few times and places throughout history. Epstein-Barr virus and H Pylori if organisms count, C02 via global warming,
Thread, continued, 00:35 UTC · 9 likes
pm2.5 via every health metric, mercury, aluminum
Reply to @uneventual, 01:49 UTC · 4 likes
lucy 🐧 (@uneventual): seems like losing less than nine figures this year puts you solidly in the elite of institutional crypto traders lmao
They call me the Buffet of Bethesda, MD😎
Tweet, 02:06 UTC · 2 likes
Standing/treadmill desks are out, bench desks are in 😎
Reply to @StatsLime, 05:10 UTC · 2 likes
Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime): @AaronBergman18 @acesounderglass The overwhelming findings of the literature on this is that polyunsaturated fats are good for health, and people get way too little of them
Wasn’t being specific mostly bc I don’t remember which subtypes are and aren’t suspect. All things considered I think it’s pretty likely that, to condense things way too much, “concentrated seed oils (like canola, soybean)=bad” (for most western adults in 2022)…
Reply to @extremelyn0rmaI, 16:59 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @extremelyn0rmaI is no longer available.)
Nothing necessarily, but it induces weight gain, I think quite reliably. This is true for a bunch of meds, but some people are concerned over trace amounts in the general water supply, which for whatever reason is mostly an issue for lithium specifically
Reply to @guzeyzey, 17:14 UTC
(The tweet being replied to by @guzeyzey is no longer available.)
Using it to mean sleeping around is how I imagine someone just dipping their toe into English slang would use it lol
Thread, continued, 17:14 UTC · 2 likes
Btw “dipping one’s toe” means “have an extramarital affair with”
Reply to @absurdlymax, 17:18 UTC · 3 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @EzraJNewman Oh my god.
be respectful, it’s “oh my god”
Reply to @GergelyOrosz, 17:21 UTC · 6 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @GergelyOrosz is no longer available.)
Good. GitHub should be read only. For everyone, starting now. Retvrn to emailing code files back and forth
Reply to @CharlesD353, 20:16 UTC · 2 likes
Charles🔸 (@CharlesD353): This is a really bad take. If the whole point is to find the best interventions, then figuring out how good an intervention is when you are wildly uncertain about it and potential differences are decision relevant is the obvious thing to do.
(quoting @stephenkb: I would suggest that the deworming debate is a sign someone people have lost sight of their priorities: hard to imagine a less effective or altruistic act than “let’s spend more money to work out just how much better this person performs worm-free”:…)
I kinda agree with a super charitable reading of it though, which is that the deworming debate has is too empirical and ought to better incorporate a prior that getting rid of parasites will increase a person's wellbeing
Reply to @absurdlymax, 20:39 UTC
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): Seems to me the question was never 'is getting rid of parasites good' but is this best on the margin in which case the empirical-ness seems good (I'm not super familiar with the worm wars tho)
Yeah fair enough and for sure empirical studies are important, but I think to a lesser extent than things for which there's a relatively well-specified causal theory of change (say, bednets) and/or the desired outcome is relatively easy to capture (say, all cause mortality)
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Reply to @LeahLibresco, 11:05 UTC · 3 likes
Leah Libresco Sargeant (@LeahLibresco): I’m Catholic, a virtue ethicist, and part of Effective Altruism. AMA
(lagged answers based on demands of my job and my work)
Totally buy the major areas of accordance between the first two bits and EA…
Where (actions, goals, idk) do the conflicts lie? What concrete actions are good from 1-2 of those three perspectives and bad from the other(s)?
Reply to @Forever_Wario, 18:17 UTC · 15 likes
mister employed again (@Forever_Wario): the EA people apparently decided that Concept of Fishing was a worse problem for the world than Malaria
Facts, wild fish slaughter needs way more attention (to improve it, not like scale it up as is)
Reply to @pli_cachete, 18:20 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @pli_cachete is no longer available.)
I agree it’s a big aesthetic success, but it’s an even bigger non-aesthetic success
Thursday, November 17, 2022
Tweet, 00:26 UTC · 20 likes
Hot sauce (& capsaicin-borne spiciness more generally) is super common across cuisines and settings
Why no cold sauce?
Mint (w/ active ingredient menthol) isn’t wildly exotic or expensive…and yet no one puts a dash of mint oil/flakes on their chili/salad/yogurt/whatever ❄️🤔
Thread, continued, 00:47 UTC · 8 likes
Inspired by three drops of this, which hit HARD
Reply to @ESYudkowsky, 19:13 UTC · 2 likes
Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹️ (@ESYudkowsky): ...listen, for $1M I will follow your Twitter account no questions asked. I have a price and it's not that expensive.
(quoting @Mihonarium: @mealreplacer If you could spend $1 million, and it would make @ESYudkowsky follow your twitter account, would you do it?)
My follow costs a mere $10,000 and comes with one positive QT/month for one year
Sale ends soon don’t wait
Reply to @daniel_filan, 22:30 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @daniel_filan is no longer available.)
Not jargon IMO because it means exactly what you’d think (right?)
Reply to @ChanaMessinger, 23:37 UTC · 4 likes
Chana (@ChanaMessinger): Raita?
fs minty dishes exist! But mint is super rarely used as a dial of adjustment or condiment or basic dimension of flavor; tryna say capsaicin is treated kinda like sodium whereas menthol is treated like every other arbitrary flavor chemical, say vanillin
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 23:38 UTC · 4 likes
Aaron Bergman, November 17, 2022: Inspired by three drops of this, which hit HARD
Formal statement of response to allegations of the existence of counterexamples:
Friday, November 18, 2022
Tweet, 21:46 UTC · 6 likes
I hear Twitter might shut down/explode/??? so...
Here's how to save all your tweets locally, with formatting and functional links, in <5 minutes (w/o waiting for Twitter to compile + send your data)
(gif version below but quality on YT is way better)
Reply to @samswoora, 22:09 UTC · 71 likes
Samswara (@samswoora): Do people who smoke weed in the morning just hate their lives? “What a wonderful day on earth, time to get incapacitated”
A less status-coded conjugation of “hate their lives” is “are suffering”
Saturday, November 19, 2022
Reply to @catehall, 03:25 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @catehall is no longer available.)
Maybe this is your point but tbh not certain lol
Reply to @ns_whit, 20:54 UTC · 9 likes
Nick Whitaker 🇺🇸 (@ns_whit): Found this inspiring poster and put it up… what moral leader first said these wise words?
I have a guess
Quote tweet, 20:59 UTC · 3 likes
Good thread
Quoting John Coogan (@johncoogan): Elon-Twitter is a distraction.
FTX is a distraction.
The only story that you should be paying attention to right now is the United States vs China situation.
Here's a primer on what's going on:
Reply to @alth0u, 21:04 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @alth0u is no longer available.)
I’m willing to do my part and chip in one of these to save Twitter
Reply to @davidycli, 22:41 UTC
David Li (@davidycli): Curious - what is the “Asian American” accent?
The same one you just read this tweet in in my head
Reply to @awwstn, 22:55 UTC · 71 likes
austin petersmith (@awwstn): POV
your kid just poured a cup of milk into this floor vent
you can’t seem to find any relevant advice on reddit (?!)
wyd??
Sunday, November 20, 2022
Reply to @MikePFrank, 01:36 UTC · 6 likes
Michael P. Frank 💻🔜♻️ (@MikePFrank): Went on a date with a girl I really like. I dressed nice, gave her an extensive 30 min. lecture on reversible computing, yet I haven't heard from her 🤔 the only thing I can think of is perhaps I did not provide enough information on Landauer’s limit??? Physics friends pls advise
Lecture too short - length matters
Reply to @mattparlmer, 02:48 UTC · 4 likes
mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 (@mattparlmer): When I was 8 I routinely played in abandoned industrial sites with my friends for 6+hrs with no adults and I turned out fine
Safetyism is a ridiculous ideology
(quoting @FreeRangeKids: Mom has 8 yo walk 1/2 mile home. Cops called. One asks: "Would you do this again?" "I said, 'I don't know,'" recalls Wallace. "That's when the cop replied, 'Okay, I'm going to have to arrest you.'" He proceeded to handcuff her in front of the kids.…)
All around my parents were (and continue to be) good parents and good people. But (as just one example) I wasn’t allowed to walk the half mile alone to a nearby park (thru rich suburbs) until at least ~10, maybe 12. I resented it at the time, and continue to think their
Thread, continued, 02:51 UTC · 3 likes
Over-protection was unkind, unfair, and unhelpful. Probably not harmful in the long run either, but certainly directly harmful to my self as a kid
Monday, November 21, 2022
Quote tweet, 18:35 UTC · 11 likes
The single most based Tweet of all time
Quoting roon (@tszzl): this universe was created to maximize the total amount of wild fish suffering. it’s like a hell realm for them. everything else is a sideshow
Thread, continued, 18:35 UTC · 6 likes
Initially captioned “🐠🔥🐠🔥🐠🔥” but then realized this looked like a depiction of fish hell rather than “fire tweet about fish”
Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 10:56 UTC · 7 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): What is the humane way to deal with mice in the house? (Not saying I will, but I'd like to consider kindness here)
If you go with kill traps, snap>poison>glue. Snap are pretty quick and painless, the others not so much
Reply to @pli_cachete, 20:07 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @pli_cachete is no longer available.)
Maybe, but mtg and poker are bounded, well underatood environments without lots of (any?) unknown unknowns, so maybe not (perfect) for dealing with probabilities in the real world
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 21:38 UTC · 2 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): If you know something and you can't express a simple version in <10 tweets, my base rate is that you do not, in fact, know something.
Hit me with some counterexamples
Guys the claim here is about what evidence [able to summarize X to an arbitrary extent] provides about [has good working knowledge and understanding of X], not about whether the summarized version is high fidelity!
Still, main counterexample = “knowing how”/muscle memory
Wednesday, November 23, 2022
Reply to @AskYatharth, 06:21 UTC · 7 likes
yatharth ༺༒༻ (@AskYatharth): [sincere] why take stimulants instead of just nap?
sleepiness/sleep deprivation and subjective motivation, focus, and energy are related but definitely not the same
Reply to @maxhertan, 10:02 UTC · 3 likes
Max Hertan (@maxhertan): Step 2: Supplements
Bryan takes about 25 pills everyday
Uh I think rapamycin is doing a lot of the work here (not that the others are bad or totally inert)
Reply to @jerrrrrrryyyyy, 19:49 UTC · 2 likes
jerry (@jerrrrrrryyyyy): @MattZeitlin MSG
It’s an amino acid (so organic)
Friday, November 25, 2022
Reply to @ESYudkowsky, 11:23 UTC · 3 likes
Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹️ (@ESYudkowsky): I theorize this to be unironically true: Naively trained AIs don't learn to call bullshit on bad questions, because there's few examples of people calling "bullshit" in the text dataset, because Earth's scientific and educational edifice doesn't teach people to call bullshit.
(quoting @ESYudkowsky: 🤔🤔🤔)
does open up a whole new tool for pedagogy tho: “explain why this answer that syntactical pattern matches as good is actually bad”
Saturday, November 26, 2022
Reply to @peligrietzer, 11:20 UTC · 47 likes
Peli Grietzer (@peligrietzer): Are there young people who are now more famous than Kanye and Taylor Swift and I'm too old to know about them, or did pop culture objectively get stuck
I think the former - Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo are both >10 years younger than Taylor, and Kendrick is 10 below Kanye
Reply to @peligrietzer, 18:18 UTC · 3 likes
Peli Grietzer (@peligrietzer): I'm reasonably familiar with them but don't think they're at the same level of stardom!
I think you have to adjust for career length tho - comparing best guess about Billie in ~10 years to Taylor rn
Reply to @MariGO2thepolls, 18:28 UTC · 2 likes
🏳️🌈Mar G-O 🌐🇺🇦 (@MariGO2thepolls): “Get out of my bedroom muh big gov” is not an arg. The state & society at large should absolutely be concerns with what you do in your private space if the thing you’re doing is immoral & harmful. It’s just that having gay sex or abortions or w/e isn’t wrong, like at all
This is all correct but what if you’re optimizing to convince 9 semi-arbitrary elderly lawyers steeped in an aesthetic of hyper-neutrality
Reply to @BasicScienceSav, 21:12 UTC · 2 likes
Savannah Thais 👩🏼💻 (@BasicScienceSav): It happened! I met some guys in a pub last night, turns out they’re in ML. I was like oh cool what’s your research on? And one of them goes ‘there’s no way you’re in ML, what’s a SVM??’ Guy is a living sexist meme 😳
So what _is a SVM
Sunday, November 27, 2022
Reply to @joe_zimmerman, 05:33 UTC · 4 likes
Joe Zimmerman (@joe_zimmerman): Let's say you estimate:
- 20% survival/flourishing
- 79.9% X-risk
- 0.1% S-riskThe headline number should be 0.1%. S-risk is terrifying.
I almost agree (and strongly), but to be pedantic I think under most understandings X-risk and s-risk aren’t mutually exclusive, so a crucial estimate would be P(s-risk|x-risk) and P(x-risk and no s-risk)
Reply to @metakuna, 21:57 UTC · 6 likes
metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna): what's going on in China?
Probably at least several different things - there are quite a few people there
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Reply to @MasterTimBlais, 21:31 UTC · 22 likes
Tim 🙂⏹️🙂 (@MasterTimBlais): i invented a reduced version of difference-of-squares factoring when i was like 12, just noticing that (n+1)(n-1) = n^2 - 1. i was very proud of myself. i called it "tim's law" and put it on the fridge
I’m down to start calling this Tim’s law, hard to beat 2 syllables
Reply to @jacyanthis, 23:31 UTC · 3 likes
Jacy Reese Anthis (@jacyanthis): Asking "Are large language models conscious?" has no more factual an answer than "Do submarines swim?" It just depends on what definition you pick.
Would you say the same replacing “are conscious” with “are sentient” “have subjective experience” and “have qualia”?
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