Aaron Bergman's tweets, September 2022
Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in September 2022 and has not deleted: 240 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's.
This page is one month of the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets, which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: August 2022. Next month: October 2022.
Thursday, September 1, 2022
Reply to @mattyglesias, 02:01 UTC · 5 likes
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias): Pro Choice & Pro Fish
(quoting @MarkBegich: Mary Peltola's victory is a clear message from AK voters that they will not compromise their values or their rights at the ballot box. Mary is a pro-choice, pro-fish, common sense leader who knows what it takes to protect and create AK jobs. On to November!)
True pro-fishers signal their pro-fishiness by donating to the Fish Welfare Initiative https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/donate
Reply to @QualyThe, 23:22 UTC · 5 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): remember how the entire last chapter of Elephant in the Brain talks about how you shouldn't accuse individuals of signalling because that isn't the point of the concept and it's counterproductive and you can't know any one individual's motivations 😇😇
The book also never makes a normative case against signalling! It’s not even something to be “accused” of (necessarily)! People read that part *in* to the book
Friday, September 2, 2022
Reply to @QualyThe, 00:38 UTC · 1 like
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): I have never seen anyone say 'you're signalling' in a neutral or positive connotation, though they love to use this as a shield when called out
Admittedly it naturally lends itself to being used as a critique, but that’s an outcome of human psych+culture, not baked into the meaning of the word. And I’ve definitely seen it used neutrally! Like signalling is the best explanation of why I went to college…
Thread, continued, 00:42 UTC · 1 like
Also, often a failure to distinguish between true and misleading signals. I think a bunch of my tweets are virtue signals to some degree, but I also hope they’re basically accurate ones!
Often “signal” is used as shorthand for “false or misleading signal” but doesn’t need to be
Quote tweet, 00:44 UTC · 4 likes
This tweet is a signal of a bunch of things, but on the object level it’s also a sincere (partial) defense of signaling
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @QualyThe Also, often a failure to distinguish between true and misleading signals. I think a bunch of my tweets are virtue signals to some degree, but I also hope they’re basically accurate ones!
Often “signal” is used as shorthand for “false or misleading signal” but doesn’t need to be
Thread, continued, 00:45 UTC · 4 likes
Nothing like getting into the messy nexus of psych and epistemology with a sentient lightbulb
Thread, continued, 00:56 UTC · 3 likes
The lightbulb has spoken
Reply to @QualyThe, 01:01 UTC · 1 like
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): in EA we don't say I love you, we say "this sounds plausibly right to me" and I think that's beautiful
“Don’t use vague probabilities, put a number on it!”
“Yeah seems plausible”
Tweet, 04:52 UTC · 14 likes
Guess I'm an influencer on Google Maps now
Thread, continued, 04:52 UTC · 1 like
Fair warning for anyone looking for a convenience store in Bethesda, MD
100% keeping the "1 review" thing in the picture on purpose btw - Ive got quirks but Google Maps reviews isn't one of them https://goo.gl/maps/eTyDnR3VYY2kn3Uo7
Thread, continued, 04:53 UTC · 4 likes
Oh man if anyone has access to the list of most-read reviews that would be a hell of a Twitter thread
Reply to @FrostedSapling, 11:54 UTC
Ivan 🔸 (@FrostedSapling): @AaronBergman18 As someone who used to work for CVS (pharmacy) it’s genuinely awful what they have done to the front store. Stores routinely have 1 employee working the entire front, with the addition of self checkout. They’re technically supposed to just assist customers with self checkout but
Yeah that was exactly it! Figured maybe management would have someone look at reviews, might see this
Tweet, 20:56 UTC · 2 likes
Well now I have to finish the post
Reply to @polisisti, 22:29 UTC · 8 likes
Alessandro (@polisisti): I wonder if women realize what outrageously horny ads Twitter shows to men
Do women get their own versions of horny ads???
I guess I’m not considered in the horny subdemographic lol
The two ads near this post:
Reply, 23:45 UTC · 3 likes
oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle): Jesus Aaron at least mark that crypto ad as nsfw, I have children in the house
Saturday, September 3, 2022
Tweet, 00:08 UTC · 59 likes
Dating doc discourse has me wondering whether just subsidizing a dating app whose only goal is to maximizing the number of happy relationships formed (ie no profit motive like Hinge and Tinder to keep people swiping) would be competitive with the GiveWell portfolio
Thread, continued, 00:08 UTC · 9 likes
Im not kidding!
It seems like there’s a massive coordination or market failure going on rn, in that I can’t pay e.g., $20 per year to join a Hinge alternative with this goal and near-universal uptake
Thread, continued, 00:08 UTC · 4 likes
And in both hedonic and life satisfaction terms it seems like a pretty big win if this kind of thing could do it’s job
Thread, continued, 00:08 UTC · 7 likes
Oh ya here’s my 16 character dating doc:
“22M str8 monog DC”
it’s a minimal viable product ok, it will scale with time
Reply to @tszzl, 03:13 UTC · 3 likes
roon (@tszzl): you just can’t be like “i am a special and strange person, with a niche brain type, and this lowest common denominator attractive person on the app has a decent chance of being a good match for me” it’s not coherent
Room just destroyed like $600M in dating app valuations
Tweet, 08:17 UTC · 15 likes
Wild rabbit hole just now after finding out gmail saved all the school essays and stuff I emailed starting in 2010 (so 10 y/o, in fourth grade)
Proud to report that I had correct opinions even at 11!
Thread, continued, 08:22 UTC · 5 likes
Don't want to let myself off too easy though - I failed to predict the solar pricing decline coming over the next decade, and nuclear's dual use potential didn't even cross my mind :/
Reply to @happy_at_home_, 11:26 UTC · 2 likes
Don’t be a mean person (@happy_at_home_): Why are there not plus-sized male models?
My guess is the least conventionally attractive model of either sex will be the person who is just barely not offputting to say 90% of potential customers, and this is less constraining for women because men (of whom most are straight) tend to have less picky sexual preferences
Reply, 20:16 UTC · 1 like
Eh I think it makes a good philosophical case for longtermism per se but have some substantial disagreements with the rest. One big one is failure to discuss or consider the Very Repugnant Conclusion. I wouldn’t recommend it as a standalone “all things considered” take
Reply to @robertzzk, 20:35 UTC · 2 likes
Rob K (@robertzzk): @peterwildeford ergo my position is the tough stance that VNM utility theory is the incorrect approach to mathematically modeling (long term and in the full limit) human preferences/utility/values by invalid fiat - due to bad/poor axiomatic asssumptions. There’s a better theory.
@MatthewAdelste1 and I have a whole discourse on this!
I argue that non-offsetability is (counterintuitively) consistent with total utilitarianism https://www.aaronbergman.net/p/my-case-for-suffering-leaning-ethics
Matt’s response: https://benthams.substack.com/p/contra-bergman-on-suffering-focused
And my comment with his response there below
Reply to @metakuna, 20:37 UTC · 6 likes
metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna): knowledge is knowing Python, wisdom is using Excel 😌
Enlightenment is closing both and using R
Thread, continued, 20:38 UTC · 2 likes
Not that you can “close” python lol
Reply to @provinghuman, 20:50 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @provinghuman is no longer available.)
Barely hyperbole haha. I tried to “learn python” at one point. Have something called Anaconda and maybe Spyder (?) and I think a couple others I’m forgetting on my computer Absolutely zero idea what they do or how to use them
Tweet, 22:26 UTC · 5 likes
Bored around hour 2 in ER waiting room (nw I’m good 👍), gonna make a thread with some relevant takes
(1/
Thread, continued, 22:26 UTC · 4 likes
It’s called the “emergency room” but in practice it’s for any issue that’s both too urgent to wait 2+ weeks to see a normal doctor and may need something that an urgent care center can’t provide
Tweet, 22:26 UTC · 1 like
Interlude: excuse my lack of eloquence; C02 almost certainly over 1000 [whatever normal unit is] and wouldnt be surprised if >2000. No k/n95s on offer either 🙃.
Thread, continued, 22:26 UTC · 1 like
Another interlude: diabetic blood sugar issue woman next to me just decided wait not worth it, gets up and (I assume) leaves with bf
Thread, continued, 22:26 UTC · 1 like
To be clear, all this is kinda annoying to me but really no huge deal; I don’t have an employer demanding my time, am not acutely suffering, not particularly hungry or anything, and have an iPhone with data, earbuds, and a water bottle
But that’s a lot to satisfy!
Thread, continued, 22:26 UTC · 2 likes
Also, speaking as someone who by default wears tank tops year-round because I ~always get hot indoors, it’s pretty damn cold in here. Maybe 58F?
Everyone else looks cold despite most wearing pants and long sleeves. At least I didn’t wear a tank
Reply to @frances__lorenz, 23:05 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)
Omg - need to save phone battery now but I legit would be interested to see and of ur projects
Sunday, September 4, 2022
Tweet, 06:44 UTC · 4 likes
Don’t wanna be a self-checkout noob and follow instructions but also don’t wanna steal? N=1 big grocery store, but if you press “forgot my [bonus/rewards] card,” it just pretends like you actually put in a phone number associated with a rewards card
Reply, 07:18 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to is no longer available.)
Ugh should I try meditation again? 1 meditation minute=2 treadmill minutes~=20 normal minutes
Reply, 14:51 UTC · 11 likes
(The tweet being replied to is no longer available.)
Sorry guys the incentives have spoken, looks like http://aaronbergman.net is switching teams
Tweet, 15:32 UTC · 4 likes
My most unhinged business idea is to make a basic email app with a similar feel as Outlook but a bit sleeker and less clunky, call it Prognosis, and hope people download just because they like the pun
Quote tweet, 20:11 UTC · 4 likes
🙈
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @benedictevans Sorry guys the incentives have spoken, looks like http://aaronbergman.net is switching teams
Reply, 20:21 UTC · 2 likes
Tweet, 23:03 UTC · 3 likes
Did the first white people to try soy sauce say like “holy shit we’ve unlocked a secret flavor” or was it somehow nbd
Reply to @DevonGeo, 23:15 UTC · 2 likes
Devon Piernot (@DevonGeo): I made this map. Really chuffed to see it shared on the interwebs after all these years.
Presumably it is a good thing to chuf?
Monday, September 5, 2022
Reply, 03:35 UTC · 2 likes
I'm not certain of this, but I think the operation [infinity] x number isn't defined unless you specify further. Like the operation "times" as used in common language only (reliably) works between two real numbers or a real number and a unit
Thread, continued, 03:36 UTC · 2 likes
So the rigorous answer is "neither true nor false" in the same way that "what's the least common denominator of 6 and an apple?" has no correct answer (not even "there is none")
Reply to @peterwildeford, 03:57 UTC · 2 likes
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford): Thank you @US_FDA for keeping us safe from scary soymilks that pretend to be milk!
Consumers get so confused and need protection (even though less than 10% of survey respondents think soymilk contains dairy).
The dairy industry needs all the gov handouts they can get!
(quoting @ReasonFdn: "The Food and Drug Administration is likely to move ahead with wrongheaded and unconstitutional plans to prohibit producers of non-dairy milks—including almond milk and soy milk—from using the term 'milk' to describe their milks." — @baylenlinnekin…)
That's gotta be one of the highest % corrects on a factual question on a public poll out there! Like 80% sure that >10% would say dinosaurs and humans lived at the same time
Reply to @ChanaMessinger, 10:24 UTC · 1 like
Chana (@ChanaMessinger): https://x.com/karnagraha/status/1566487103055269891?t=YcA-tV20cLJttfqlWbaLXw&s=19
https://x.com/karnagraha/status/1566487103055269891?s=21&t=dhMOtHIEuKnplPbIA-Vwhg
Tweet, 11:17 UTC · 6 likes
Has anyone (philosopher most likely?) argued that the whole “natural numbers sum to -1/12” thing is strong evidence that something is dramatically messed up about the universe, or any other radical claim in epistemology/metaphysics?
https://plus.maths.org/content/infinity-or-just-112
…
Thread, continued, 11:17 UTC
Quantum mechanics has nothing on this in terms of weirdness and intuitive implausibility.
It’s like if we discovered in 1978 that the number line stops at 6^9853+1, or that the scripture of some small offshoot of Zoroastrianism is literally and entirely correct
Thread, continued, 11:17 UTC · 2 likes
I just really don’t think they should sum to -1/12 ☹️
Seems wrong
Reply to @mealreplacer, 18:38 UTC · 18 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
This cannot go on. In just 10,000 years, Julian’s Blog would have 10 subscribers for every electron in the universe
Tuesday, September 6, 2022
Tweet, 00:35 UTC · 1 like
If forced to choose between these options, would you prefer that I tweet 10% more often or 10% less often?
Thread, continued, 00:40 UTC · 1 like
Gonna take this down once results become clear lol
Reply to @absurdlymax, 01:13 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 You should only do that if 10% less wins
Should I take down the above poll…
Reply to @absurdlymax, 02:03 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): I feel like I remember SBF saying he'd buy someone a car cause of a Twitter interaction. Did he do this? Seems weird since he like sleeps on a beanbag or something (I assumed so he could donate more)?
Am I mixing things up?
I think he keeps 1% of wealth, which is still $100M of $10B. I lowkey think it might be a non crazy idea to convince him to make it like 99.99% above $10M or something like that.
Reply to @F_McCullough, 02:15 UTC · 6 likes
Fergus (@F_McCullough): Just published an updated version of my blogpost on alcohol. (And if anything, my views have hardened!)
https://www.thefitzwilliam.com/p/against-alcohol
I personally actively dislike alcohol as a drug, but my prior on “a behavior/nutrient that was done/consumed (I assume?) with some frequency across cultures even before agriculture has at least one hidden important function” is pretty high
…
Thread, continued, 02:15 UTC · 1 like
@AndyMasley can also tell me why I’m wrong
Quote tweet, 02:35 UTC · 1 like
Should probably lie low after overconfidently asserting that the universe is “messed up” because of (wrong) math, but…
All I ask is that we keep the history of well-intentioned public health campaigns against saturated fat in mind before hyper-empirical wrt alcohol
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @F_McCullough I personally actively dislike alcohol as a drug, but my prior on “a behavior/nutrient that was done/consumed (I assume?) with some frequency across cultures even before agriculture has at least one hidden important function” is pretty high
…
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 07:38 UTC · 2 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 6, 2022: Should I take down the above poll…
Current results are extremely unhelpful
Thread, continued, 16:45 UTC · 2 likes
Ok guess I’m leaving it up. Blame it on the voters
Tweet, 16:54 UTC · 19 likes
Extremely chuffed to announce that three birds have decided to move in to a flowerpot in my backyard
Thread, continued, 16:54 UTC · 3 likes
Don’t wanna be too presumptuous or socially conservative but I’m gonna assume that’s two kids and their mom
Thread, continued, 16:54 UTC · 1 like
Always be learning new vocabulary🧠👍
Reply to @ChanaMessinger, 16:55 UTC · 1 like
Chana (@ChanaMessinger): Is there self-cringe more acute than finding your 2014 unpublished blog post about how amazing EA is and how it addresses all your moral concerns and awakens your inner Gryffindor?
Council, I submit not.
Reply to @RafaRuizdeLira, 19:58 UTC · 3 likes
Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 (@RafaRuizdeLira): @AaronBergman18 What kind of bird is it? It's beautiful ❤️
Idk, I asked them but they didn’t respond
Reply to @pleasure_engine, 22:47 UTC · 1 like
Pleasure Engineer (@pleasure_engine): @RafaRuizdeLira @AaronBergman18 Mourning Dove according to Cornell's Merlin App
Central example of a bird tbh. Like finding out a mystery fruit is an apple
Wednesday, September 7, 2022
Reply to @mealreplacer, 01:02 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
My goal is to Tweet something earnest that sounds batshit insane even to EA hears but then @StefanFSchubert comments smth like “upon a bit of inspection I believe this hypothesis deserves more consideration than it may first appear”
Tweet, 01:36 UTC · 4 likes
I seriously think someone (in fact, someone reading this if they wanted to) could make big tech-level money by getting really good at making custom shortcuts and Automator scripts for clients on iOS.
Plus you could live wherever, donate 75% of your income, be own boss, etc.
Thread, continued, 01:36 UTC · 3 likes
Quick Google doesn’t turn up anyone advertising this, just like DIY YouTube tutorials.
Usually when there are YouTube tutorials for some technical hard skill, you can hire someone (like an electrician idk) to do the thing, just a thought
Reply, 03:53 UTC · 1 like
Uh I don't really know but I don't think so - Apple has a whole app called "automator" with a user interface, not just weird black box for text. Looks like this
Reply to @Superlinear_, 07:49 UTC · 2 likes
Superlinear - X-Risk Prizes (@Superlinear_): Harry Truman once said: "It's amazing what you can accomplish if you don't care who gets the credit."
The $100,000 Truman Prize awards EAs with $5-10k for declining credit in ways that can't be publicized directly, and where their work is more impactful because of that.
Ay this is cool
Thursday, September 8, 2022
Reply to @mealreplacer, 10:34 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
Reads like a madlib lmao
Next: “this group of [sock]-headed altruists are determined to make the world [slimier]”
Tweet, 21:40 UTC · 3 likes
There’s definitely a blog post and maybe a book to be written about the phrase “hot take” as a linguistic and cultural phenomenon
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 21:46 UTC · 2 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 6, 2022: Always be learning new vocabulary🧠👍
Update: birds still birdin’
Reply to @AndyMasley, 22:49 UTC · 2 likes
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley):
I’d like to volunteer as tribute to represent the non-drinking pro-alcohol EA coalition
Friday, September 9, 2022
Reply to @daniel_271828, 08:14 UTC · 2 likes
zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828): Hot take, but I don't think the "$3,000 to save a life" meme makes much sense. If we're talking about how much to save a life in expectation, then it's MUCH less (e.g., via LTFF). If it's how much to be confident you've actually counterfactually saved a life, then it's MUCH more.
“Save a life” means “preventing a death,” no? Agree longtermist interventions do this, but then we’re talking about preventing some single digit billions of deaths, not like 10^almostinfinity. Is that still what you@had in mind
Saturday, September 10, 2022
Reply to @polisisti, 04:32 UTC · 3 likes
Alessandro (@polisisti): @BecomingCritter put chocolate chips and 100%-peanut butter in a bowl
microwave for 45 seconds
stir
consume
people think there are better foods than this but they're wrong
Spend money to save time (by buying Reese’s instead)
Reply to @mattyglesias, 09:28 UTC · 3 likes
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias): Sex clubs seem like a pretty good place to do HIV screenings.
(quoting @Dylan_Housman: Meet Joe Biden's monkeypox czar: a "progressive, radical gay" doctor who performs HIV screenings in sex clubs and gives meningitis shots in drag. Now he's in the White House https://dailycaller.com/2022/09/08/joe-biden-monkeypox-coordinator-demetre-daskalakis-white-house/)
This unironically makes him sound like a great man for the job
Reply to @maddiehalla, 12:53 UTC · 41 likes
Maddie Hall (@maddiehalla): Yesterday was a historic day in plant biotech: a purple tomato engineered with high antioxidants was approved by @USDA @BigPurpleTomato helps prevent cardiovascular disease and fight cancer in humans.
This approval under new regulation ushers in a new era for plant synbio!
Wait haven’t there been like a bunch of trials of high dose antioxidant supplements that showed null results? Of course engineering them in is different than like isolated vitamin c or whatever but even still I’m very skeptical these provide a real health benefit
Reply, 20:30 UTC · 2 likes
Sure but these foods also have a million other things that make them different from their alternatives. Adding a gene to pump out extra beta carotene or something seems more like taking a supplement than it does switching from naturally low BC food to naturally high
Reply to @QualyThe, 21:10 UTC · 2 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): Give a man a fish, he causes suffering for a day. Teach a man to fish, he causes suffering for the rest of his life 😌
What if he keeps it as a pet
Reply to @absurdlymax, 23:43 UTC · 3 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @Estimatrix @AaronBergman18
Hey it was a GOOD QUESTION. I will die on this hill
Reply, 23:45 UTC · 4 likes
fwiw butter does not need to be refrigerated. It will make spreading it much easier, removing any apparent need for such a device
Sunday, September 11, 2022
Reply to @absurdlymax, 00:28 UTC · 1 like
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 @Estimatrix No I think it was too
Ya ik haha
Tweet, 07:07 UTC · 2 likes
Found some old textbooks etc lying around on my computer. I know at least a couple followers like self-study math for fun, so have at it! (List in the tweet below)
http://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1bLeZKovT92puvHk1KyHrYDbn3DFCuDt3?usp=sharing
Reply to @floresophize, 10:29 UTC · 4 likes
Carolina Flores (@floresophize): No one:
Philosophers:
And the cross product of each combination ofc
Reply to @panickssery, 20:38 UTC · 10 likes
Arjun Panickssery (@panickssery): I often hear people say they increase their efficiency/impact by trading time for money, e.g. valuing their time at $35/hr and booking an Uber for $15 to save 30 minutes of walking as a result
But is this compatible with your marginal time value in most models of productivity?
Yeah I think this meme is overdone in rationalist spheres. IMO it’s most useful when applied on a case by case basis. Like if I’m in the middle of something important that I’m making fast progress on but have to drive somewhere rn, it prob makes sense to get an Uber instead …
Thread, continued, 20:41 UTC · 6 likes
But plenty of the time I think I can intuit that I wouldn’t really get much more done this way,
and then won’t get the Uber
Monday, September 12, 2022
Tweet, 03:48 UTC · 4 likes
Controversial opinion apparently but IMO the *first-order* expected effects of taking a class in almost anything are positive (w/ exceptions ofc), so any decent case against the humanities has to argue that the alternate use of college students’ time would on avg be even better
Thread, continued, 03:48 UTC · 3 likes
I think some anti-humanities sentiment comes from implicitly thinking of Marxist Gender Theory as representative, rather than intro to philosophy, English lit, or History of [Whatever]
Reply to @AndyMasley, 04:00 UTC · 1 like
Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @AaronBergman18 A surprising number of people hear I studied philosophy and immediately jump to "Oh you just spent 4 years sitting in a circle talking about your feelings"
Wait so you didn’t?
Reply to @mualphaxi, 04:07 UTC · 4 likes
Maxwell Meyer (@mualphaxi): Just for comparison, here is the Emirates premium economy cabin versus its American competitors.
I mean, come on!
Seems like the only real difference is color?
Reply to @mualphaxi, 05:42 UTC · 2 likes
Maxwell Meyer (@mualphaxi): I like how a lot of people liked the first tweet in this thread and then were shocked when I bring up airline attendant appearance, which is a top issue for quality of travel. They thought I was going to talk about some esoteric regulation like a YIMBY.
(quoting @mualphaxi: AVIATION THREAD: the US should allow select foreign airlines “cabotage rights” i.e. the right to operate domestic routes in the US. Imagine how great air travel would be if Emirates, Etihad, Singapore, Qatar, etc were allowed to compete here. Take a journey with me...)
A top issue according to who lol
Reply to @razibkhan, 05:45 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @razibkhan is no longer available.)
I only interact with those who reach summa
Thread, continued, 05:46 UTC · 7 likes
I’d add that even I did not reach this threshold, thereby barring me eternally from introspection
Reply to @SievaKozinsky, 05:48 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @SievaKozinsky is no longer available.)
Markets may not be perfectly efficient, but they’re way too efficient for this to be good advice
Tuesday, September 13, 2022
Quote tweet, 00:45 UTC · 5 likes
In high school (before encountering the EA extended universe), I typed “theatlantic .com” into my phone browser often enough that it remains muscle memory and I still occasionally go to the site by accident thanks to this well-trained Pavlovian instinct
Good job @TheAtlantic
Quoting 🏳️🌈Mar G-O 🌐🇺🇦 (@MariGO2thepolls): The Atlantic is good, actually
Reply to @LinchZhang, 03:47 UTC · 2 likes
Linch (@LinchZhang): The problem with social media censorship
If anyone should be censored it’s Kant
Reply to @luke_metro, 03:51 UTC · 5 likes
Luke Metro (@luke_metro): There are theee ways to become a 10x engineer
- Microdosing LSD
- Microdosing Adderall
- Microdosing Estrogen
In all seriousness do not microdose adderall. It at least *might* cause extremely unpleasant dopamine receptor hypersensitization
Reply to @GPTJustin, 04:36 UTC · 2 likes
Justin Strong (@GPTJustin): Why would having sensitive dopamine receptors be bad? Wouldn’t it feel good?
I honestly don't know, but have seen reports of it feeling like being perpetually on edge and out of breath. Tbh it could be an entirely different mechanism, I don't even know why that's the default/favored one
Reply to @focusfronting, 05:54 UTC · 266 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @focusfronting is no longer available.)
Yup lol. I majored in math, have done several *statistical* programming-intensive jobs, find accessible+theoretical cs super interesting, am the default IT person for my family, etc....and have absolutely zero idea how github works or how to use it. And tf is a virtual machine?
Thread, continued, 06:00 UTC · 360 likes
What's a kernel? What is the difference between command line, terminal, bash, zsh, and ssh? Who is pip and why is he installing my things? Wtf is a modem or router? Is ethernet : internet as wario : mario? Why can't I just download the full html of a website as a text file?
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 06:05 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
Counterpoint: this one extremely funny
Reply, 06:06 UTC · 2 likes
Like yes 30 year old Indian man, I'm sure you are also a young Asian women in the American southwest
Reply to @DanCrossNYC, 19:37 UTC · 13 likes
Dan @cross@discuss.systems (@DanCrossNYC): You were a math major! You know what a kernel is. Just crack open that linear algebra book. RELIVE THE GOOD YEARS!
Nah abstract algebra was my lowest grade in all 17 years of education 💀
Quote tweet, 20:04 UTC · 11 likes
I would actually super appreciate any mutuals sending me any resource that (1) is audio or can be turned into audio and (2) seems at least as valuable to you per minute as a random minute of a random 80k podcast episode (or just “very valuable”)
Quoting Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): Would love it if there were more of a norm for people to write up their process for consuming information. Could find especially knowledgeable people and just mimic their process.
Thread, continued, 20:04 UTC · 4 likes
Nbd if it’s not my favorite - all I’m looking for is higher signal:noise ratio than my current podcast feed!
Reply, 20:11 UTC · 3 likes
Reply to @mealreplacer, 20:12 UTC · 8 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
But was he good at theology?
Thread, continued, 20:13 UTC · 25 likes
Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 22:34 UTC · 2 likes
Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver): Hell yeah. She's awesome!👊
Thanks! Yeah I listened to a few episodes a while back and for whatever reason didn’t keep with it, but I’ll prob try again :)
Reply to @PeterJAngel, 22:35 UTC · 2 likes
Peter🧅📈 (@PeterJAngel): Want to second this - probable causation is quite good. The host, Jennifer Doleac, has been on 80,000 hours! https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/jennifer-doleac-reforming-police-preventing-crime/
I think I remember them discussing streetlights here. Now whenever I see a dim-ass streetlight (all of them) I shake my head ruefully
Wednesday, September 14, 2022
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 03:45 UTC · 4 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 13, 2022: What's a kernel? What is the difference between command line, terminal, bash, zsh, and ssh? Who is pip and why is he installing my things? Wtf is a modem or…
Why is this one of my most liked Tweets? Where are my earbuds? Will humanity ever uncover the nature of consciousness?
Reply to @mealreplacer, 12:18 UTC · 3 likes
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Wait fr?
Reply to @mealreplacer, 12:18 UTC · 6 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
If you can’t make this Tweet go viral you should be fired immediately
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 15:50 UTC · 8 likes
Aaron Bergman, September 14, 2022: Wait fr?
I’m traumatized by finding out randos at EA global are like next in line to be Secretary of State or chessboxing world champion
Reply, 16:03 UTC · 15 likes
(The tweet being replied to is no longer available.)
FYI there is a phone number and email listed that might want to hear all your thoughts
Quote tweet, 20:22 UTC · 1 like
Getting bariatric surgery and a year’s supply of semaglitude should be like 30% harder than getting a COVID shot, tops
Quoting Laura McGann (@lkmcgann): Prevailing attitudes toward bariatric surgery are overwhelmingly negative -- and they seem to be contributing to the very low use of a technique that is our best tool at fighting obesity. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamasurgery/fullarticle/2717959
Reply to @mealreplacer, 21:46 UTC · 4 likes
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Wait fr?
Thursday, September 15, 2022
Reply to @jacyanthis, 10:17 UTC
Jacy Reese Anthis (@jacyanthis): Glad you're thinking critically about this. On your third point, I don't think that sort of option value argument holds up under scrutiny, for reasons discussed here (https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/blog/the-future-might-not-be-so-great#what-does-the-ev-need-to-be-to-prioritize-extinction-risks? ; can find in page "option value"). Curious what you think.
These considerations are so important, deserve way more attention than “maybe future ppl don’t matter” bs.
The reason I think I fall on the “extinction risk reduction net good” is that, in practice, reducing extinction (and x-risk generally, tho less certain)…
Thread, continued, 10:20 UTC
Reduces chance of societal collapse (and hence likely EA collapse) by an even greater magnitude, or in the case of AI hand things off to another agent with likely nothing resembling true moral values
I think you commented before, but I mostly developed this opinion… Wii
Thread, continued, 10:21 UTC · 1 like
(Wii? Lol idk how that got there)
…writing part of this piece https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eeDsHDoM9De4iGGLw/questioning-the-value-of-extinction-risk-reduction-1
Reply to @LahadtheGhost, 18:55 UTC · 2 likes
Bor (@LahadtheGhost): @AaronBergman18 In podcasts I find @dwarkesh_sp 's Lunar Society podcast to be similar in value/minute to 80k.
Agree, but the problem is he’s too productive so I have a bunch of episodes to catch up on
Reply to @hyperdiscogirl, 19:59 UTC · 2 likes
hyper(bolic) disco(unting) girl in the bay (@hyperdiscogirl): @doxometrist @proetrie > with 50/50 gender ratios
Legend has it there was once a female at a LW meetup. This has not been confirmed
Friday, September 16, 2022
Tweet, 03:21 UTC · 3 likes
Pretty curious what actual information is in these "private" folders embedded (idk better term) in my iPhone photos
Reply to @focusfronting, 08:52 UTC · 6 likes
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Agree, and the weird thing is that nonconsentual corporal punishment for *adults* (in the US at least) is ~nonexistent, with the death penalty and its associated suffering the only exception I can think of. Maybe “coach ‘forces’ player to run laps” is a sort of counterexample tho
Reply to @mattyglesias, 10:29 UTC · 2 likes
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias): The libs do not actually seem that owned.
Was the goal to show that libs secretly dislike Mexicans? Because afaict the standard “immigrants good” thing is mostly genuine and non-performative. Like I really would be more than fine with (yes, “illegal”) Mexican immigrants moving nearby me
Reply to @peterwildeford, 19:18 UTC · 4 likes
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford): Are you not going to the "very online" meetup? I'm not going to be available in the evenings so I was kinda hoping people would go to that meetup but if people aren't going to be there I will also avoid going to that and do other things instead!
Just signed up. Cmon guys get on it!
Reply to @RafaRuizdeLira, 20:17 UTC · 6 likes
Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 (@RafaRuizdeLira): Some people were saying on Twitter that they lean towards preference utilitarianism rather than hedonistic.
Here are some clear examples of why I find preference utilitarianism implausible.
tbh I find preference utilitarianism totally implausible and am surprised how many EAs say they endorse it, even in part
Reply to @peligrietzer, 21:30 UTC · 9 likes
Peli Grietzer (@peligrietzer): Did Scott Alexander ever discuss how getting exposed as moderately NRx-sympathetic and scientific-racism sympathetic didn't actually get him cancelled at all even though he was sure it would?
I think I reject both premises here
Saturday, September 17, 2022
Reply to @juan_cambeiro, 01:52 UTC · 16 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @juan_cambeiro is no longer available.)
She updated in the wrong direction
(gif, plays on X)
Tweet, 02:11 UTC · 6 likes
Dear TPOT ppl (is it an acronym?? for what??),
Most criticism of your community will be fundamentally mistaken
Most of the remainder will essentially point out various true bad things that you already recognize and understand as a cost you’re willing to pay for smth good
(1/2)
Thread, continued, 02:11 UTC · 4 likes
Don’t let the shitty/naive critiques crowd out those that pattern-match as “constructive criticism from within”
Sincerely,
[well I wanted to write “EA Twitter” but tbh I don’t speak for everyone so instead…]
Aaron
(2/2)
Reply to @jmrphy, 02:12 UTC · 1 like
Justin Murphy (@jmrphy): If you're a man over 30 and you have time to maintain more than 5 friendships—I mean real friendships—you're either a loser, groomer, or gay.
Notruescotsman.jpg
Reply to @absurdlymax, 07:40 UTC · 3 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 Tpot stands for 'this part of twitter', it took me like 8 months to find that out :)
Ay thanks! I can now cease learning new information until the end of time
Reply to @mattyglesias, 22:20 UTC · 3 likes
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias): At the end of the day, Ron DeSantis is much too short to be president and that’s all there is to it.
This tweet is perfectly optimized to clash my intuitions. Desantis=bad, overcoming semiconscious bias=good, probably correct but also serving as a mechanism to create the social reality it is explicitly only observing
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 22:28 UTC · 7 likes
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Should “we” (maybe me but ideally someone with more cred) make a “serious” (roughly “similar content expectations to Forum comment section and similar topic expectations to Forum posts” maybe) EA Twitter community? As complement to the existing one, everyone welcome etc.
Thread, continued, 22:29 UTC · 3 likes
Like I’ve definitely posted “serious” things there that are a bit too underdeveloped or short for the forum, and also memes. These could wind up in separate places!
Reply to @Aella_Girl, 23:12 UTC · 19 likes
Aella (@Aella_Girl): this seems fine to me? It's the teacher's body, let them do what they want with it. i kinda feel like you being weirded out is your business.
(quoting @reduxx: BREAKING: Oakville Trafalgar High School has come out in defense of a male teacher who has been wearing a massive prosthetic bust, complete with protruding nipples, to class. In an email sent to parents, the school says "gender identity" is protected.…)
Rare case I’m more conservative than Aella; I think the norm “permit employees to do a public-facing job with literally any physical object attached to them” is not a good principle
Thread, continued, 23:17 UTC · 1 like
And this is in contrast to things like “anyone can have any hairstyle” or “anyone can use reasonable ability accommodations like a wheelchair or hearing aid” which I definitely do support
Tweet, 23:36 UTC · 8 likes
I mostly regret having spent 7 years studying Spanish because I so rarely use it
But being able to respond “sí, está bien” three times a year to some poor Uber Eats driver who thought s/he got a someone legit fluente en español makes it all worthwhile
Sunday, September 18, 2022
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 01:03 UTC · 2 likes
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Eh 1,000 members seems pretty solid to me
Reply to @QualyThe, 01:55 UTC · 3 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): @AaronBergman18 @EzraJNewman many ills befall he who forgets the 1% rule
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1%25_rule
Fr though good point but I'd guess it's more like 5% in this case. And it's not a zero-sum split (over users at least) - I for one would stay in and post in both. It might not even be zero-sum over posts, if people become more inclined to post post-schism
Reply, 03:19 UTC · 1 like
Ok so I’m not insane for thinking that she/they is grammatically different from he/him and she/her. The parallel version would be “she/them” but I’ve never seen this
she/they afaict just doesn’t make sense as an actual pronoun pair (cool to use it as a quirkiness signal tho👍)
Reply to @pli_cachete, 03:20 UTC · 4 likes
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Rip Juice
Reply to @pli_cachete, 03:21 UTC · 4 likes
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The higher signal/noise version of this is “post on repeat” or “post top songs of 2021”
Thread, continued, 03:25 UTC · 3 likes
Counterpoint: if you listen to the same lofi working music over and over (I don’t recognize any of these titles or artists)
Reply to @Noahpinion, 10:22 UTC · 2 likes
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion): I still don't get the meme that "2+2=4" is racist. Is there some theory that arithmetic is a barrier to dismantling white supremacy?
To be fair, it’s the only term they put in quotes, so seems to refer to the use of the phrase as a rhetorical device rather than the underlying referent. But ya still wild tho
Reply, 20:13 UTC · 2 likes
Yesterday I wrote a function in R called “center_title” so I would never have to do any “theme(element.text.something=.5) bullshit ever again in ggplot. I think that puts me on the left
Tweet, 22:29 UTC · 5 likes
Introvert networking advice: go on LinkedIn and try to customize your url
Odds are, a bunch of variations of your name like “linkedin .com/in/jonsmith” or “…/in/smithjon” are unavailable.
This means that someone else *with your very name* has them!…
Thread, continued, 22:29 UTC · 3 likes
Paste those urls into another tab and, if nominative determinism has even a grain of truth, they’ll have some relevant career experience or interests.
Now ask to connect! Bonus points for candidly explaining the whole thing in your invite message
Reply to @pli_cachete, 22:45 UTC · 4 likes
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Idk I think there’s a chance public high schools would get taxes broadly right
Reply to @PradyuPrasad, 22:49 UTC · 3 likes
Pradyumna 🇸🇬 (@PradyuPrasad): @AaronBergman18 @Tjdriii I do think most people wouldn't learn it well. Also the main problem with filing taxes in the US is that the government doesn't do it for you. In no other country do people complain about it so much
Oh ya for sure. Forget fossil fuels/big agriculture. TurboTax owns the federal government
Monday, September 19, 2022
Reply to @uneventual, 01:07 UTC · 3 likes
lucy 🐧 (@uneventual): hanging out with amazon people is nuts you’ll be like “this sucks, we should leave” and they’ll be like “good idea! bias for action”
@panickssery
Reply to @JessicaValenti, 01:09 UTC · 81 likes
Jessica Valenti (@JessicaValenti): My 12 year-old had a sleepover last night and I regret to inform you she's the "hey guys let's keep it down" kid
Remembering the time (around 10 y/o) I tried convincing my friend’s mom to sign a contract saying we could stay up all night and eat whatever we wanted. She didn’t sign it :/
Tweet, 06:14 UTC · 4 likes
All the takes I’ve seen along the lines of “language models will never be able to do ____” or “the next DallE won’t get _____ right” seem woefully uncreative. Some things I’d legitimately be surprised to see (no technical expertise, some of these are likely dumb)
(1/?)
Thread, continued, 06:14 UTC · 3 likes
1) Language model can reliably, accurately report the locale in which it is being run (without being given some hint like “I’m next to the White House”)
Thread, continued, 06:14 UTC · 1 like
2) Language model reliably, accurately reports what card a person is holding in front of a webcam without any trace of a photo or video file being stored
Thread, continued, 06:14 UTC · 2 likes
3) (I think someone can test this; seems the most plausible) Language model is able to reliably communicate at a GPT-2/3 level, but where inputs are given by forming the *shape* of characters using only asterisks
Reply, 21:11 UTC · 2 likes
Not lawyer (probably for the best!)
Only a few months out from college so wouldn’t say I have a solid career yet haha. I’ve done a couple government economics-related internships, but now doing a mix of research types for a nonprofit (to put it briefly)
Reply to @mattyglesias, 21:41 UTC · 6 likes
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias): I came up with a Big Idea but now I need a catchy name for it.
One Billion One Billion Americans: the case for printing an inordinate number of physical books
Thread, continued, 21:45 UTC · 3 likes
Or One Billion American One Billion Americans: the case for a national publishing industry mega-revival
Thread, continued, 21:50 UTC · 2 likes
One American Billion: the case for keeping the money supply at exactly 1B USD
Thread, continued, 21:51 UTC · 3 likes
One American Billions: the case for abolishing billionaires except for one
Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Reply to @absurdlymax, 05:03 UTC · 1 like
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): I think I may have not gotten an EA internship because my offer to do a work test went to spam
Really sucks. Same would have happened for me about a year ago except the hiring person followed up
Quote tweet, 06:22 UTC · 3 likes
I'm legally obliged (by my influencer contract) to QT every time I get one of these updates
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Guess I'm an influencer on Google Maps now
Reply to @mealreplacer, 16:26 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
Would pay $5 for this sticker
Reply, 16:34 UTC · 10 likes
Implies about 6x number of neurons in all ants as in all humans. And, until someone has a better suggestion, neuron count seems like the least terrible proxy for moral value
Reply to @mirandahzhang, 17:07 UTC · 2 likes
Miranda Zhang (@mirandahzhang): I know personal consumption choices barely matter but the amount of waste that the US produces... I've never before encountered households that solely use disposable cutlery or people who consistently order more than they'll finish!
I used to have this sort of intuition pretty strongly, but eventually I think I got statistic-pilled into seeing light plastic waste more like letting tap water run down the drain than anything else. Maybe this is an over correction, but I’d guess not
Reply to @mirandahzhang, 17:48 UTC · 3 likes
Miranda Zhang (@mirandahzhang): Yeah, hmm, I also have this intuition around food waste but I suspect that isn't much worse than plastic.
FWIW I don't think it should be a moral judgment but I do think it's my aesthetic preference (e.g. a circular economy is very aesthetically pleasing to me).
FWIW I think food waste varies a ton across every metric. Some kinds like chicken really are bad, corn and soybeans more like plastic
Quote tweet, 18:15 UTC · 6 likes
I basically believe the YIMBY stance here but wonder how strawmanny it is
Like there’s gotta be at least one homeless guy who’d gladly take the title to some cheap house in exurban Wisconsin. Maybe low-skilled wages become worth working for when rent is $0!
Quoting sam (@sam_d_1995): wow you just solved the housing crisis!!
Thread, continued, 18:15 UTC · 3 likes
Kinda wonder if some decent low-skilled labor intensive business could set up shop in Somewhere, Iowa, and offer to literally give workers a house as a benefit
Clearly this doesn’t scale to country’s homeless population, but it might scale to 50
Reply to @pli_cachete, 22:23 UTC · 4 likes
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I don’t believe you
Tweet, 22:45 UTC · 4 likes
Appreciating the math/econ prof speak with fresh eyes
“reCALL…
*starts writing vigorously*
…last Wednesday we showed that for any hypergeometric Gilbert space, alpha-star, there exists a nonlinear homeomorphic field mapping omega-star-sub-i that satisfies
Thread, continued, 22:45 UTC · 2 likes
observation 4.3.7 from your textbook
*body has been blocking the board this whole time*
*turns around to face the class and let everyone catch up*
*someone’s hand shoots up*
“Yes, Mr. Johnson?”
*Dude says something that sounds vaguely like the thing that was just said*
Thread, continued, 22:45 UTC · 2 likes
*Repeat for 6-10 reps, 2 times a week for 20 weeks each of four 4 years, subbing in a few new pseudo-English terms each iteration*
Thread, continued, 22:47 UTC · 2 likes
They really be saying like “delta-hat-sub-rho-bar-over-theta” and think the term has semantic meaning
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Reply to @MariGO2thepolls, 09:03 UTC · 2 likes
🏳️🌈Mar G-O 🌐🇺🇦 (@MariGO2thepolls): What should I write my political philosophy midterm about?
If it has anything to do with the prompt “what is the relationshipship between immigration and anti-immigration backlash” (or something very similar, I’ll be happy to provide a ~30 page review essay trying to answer that question
Reply to @MariGO2thepolls, 09:08 UTC · 3 likes
🏳️🌈Mar G-O 🌐🇺🇦 (@MariGO2thepolls): What should I write my political philosophy midterm about?
Obviously salient (IMO for good reason): should/how can institutions represent the interests of future people?
Reply to @tszzl, 09:12 UTC · 6 likes
roon (@tszzl): where do you find an esoteric based therapist who has read slate star codex
Gotta ssc-pill your normie therapist
Reply, 18:37 UTC · 1 like
Had a situation where it only worked on exactly the second time being run after clearing/resetting everything
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 23:26 UTC · 2 likes
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This is a decent intuition pump for some form of suffering focused ethics
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 23:48 UTC · 2 likes
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Yeah I agree, but after giving it some thought best attempt at an answer is "if a being lived both lives [eg rat+factory farmed pig], what would they want to want?" which leads to my guess that for sufficiently bad suffering, no added pleasure would make the deal worth taking
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 23:51 UTC · 2 likes
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Lol ya, but my actual disbelief in the intrinsic value of preferences is why I put it in the form of second-order idealized preferences, which I currently believe is identical to looking at utility through a purely hedonic lense
Thursday, September 22, 2022
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 00:00 UTC · 2 likes
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Acc on second thought that wasn't phrased rigorously...
But the idea is it's possible for a person to want X but to want to not want X or vice-versa
To me it seems most clear/compelling in hypotheticals like "a person wants to be tortured but would still suffer terribly"
Quote tweet, 20:17 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, my brain has convinced itself that the right answer is almost certainly 5/12, then 3/8, then 1/2. 1/3 seems increasingly unlikely but who even knows at this point
Rn I’m like 60% sure it’s 1/2, and also give some weight to “no fact of the matter”
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): Ok I’m actually kinda sure 5/12 is the right answer now:
P(waking is subjective evidence of tails)=0.5, from the coin flip itself
P(heads | wake, wake=evidence) =2/3
P(heads | wake, waking not evidence)=1/2
All things considered subjective probability=.5*(2/3)+.5*(1/2)=5/12
Thread, continued, 20:17 UTC · 4 likes
Gotta be one of the higher difficulty to answer:difficulty to understand ratios out there
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem
Reply to @JosephPolitano, 20:55 UTC · 18 likes
Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano): Incredible interaction I just had:
"Joey, were you following the economy during the 2008 recession?
"I was 10 so no"
“I was 8 so yes”
Thread, continued, 20:56 UTC · 2 likes
Mostly kidding, though I do remember explicitly asking one of my parents where all the money went
Friday, September 23, 2022
Reply to @inesferhumi, 18:34 UTC · 2 likes
Inés (@inesferhumi): Also yes @absurdlymax @frances__lorenz she was the one that said she wouldn’t love me if i were a worm smh
What
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 18:38 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
Goes both ways lol. I was a pretty good climber at 90 pounds
Reply to @QualyThe, 20:39 UTC · 10 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): bold of you to assume we'll remember to show up to this
Good thing it’s not my first thing of the day (^me to the person I have a 5:00 1-1 with)
Sunday, September 25, 2022
Reply to @QiaochuYuan, 01:20 UTC · 7 likes
QC (@QiaochuYuan): i think one of the weirdest things i've learned as i've gotten older is that there really are maybe like ~12 types of guy (gender-neutral). idk the exact count but somewhere between 9 and 16. it's a surprisingly small number. i think when i was younger i expected way more
We👏want👏to👏see👏the👏list
Reply to @nullpointered, 03:22 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @nullpointered is no longer available.)
Wake up from the dream
Reply to @algekalipso, 04:17 UTC · 2 likes
Captain Pleasure, Andrés Gómez Emilsson (@algekalipso): Muscles are like a muscle, the more you use them, the more they grow/become strong.
Pretty sure this is wrong tho? I don’t think hypertrophy is maximized by maxing “amount used”= total lifted=reps*weight
Quote tweet, 18:00 UTC · 2 likes
This result is really quite ethically important. Doubt the results depend on 1M being too small
Of course, it’s possible that this intuition/preference about suffering is irrational or even unethical under hedonic utilitarianism, but IMO this view shoulders the burden of proof
Quoting Jordan Chase-Young (@jachaseyoung): (a) Would you endure 100 years of the most intense pain possible if you got to enjoy 1 million years of the most intense joy afterward? (2) Would you agree to 1 million years of max joy if you then had to endure 100 years of max pain?
Reply, 19:08 UTC · 1 like
Eh I think expenses associated providing for others (spouse and kids), especially when doing so is strongly socially, culturally, and legally expected, are meaningfully different from other forms of “personal consumption.”
…
Reply to @AskYatharth, 22:44 UTC · 2 likes
yatharth ༺༒༻ (@AskYatharth): what are some alternatives to the word “productivity”?
Doesn’t roll of the tongue but “instrumental rationality”
Monday, September 26, 2022
Tweet, 07:43 UTC · 3 likes
Kinda weird that the drafts on my phone and the drafts on my browser live in separate universes.
Please, @Twitter, I'm just trying to use your product and give you more of my data to sell
Reply to @mattyglesias, 19:28 UTC · 4 likes
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias): Everyone is surprisingly chill about the clearly elevated risk of nuclear war.
I still have my unopened potassium iodide
Reply to @QualyThe, 19:35 UTC · 2 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe):
Wait has that green heart thing been there the whole time?
Tuesday, September 27, 2022
Quote tweet, 02:16 UTC · 16 likes
Might sound like I’m trolling but…
Since defending alcohol a few weeks back (as a virtual non-drinker), I’ve learned/decided/realized (~1:1:1?) that I should probably drink more 🍻
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): @F_McCullough I personally actively dislike alcohol as a drug, but my prior on “a behavior/nutrient that was done/consumed (I assume?) with some frequency across cultures even before agriculture has at least one hidden important function” is pretty high
…
Thread, continued, 02:16 UTC · 10 likes
I didn’t mean for this microdosing experiment to be part of a more substantial change, but it might have subtly disrupted my identity as “someone who doesn’t drink” or something like that 🍷🍺
Thread, continued, 02:16 UTC · 7 likes
So I’ve been having about a half shot of rum (straight lol) most nights, probably increasing my alcohol intake from ~.5 to ~10 drinks/month🥂
Thread, continued, 02:16 UTC · 4 likes
I’m mostly just sharing because I think it’s kinda funny, but if I had to make a claim, it’d be something like:
“light drinking is probably more conducive to overall health and wellbeing than no (or almost no) drinking for most heathy adults, all things considered… 🥃
Thread, continued, 02:16 UTC · 4 likes
Subject to a bunch of common-sense conditions like
- Not if you’re pregnant
- Not if you’re at elevated risk of alcoholism
- No driving after, obviously
and probably more along these lines
Thread, continued, 02:16 UTC · 10 likes
The proximate cause/inspiration for this thread was my first trip to the local liquor store today. It was a pleasant but uneventful outing
(Hard to take a thumbs up selfie while holding a bottle but I tried👍)
Thread, continued, 02:28 UTC · 2 likes
Also please do your own research and make your own decision before hopping on this bandwagon!
Also the base rate of young men being dumb with alcohol has got to be pretty high, so maybe discount everything I’ve ever said on the matter!!
Reply to @henri_mourant, 03:27 UTC
Henri Mourant 🌱 (@henri_mourant): @AaronBergman18 Uhh... have you seen the recent mandellian randomization studies on moderate alcohol consumption? They tend to be more robust then cohort studies:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2790520
Nope, and honestly it could be fantastic evidence against this…
But frankly I don’t put a ton of weight on empirical nutrition research at large, put very little on any particular paper that’s not a Cochran review, and put basically none on any observational study at all
Thread, continued, 03:30 UTC
Almost all my belief here (which is pretty weak to be clear!) comes from
1) the prior that nutrients frequently consumed in humans’ ancestral environment are probably “healthy” (in some common sense understanding of the word) when consumed in similar amounts, and
Reply to @absurdlymax, 03:34 UTC · 2 likes
Max Alexander (@absurdlymax): @AaronBergman18 What are the benefits/ reasons to drink more? It seems like before you found no major changes?
No change from microdosing, and I don’t expect anything noticeable or really anything at all! More the general principle that almost never consuming a (macro)nutrient humans seem to have evolved around is probably riskier than not doing this. Bit more:
Reply to @HotForMoot, 07:36 UTC · 4 likes
Riley Read-Only (@HotForMoot): First date activities I’ll always refuse:
- Coffee, drinks, meal
- Movies, tv shows, live shows
Date activites I won’t refuse:
- Walks, urban exploration, hikes
- Museums
- Sports
- Hackathons
- Building, creating, making something
Let it be known that the return key only uses up one of your 280 characters
Reply to @Kirsten3531, 09:15 UTC · 3 likes
Kirsten (@Kirsten3531): @tyler_johnston @AaronBergman18 @absurdlymax Even if you thought "historically most people had a weak beer while they ate dinner with their family" I don't think I'd see a solid rationale for regularly drinking small amounts of hard liquor if you don't enjoy it!
Responding to both @tyler_johnston and @Kirsten3531, maybe my “claim” read as stronger than intended - for sure the paleo prior thing isn’t rock solid, humans have evolved, etc.
Maybe the key point to make is that I don’t see “not drinking” as a sort of default that needs to be…
Thread, continued, 09:19 UTC · 3 likes
overcome by strong evidence. Action/inaction distinction kind of thing.
And, either way, the decision of whether to consume an avg of ~2 tablespoons of alcohol a day would be like 900th thing on the list in terms of effect size
Reply to @RafaRuizdeLira, 09:36 UTC · 8 likes
Rafael Ruiz ⏸️🔸 (@RafaRuizdeLira): I have some criticisms about the way the EA movement is set up that I think could potentially earn me a bad reputation.
I'm not sure what to do with them so I'm just sitting on them until I decide.
Not saying you *should* do this, but if you wanted to, there’s almost certainly a way of putting it out anonymously (maybe in a few months or smth) in such a way that you could later credibly take credit for writing it if it got a good (or at least ok) reception
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 15:26 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
Voted agree, but to be a little pedantic, conviction need not result in prison time, and there are plenty of stories you could invent about how convicting guilty has nth order effects on false convictions
Reply to @FeralPHunter, 19:08 UTC · 14 likes
𝔽. ℙ. ℍunter 🦅 (@FeralPHunter): we need some dating discourse someone reply with a dumb hot take
Hypothesis no. 178 for the great marriage/relationship/sex decline:
Cultural change+more coed institutions mean more guy/girl friendships (and friend groups) -> would-be couples become platonic friends->higher opportunity cost of asking out bc rejection would make things weird
Thread, continued, 19:11 UTC
I actually don’t know how dumb this is lol
Wednesday, September 28, 2022
Tweet, 21:15 UTC · 6 likes
I think everyone quoted here missed a basic consideration: how much do billionaires consume, in terms of both money and real resources?
Some things a person with a checking account balance of $10B could do with that money:
(1/7)
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-billionaire
Thread, continued, 21:15 UTC · 3 likes
1) Leave it there, never withdraw
2) take out as physical cash, then burn it
3) give it all to the US federal government
4) as a joke, someone lists a t-shirt for $10B on eBay. He buys the t-shirt (technically consumption, ~0 real resource use)
(2/7)
Thread, continued, 21:15 UTC · 4 likes
5) Pay some number of people their reservation wage to dig ditches and fill them back in
5b) same but fewer ditches, better pay
6) Pay some number of people a reservation wage to build a beautiful public library or something
6b) same but smaller library, better pay
(3/7)
Thread, continued, 21:15 UTC · 5 likes
7) Buy $10B worth of rice at the market rate, dump it in the ocean
8) Buy $10B worth of rice at the market rate, resell it for slight premium
9) Buy $10B worth of rice at the market rate, donate to the global poor
(4/7)
Thread, continued, 21:15 UTC · 3 likes
10) Buy $10B worth of rice at the market rate, donate to the Agribusiness Chicken Husbandry Trade Association
11) die, somehow avoid estate tax, and leave it all to his only child
12) Give a bit under $1 to every human alive
(5/oh shit I miscounted)
Thread, continued, 21:15 UTC · 3 likes
13) Put it in a trust which gives $1 to the next 10B humans born (assume this works)
14) *sun explodes, evaporating the Earth before he does anything with the money*
(there are 8)
Thread, continued, 21:15 UTC · 4 likes
15) be a normal-ish billionaire, buying expensive shit, some of which economically looks like rice and some of which looks like expensive fine art and status goods, also investing some, giving some away, paying some as taxes, etc.
(n/(n+1))
Thread, continued, 21:15 UTC · 3 likes
I’m sure there are some important archetypes/idealized models of spending I missed, but the point is that I’m not so sure “net spending power=personal consumption as a typical basket of consumer goods and services” is good implicit assumption to work with!
(/end)
Reply to @adambinksmith, 23:43 UTC · 5 likes
Adam Binksmith (@adambinksmith): A negative side effect of studying analytic philosophy (for me):
I think I came away with too much appreciation for clever arguments for unlikely claims
In the real would, I think generating clever arguments is less useful than sound, sober judgement - weighing up the evidence
If anything I feel the opposite: lots of examples of 2 arguments, each of which ‘sounds’ convincing, but one concludes P and the other ~P (or the analog for >2 sides)
So eventually you learn that an argument sounding right is only weak evidence that it *is* right
Reply to @__drewface, 23:45 UTC · 10 likes
Andrew Rose (@__drewface): What could I offer that you would be excited to pay $10,000 for?
A bond co-signed by 3 others promising to pay me $12k in one year
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Reply to @EzraJNewman, 00:57 UTC · 8 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @EzraJNewman is no longer available.)
Right in the middle of this pipeline is biting the "yes I know not eating chicken will mean fewer chickens, and not existing is the better option" bullet (hardly feels like a bullet anymore lol)
Reply to @robertzzk, 18:06 UTC · 2 likes
Rob K (@robertzzk): Has anyone run a regression analysis on tweet length vs likes, ceteris paribus?
@peterwildeford @johnsimerlink
Might do this soon for my own tweets as long as it only takes a few minutes as I expect, using a download of all my Twitter data from a few weeks back
Tweet, 19:04 UTC · 2 likes
Tweet, 23:38 UTC · 9 likes
Twitter circles are interesting because they create a set of social dynamics/games (in the economic sense) that to the best of my knowledge don’t exist anywhere else, even online:
1) One person (the owner) has full information
…
Thread, continued, 23:38 UTC · 1 like
2) By default, no one knows who else besides the owner would be able to read their hypothetical reply
3) by replying once, you “reveal” yourself to be among the potential readers of others’ replies
4) The number circle members can be anywhere from 2 to the owner’s followers(?)
Thread, continued, 23:38 UTC · 2 likes
5) The owner alone can remove and add
6) all the above is common knowledge
I think those are the fundamentals, but they give rise to any number o higher-level properties involving social information, plausible deniability, etc. that might exist together for the first time here
Thread, continued, 23:38 UTC · 1 like
#sociologytwitter take note!
Friday, September 30, 2022
Reply to @robertzzk, 03:56 UTC · 2 likes
Rob K (@robertzzk): Has anyone run a regression analysis on tweet length vs likes, ceteris paribus?
@peterwildeford @johnsimerlink
Seems like maybe a slight positive correlation? I think there's some econometric test that would wrap all of these regressions into one, maybe "F test" but I don't really feel like figuring that out lol
Reply, 13:05 UTC · 2 likes
“How do I do python?” is perpetually a good take
Dead serious that the only way I ever have is in RStudio
Thread, continued, 13:06 UTC · 2 likes
Reply to @goth600, 13:18 UTC · 1 like
@goth (@goth600): Reply and I will make an assumption about you in the following categories; based-wordcel, based-shape-rotator, qualia-wordcel, qualia-shape-rotator.
Bet u can’t
Reply to @PradyuPrasad, 16:00 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @PradyuPrasad is no longer available.)
And a 5 tweet thread can embed like 60% of the information in a corresponding whole post but take literally <1% of the time
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