# Aaron Bergman's tweets, October 2024

Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in October 2024 and has not deleted: 321 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's.

This page is one month of [the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets](https://abergman.com/tweets), which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: [September 2024](https://abergman.com/tweets/2024-09). Next month: [November 2024](https://abergman.com/tweets/2024-11).

## Tuesday, October 1, 2024

### [Quote tweet, 12:48 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841097848294686847) · 5 likes

Ya fr it’s good

> **Quoting Jonathan Birch (@birchlse):** Very pleased to see a substantial review of The Edge of Sentience in the latest issue of Nature. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03076-z
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYzWflBW4AE_khM.png)

### [Reply to @kindgracekind, 15:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841144341303099596) · 4 likes

> **Grace (@kindgracekind):** You never hear about Unknown Knowns

There’s a documentary called this I think

### [Reply to @albrgr, 16:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841147964879687764) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @albrgr is no longer available.)_

Honestly, maybe (to answer the q)

### [Reply to @AndyMasley, 17:43 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841171973642055746) · 3 likes

> **Andy Masley (@AndyMasley):** I remain /r/atheism's strongest soldier. People have a constant tendency to start believing in magic again and we gotta epically debate them out of it.
>
> (quoting @morallawwithin: One bad side effect of the fall of logical positivism is people just started believing in magic again)

Sorry, I’m past the apex of the at least partially U-shaped epistemic curve

### [Thread, continued, 17:46 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841172797168525496) · 2 likes

The world is very strange

### [Reply to @ohabryka, 18:09 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841178622855692522) · 2 likes

> **Oliver Habryka (@ohabryka):** (to be clear, OP is not a fan of OpenAI. But OP is not the kind of actor that would say that openly because that doesn't match their model of how to gather and sustain social capital and influence, and because it doesn't want to take any positions that might hurt Dustin)

Hope you’re wrong, weakly think you’re right. Market fwiw https://manifold.markets/AaronBergman18/will-openphil-or-a-related-entity-e

### [Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 18:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841185547047305320) · 4 likes

> **Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus):** My boyfriend: "You have infinite job security \[as my girlfriend\]. The longshoreman of my heart ❤️"

Rizz

### [Reply to @hendrycks, 19:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841192235376771094) · 12 likes

> **Dan Hendrycks (@hendrycks):** It's worth also clarifying last year I voluntarily declined xAI equity when it was being founded. (Even .1% would be >$20mn.) If I was in it for the money I would have just left for industry long ago.
>
> (quoting @hendrycks: To send a clear signal, I am choosing to divest from my equity stake in Gray Swan AI. I will continue my work as an advisor, without pay. My goal is to make AI systems safe. I do this work on principle to promote the public interest, and that’s why I’ve chosen voluntarily to…)

Based

### [Reply to @slimepriestess, 19:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841192572238069940) · 2 likes

> **Ra (@slimepriestess):** woo i passed my road test!

🎉

### [Tweet, 19:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841205679299658148) · 32 likes

Spotify has gone woke

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY1GzsyWcAAdccp.jpg)

### [Reply, 22:14 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841240233091674511) · 1 like

Likewise if you stretch it a bit, or squish it, or give it many other arbitrary molecules

### [Quote tweet, 22:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841246721466052944) · 6 likes

Fun fact I won an essay contest in high school proposing exactly this

> **Quoting Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 (@JeremiahDJohns):** The actual proposal is to have the govt as single purchaser who would compensate kidney donors, not to have an anything goes market.
>
> Matt knows this but thinks you're stupid and won't notice. He also just doesn't care that tens of thousands die every year from lack of kidneys.

## Wednesday, October 2, 2024

### [Reply to @livgorton, 02:30 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841304632863158684) · 3 likes

> **Liv (@livgorton):** “you know what Tim, I agree!!” slay JD but you’re on the wrong ticket. maybe in another life, they could’ve been friends 🥺

🥺

### [Quote tweet, 17:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841536033625674211) · 10 likes

New pdf just dropped

> **Quoting Andrea Miotti (@andreamiotti):** A NARROW PATH
>
> If attempts to build superintelligent AI succeed, we face extinction as a species.
>
> We must choose a different path, one where we control what we create. One where AI is a tool for human advancement, not a successor species.
>
> Humanity has no plan, so we built one.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY5fKEtX0AAJ0dq.jpg)

### [Reply to @livgorton, 17:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841536330284896279) · 2 likes

> **Liv (@livgorton):** i miss golden gate claude

😢

### [Reply to @mattyglesias, 17:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841537076254167204) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @mattyglesias is no longer available.)_

Nooooo I love offhand speculation

### [Reply to @JeremiahDJohns, 18:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841547161827475616) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @JeremiahDJohns is no longer available.)_

Wtf lol

### [Reply to @austinc3301, 22:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841612090982732173) · 3 likes

> **Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301):** I've said this before and I'll say it again: the EA Forum is such an underrated piece of software

Works better than twitter lol

## Thursday, October 3, 2024

### [Tweet, 01:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841646152455704602) · 5 likes

Why is it always AI, AI, AI?

We need a new unusually charismatic baby zoo animal to disrupt this memetic aristocracy

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY7Xak_XIAAruYi.jpg)

### [Reply to @mindyisser, 01:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841656835658445213) · 30 likes

> **mindy🌷 (@mindyisser):** friend saw this guy on the apps lol
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY7QXvkWoAA8NOr.jpg)

God forbid men have a hobby

### [Tweet, 01:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841659084203798652) · 9 likes

What goes on in New Zealand? It seems like a mysterious place

### [Reply to @adnhw, 02:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841661177119875263) · 1 like

> **Aidan Homewood (@adnhw):** Pretty spread out, so lots of good nature. Stable constitutional monarchy. Biggest city has 1.5 million people. Weather is good. Not dense enough for trains, can't build enough houses either. No native mammal species, which is a shame for megafauna fans like me.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY7kbaha0AARJI6.jpg)

Fascinating

Wait no native mammals wtf? No kangaroos or squirrels or mice? Sad

### [Reply to @frances__lorenz, 16:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841874881115230411) · 3 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)_

Lmao

### [Reply to @notanastronomer, 16:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841881407326494891) · 1 like

> **Lauren Gilbert (@notanastronomer):** so long London 😢 😢 😢
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY-sf2oXoAITTwk.jpg)

Where u goin

### [Tweet, 17:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841900422484857279) · 16 likes

I’m not sure how accurate this is, but I increasingly see the (US) economy as divided into Normal Economy and Infinite Money Economy, where the latter you get to join if you’re within ~2 degrees of separation from a Money Printing Machine (tech company with large profit margins)

### [Thread, continued, 17:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841900733505175570) · 8 likes

This is based entirely on vibes and the perhaps-uncommon situation of having my social circle straddle the two worlds

Like wdym you have a random extra MacBook lying around lmao

### [Tweet, 21:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841946418631868868) · 19 likes

Orange man bad

### [Reply to @Lewis_Bollard, 22:35 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1841970394825425009) · 6 likes

> **Lewis Bollard (@Lewis_Bollard):** Factory farmers deride activists claiming systemic cruelty as crazy conspiracy theorists.
>
> And then they publish resources like this…
>
> https://animalagalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/2024-Activist-Web.pdf
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY_GX7-bAAAdXPq.jpg)

Honestly it would be great if there was a gigantic conspiracy

## Friday, October 4, 2024

### [Reply to @birchlse, 12:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842182031045788137) · 2 likes

> **Jonathan Birch (@birchlse):** On my course The Big Questions this year:
>
> Do I know anything?
> Can I choose what I do?
> How do I tell right from wrong?
> Should I obey the law?
> What's the best form of government?
> What is art?
> How can I live a meaningful life?
>
> Feels like a great privilege to have this job!

Let us know when you figure out the answers

### [Tweet, 12:55 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842186897839599779) · 12 likes

They should make a HIPAA that’s still like “you can’t just gossip about patients” but not like “you have to build a bespoke messaging platform to communicate”

### [Thread, continued, 12:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842186945612644570) · 3 likes

This makes me sad as I do love gossip

### [Reply to @frances__lorenz, 13:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842189150633828362) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)_

I stand with Julian

### [Quote tweet, 15:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842227819817906660) · 5 likes

It’s a good observation

Wanna be a doctor to help patients? Update the fucking XML file

Want to be a pharmacist to, idk, to pharmacist stuff? Manage the fucking inventory

Want to do biomedicine to cure diseases? Torture the fucking mice and file the fucking grant applications

> **Quoting Visakan Veerasamy (@visakanv):** fwiw i think there's a version of this in every single industry. like you wanna do real journalism so you join news media? scale the fucking pageviews. you wanna do real science so you join academia? scale the fucking... citations? (idk what they do i'm not an academic)

### [Quote tweet, 15:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842228737477091819) · 6 likes

Well at least it’s apparent now that OpenAI has done a total 180 with respect to their original (and maybe technically still binding?) mission

Once again, @open_phil should sue over corporate restructuring

> **Quoting Gabriel Weil (@gabriel_weil):** This, via @TheZvi, seems... not great.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY-yfynXAAAaFj3.jpg)

### [Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 16:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842245946362511634) · 2 likes

> **Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt):** Whitepill is that b2b SaaS and inventory management and xml files have ushered in an era of prosperity unimaginable to our ancestors

I do like a good xml file. Lots of juicy structured data

### [Reply to @jaybaxter, 22:15 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842327645737873418) · 7 likes

> **Jay Baxter (@jaybaxter):** How excited would you be to trade in this particular presidential prediction market on X vs. having to trade on a different website?
>
> (Separately from other interesting ideas like many little prediction markets for claims in posts)
>
> (quoting @NathanpmYoung: Hey @elonmusk, how long until we get prediction markets on X? I want to quickly bet against people I disagree with.)

Who will be POTUS? Not super excited - that’s gotta be like the single most liquid market

The value twitter brings is just way more users, which enables a reasonable amount of liquidity on less popular markets

### [Reply to @metakuna, 22:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842336318497468492) · 4 likes

> **metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna):** Great job interview + dating strategy I've hit on is to steer the conversation towards one of your special interests and then filibuster to run out the clock

\*taking notes\*

## Saturday, October 5, 2024

### [Reply to @_Mira___Mira_, 07:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842469798728388921) · 2 likes

> **Mira (@_Mira___Mira_):** These analogies miss the whole point.
>
> There's algorithms that are faster than on a classical computer. GHC runs on classical computers. So any useful analogy must distinguish the two.
>
> "Floating point error", "lazy evaluation", "caching" don't let you factor prime numbers fast.
>
> (quoting @fchollet: In quantum mechanics, the observer effect boils down to the idea that the world state is lazily evaluated (i.e. you only compute something when the result is causally needed to evaluate something else). This makes the many-world interpretation very icky: MWI requires "compute"…)

I can factor prime numbers fast. In my head even

### [Reply to @bashu_thanks, 08:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842487151847493979) · 7 likes

> **bashu, thanks (@bashu_thanks):** assisted pullups where the assistance is just a girl sitting next to the machine silently looking at me

I feel in my bones I could do a 1-arm under these circumstances

### [Reply to @bashu_thanks, 08:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842487402440376631) · 6 likes

> **bashu, thanks (@bashu_thanks):** assisted pullups where the assistance is just a girl sitting next to the machine silently looking at me

### [Quote tweet, 11:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842527919417012409) · 4 likes

Obesity is such a big deal to so many economically and politically relevant people that I feel like there should be some elegant long-term straight-lines-on-a-graph thing that explains the timing here

But afaict it was just dumb luck and biomed pipeline idiosyncrasies

> **Quoting The Alex Nowrasteh (@AlexNowrasteh):** Organic food, seed oils elimination, or other food cult didn’t do this, it was Ozempic and semaglutides.
>
> Have you thanked big pharma today? I will do it for you. Thank you big pharma.
>
> THANK YOU.

### [Thread, continued, 11:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842527921186947147) · 3 likes

Luck in both directions tbc. Like it could have easily come a decade earlier and maybe even a decade later

### [Tweet, 16:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842602812573979004) · 35 likes

Maintenance guy showed up to replace air filter—ostensibly, at least, and I’m like 99.8% sure in reality too

But it’s a little unnerving that I definitely would have let in any 20-60 year old dude in a jumpsuit who committed to the same bit

### [Reply to @GjMcGowan, 16:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842609037906772003) · 4 likes

> **George McGowan (@GjMcGowan):** @JesseTayRiver "to replace an air filter" omg these grifters

Yeah at an economic level it’s interesting how much deadweight loss there is bc of weird contractual dynamics between landlord and renter

Like I could have replaced the air filter lol, and would have if I owned instead of rented

### [Reply to @GjMcGowan, 19:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842647464504897940) · 2 likes

> **George McGowan (@GjMcGowan):** @JesseTayRiver @AaronBergman18 Oh no who was that guy Aaron!!

Lmao

### [Quote tweet, 22:54 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842699974330450421) · 4 likes

Based

> **Quoting Senior PowerPoint Engineer (@ryxcommar):**
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZIXEhOWcAAhACr.jpg)

## Sunday, October 6, 2024

### [Reply to @rgblong, 03:14 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842765385499656379) · 2 likes

> **Robert Long (@rgblong):** as a fellow life enjoyer, I fear and suspect that this means we do not, in fact, know how dark life gets

Correct take lol

### [Tweet, 17:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842983580127154678) · 11 likes

It should be illegal to have a supplement (or whatever) bottle with “1000 MG” and “100 CAPSULES” in big print and then it turns out the serving size is 4 caps, 250mg each

### [Quote tweet, 17:46 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842984707094700104) · 4 likes

Oh snap 🔥🔥🔥

> **Quoting Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301):** @AaronBergman18 @LinchZhang Your arguments seem surprisingly unconvincing to me

### [Reply to @QualyThe, 17:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842984930898530585) · 2 likes

> **Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe):** Here's a light mode version: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jSPGFxLmzJTYSZTK3/reality-is-often-underpowered

Thanks qualy

### [Tweet, 17:55 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842986983033032966) · 4 likes

Intuitively, based on my memory, when I am very active on one day (measured by steps, which I’m ~certain is a good proxy), I tend to be less active the next day

But no matter how I configure the autoregression (data from apple health), this keeps looking to be false

### [Thread, continued, 17:55 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842986984677257684) · 2 likes

I actually have no idea what’s going on. Like I’m pretty sure both the data and my memory are encoding true things, but I don’t know how they reconcile

Someone should make a blog/forum for nerds to debate epistemology and other stuff like this

### [Tweet, 17:59 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842988112894660721) · 11 likes

Do British ppl actually say “bruv”

### [Reply, 18:01 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842988652978450935) · 1 like

This…doesn’t answer?

### [Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 18:14 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1842991718574268898) · 2 likes

> **Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver):** Much of this currently appears to rely on endorsements from popular figures and doesn't show much evidence of success. This entire area is unimpressive to me so we may find little common ground

Basically I just trust Thorne, Life Extension, and Integrative Therapeutics

If one of these is ever shown to have serious labeling or quality issues, I’ll be wrong

### [Tweet, 19:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843012886798766522) · 14 likes

The entire @dwarkesh_sp x Joe Carlsmith is just:

Dwarkesh: Q

Joe Carlsmith: we must distinguish between subtypes Q_1, Q_2, and Q_3

### [Thread, continued, 19:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843012889218781306) · 2 likes

This is good btw. Not quite necessary for good philosophy but often a hallmark of it

### [Thread, continued, 19:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843013070458900888) · 2 likes

You should listen to the whole 6 hours on Joe’s feed btw https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/joe-carlsmith-audio/id1648436675?i=1000671332969

### [Reply to @bengrossbg, 20:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843024726215753972) · 1 like

_(The tweet being replied to by @bengrossbg is no longer available.)_

Based nice I should try to do this at least partially

## Monday, October 7, 2024

### [Quote tweet, 00:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843084891250188709) · 4 likes

What explains Travis Scott, Kendrick, and Kanye fans leaning left and Juice WRLD fans leaning right?

> **Quoting Maxwell Tabarrok (@MTabarrok):** Median voter theorem for musicians
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZPlCFDWIAAAbJv.jpg)

### [Reply to @aphercotropist, 01:29 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843101333643239534) · 8 likes

> **Arbutus Tree (@aphercotropist):** nothing ever happens
>
> (quoting @anveio: @aphercotropist Instrument error https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.16773)

Sad

### [Reply to @BogdanIonutCir2, 01:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843101772308770975) · 5 likes

> **Bogdan Ionut Cirstea (@BogdanIonutCir2):** Do AI safety programs/jobs deliberately pick various trials that seem almost impossible (especially within time / word limits) or is it a failure of theory of mind?

I agree with other commenters but it doesn’t help that IQ 145 is table stakes here and I’m only slightly kidding

### [Reply to @mealreplacer, 01:35 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843102882394259758) · 4 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)_

Shoot ur shot king

Cc @charli_xcx

### [Reply to @pearl_please, 20:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843391906472219066) · 10 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @pearl_please is no longer available.)_

I got a quite detailed one of these not long ago. Unironically fascinating to read

### [Reply to @pearl_please, 20:54 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843394562024452354) · 3 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @pearl_please is no longer available.)_

Yes same! lol

### [Reply to @pearl_please, 20:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843395465657618715) · 5 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @pearl_please is no longer available.)_

Iirc it said “dressed appropriately” or smth like that

Need to level up to well-dressed

## Wednesday, October 9, 2024

### [Reply to @absurdlymax, 02:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843844233255666103) · 3 likes

> **Max Alexander (@absurdlymax):** He's a rare are perfect combination of very funny and very knowledgeable

Tragically he has a few incorrect opinions but yes I agree. Also follow him on Strava if you want to be humbled!!

### [Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 02:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843844890167566494) · 4 likes

> **Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver):** Thanks so much Alexander! But is there maybe something that you also may have missed?
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZal9RpWIAEO5TV.png)

😤

### [Tweet, 03:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1843851711343145424) · 22 likes

Zinc, selenium, and boron-fortified pasta called testosteroni

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZatXCfWoAAeExY.jpg)

### [Reply to @albrgr, 18:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844087236226318617) · 5 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @albrgr is no longer available.)_

Baby

### [Quote tweet, 19:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844097145441559037) · 6 likes

Very funny listening to the end and then having Spotify immediately autoplay “THIS EPISODE OF THE JOE ROGAN EXPERIENCE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY CALL OF DUTY: BLACK OPS 6”

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** Edge of Sentience is such a banger. If you’re at all interested in altruism or ethics (or at least enough to read other books from this motivation) you should probably read https://www.edgeofsentience.com

### [Thread, continued, 19:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844097148025184698) · 5 likes

Took a while to finish bc I thought the technical issues listening from Apple Podcasts was gonna be universal. If you’re having trouble listening there, try Spotify

Again, highly recommended - especially part 5 on AI

## Thursday, October 10, 2024

### [Tweet, 00:10 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844168587910717600) · 105 likes

Yud should probably win something prestigious

Idk if any of the Nobels make sense, but for better or worse he’s one of the most important thinkers of his generation

### [Reply to @NoahTopper, 00:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844169448326136012) · 14 likes

> **Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper):** he's won my undying affection, shouldn't that be enough?

Ur affection should probably decay at some nonzero rate no? Still as intense in 1 trillion years?

### [Reply to @trysterowl, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844193927504724057) · 6 likes

> **trysterowl (@trysterowl):** @AaronBergman18 Can you imagine how mad people would be

Sadly yes lol

### [Quote tweet, 19:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844454371679142003) · 9 likes

I don’t know what I’m talking about but I’m gonna speculate this is Turing complete

> **Quoting Max Alexander (@absurdlymax):** This is the ultimate form of Google Docs
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZi9OeuXsA0QcqV.png)

### [Reply to @PeterJAngel, 21:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844497321150783918) · 2 likes

> **Peter🧅📈 (@PeterJAngel):** @ZachariahSchwab @AaronBergman18 has anyone on the EA form posted about this?

Idk but I’d be shocked if it came out looking better than AMF. Like this is an OG 2012 EA “how do u do health charities” thing

## Friday, October 11, 2024

### [Tweet, 00:12 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844531470980849692) · 37 likes

What idiot decided that you have to give yourself ~permission~ to run a file that you created, when ur logged in as the only user on ur own computer

Chmod my ass

### [Reply to @adrusi, 00:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844533828561310005) · 2 likes

> **autumn (@adrusi):** @AaronBergman18 "permissions" are used for more than access control, which is why theyre more formally called "modes"
>
> for regular files (i.e. not directories) the executable bit is really just a flag that you set to tell software that it's the kind of thing you might want to run

Sounds like some nerd bullshit and a solvable issue

### [Reply to @adrusi, 00:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844534392988811313) · 3 likes

> **autumn (@adrusi):** @AaronBergman18 "permissions" are used for more than access control, which is why theyre more formally called "modes"
>
> for regular files (i.e. not directories) the executable bit is really just a flag that you set to tell software that it's the kind of thing you might want to run

Fair enough, in AaronTopia a prompt will just come up that says “do you want to treat this file as executable y/n” instead of “permission denied”

I guess I could probably manually make this happen somehow

### [Reply to @shinboson, 15:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844769157595718066) · 2 likes

> **𝞍 Shin Megami Boson 𝞍 (@shinboson):** reply to this and I'll tell you what mental notes I've made about you

Curious if any

### [Reply to @shinboson, 16:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844771786669293865) · 2 likes

> **𝞍 Shin Megami Boson 𝞍 (@shinboson):** friendly, intelligent, very well intentioned, makes pause AI less annoying to me

☺️

### [Tweet, 16:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844784654433259939) · 2 likes

The resolution of my visual field gets better in the fall relative to summer and you can’t convince me otherwise

### [Tweet, 17:34 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844793650468766157) · 311 likes

We should just evacuate all of Taiwan and give them all green cards. Aircraft carriers bring the expensive high tech machines to San Francisco Bay. China can have an empty island

### [Thread, continued, 17:34 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844793652070982129) · 60 likes

Obviously this is not going to happen but directionally the idea seems highly underrated in foreign policy

Land doesn’t move away from the borders of aggressive illiberal states; people and institutions can

### [Reply to @StefanFSchubert, 17:43 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844796041171718286) · 6 likes

> **Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert):**
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZoGoLUWMAAsijc.png)

Yeah, hence this clarification. What “directionally” would look like in reality is green cards now, but other more intensive measures can and do look less insane on the backdrop of any war, especially between the two most powerful countries

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 17:46 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844796716131762477) · 38 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, October 11, 2024:** Obviously this is not going to happen but directionally the idea seems highly underrated in foreign policy Land doesn’t move away from the borders of…

Tbc the first tweet isn’t literally what I endorse. I don’t think the US should \*force\* anyone to move. I do endorse things like universal green cards + incentives to move + potential recognition of a government in exile

### [Thread, continued, 17:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844796868678586524) · 34 likes

I think these things seem less crazy the more seriously you take Chinese invasion of Taiwan

### [Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 17:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844797661435527633) · 3 likes

> **Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung):** we could put them all up in underground apartments

lol exactly!

### [Reply to @NoahTopper, 17:55 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844799117672722585) · 2 likes

> **Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper):** @AaronBergman18 @adrusi It's so obviously Bergmania

Agreed, I should get 4 square miles of sovereignty somewhere to test my insane ideas

### [Reply, 18:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844801293547917318) · 3 likes

> **Coase’s "Net effect?" Ghost 🏴🕊️ (@GhostCoase):** One worry here is that one might have to run again.
>
> Namely, the Chinese government, or some other one, is now incentivized to announce additional planned invasions and blackmail the population into leaving. Particularly useful for ethnic cleansing.

I agree this is a worry but my sense is that “unification” w Taiwan is a sui generis part of CCP hawk ideology

This doesn’t entirely erase the concern ofc

### [Reply to @slimepriestess, 18:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844801823019798701) · 10 likes

> **Ra (@slimepriestess):**
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZoK4_obwAAD18l.jpg)

Almost unironically lol

### [Tweet, 20:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844831775882887567) · 3 likes

There’s a mental toolkit I call “econ brain” which is eg asking what the incentives and constraints are in a given situation, and how to model something as a market, and a bunch of other heuristics …

## Saturday, October 12, 2024

### [Reply to @MysteryDigital2, 06:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1844993277843427775) · 2 likes

> **MysteryDigital (@MysteryDigital2):** pause emoji, exceptional take incoming
>
> (quoting @AaronBergman18: We should just evacuate all of Taiwan and give them all green cards. Aircraft carriers bring the expensive high tech machines to San Francisco Bay. China can have an empty island)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZq7m2JXsAA4JBj.jpg)

### [Reply to @notcomplex_, 07:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845006561095111068) · 2 likes

> **Alex (@notcomplex_):** Fascinating, the association between age biomarkers and IQ is as strong as with facial aging.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZnqXvjXUAAa5S_.jpg)

This is probably because of serious cognitive dysfunction like Alzheimer’s, not normal hot people being smart (there’s probably a correlation there but much weaker)

### [Tweet, 12:35 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845080899307577390) · 52 likes

Holy shit guys it’s not worth engaging with this. Skim it if you want to be convinced for yourself, but mostly just don’t waste your time

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZsLTIzWsAstu8e.jpg)

### [Tweet, 13:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845088009881850012) · 8 likes

Pleased to announce that I am an eliminativist about moral attribution (Shapley values and such in the context of moral philosophy)

### [Thread, continued, 13:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845088011374960743) · 5 likes

People want “attribution” to track some fundamental property of the world but I don’t think there’s a fact of matter about how many “moral points” a person should get in any given circumstance - there are only better and worse decision procedures

### [Thread, continued, 13:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845088012914344286) · 2 likes

Maybe this is just what people mean? Like “what is the best decision procedure”?

But if so that’s not how it’s usually talked about (eg Parfit’s writing here)

## Sunday, October 13, 2024

### [Reply to @ciphergoth, 02:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845294518863573273) · 2 likes

> **Paul Crowley (@ciphergoth):** Yes this, thank you for saying it! Or as Caplan said:
>
> "I can’t help but feel like you’re trying to intimidate me into pretending to agree with you"
>
> https://www.betonit.ai/p/i-cant-help-but-feel-like-youre-trying

Good line

### [Reply, 03:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845309789942775819) · 3 likes

Me and who

### [Reply to @inesferhumi, 13:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845456093985607828) · 1 like

> **Inés (@inesferhumi):** From my first appointment with my university’s psychiatrist, which i had booked for ENTIRELY unrelated reasons
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZwz3QdW4AclLAv.jpg)

lol

### [Reply to @inesferhumi, 13:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845456294041293293) · 11 likes

> **Inés (@inesferhumi):** From my first appointment with my university’s psychiatrist, which i had booked for ENTIRELY unrelated reasons
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZwz3QdW4AclLAv.jpg)

Gay Peruvian ASD gf

Fidgety well-dressed gf

### [Quote tweet, 13:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845456672245829641) · 11 likes

Wtf this is nuts

> **Quoting Elon Musk (@elonmusk):** The tower has caught the rocket!!
>
> [video attached](https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1845442658397049011/video/1)

### [Reply to @jkeatn, 13:32 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845457545114120370) · 2 likes

> **Jake Eaton (@jkeatn):** For years @JesseTayRiver has described himself as a blue collar type of guy
>
> Turns out he was elite this whole time
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZxg3BZawAATxdf.png)
> (quoting @JesseTayRiver: I'm the only blue collar guy on my street and I'm pretty sure one of my neighbors left me traffic cones as a gift. So weird)

[![GIF thumbnail](https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/GZxh2tPW4AQJ3Ca.jpg)](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845457545114120370/photo/1) (gif, plays on X)

### [Reply to @JamesOzden, 13:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845459716102554033) · 3 likes

> **James Özden 🔸 (@JamesOzden):** Visited a caged hen farm with around 50,000 hens in cages. Each cage contains 4 hens, all unable to spread their wings or move more than a few centimetres.
>
> Sadly, this is the reality for the over 3 billion egg-laying hens alive today.
>
> [video attached](https://x.com/JamesOzden/status/1845407151784591508/video/1)

😡

### [Reply to @livgorton, 19:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845543003697332366) · 4 likes

> **Liv (@livgorton):** running is great! starting to properly work on improving my running gives me a similar very positive experience to when i started lifting - regularly doing something i didn’t believe i was capable of feels very psychologically beneficial.
>
> (quoting @katclone: almost 9 months of daily running (- one 3 week break) runner’s high is incredible, highly recommend)

No running sucks

### [Thread, continued, 19:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845546705225212316) · 2 likes

Walking otoh

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZyy8mVWoAAPtfd.jpg)

### [Reply to @Kirsten3531, 20:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845561031105581339) · 2 likes

> **Kirsten (@Kirsten3531):** I mentioned this thread to my husband and he was like "oh yeah, private equity is really into buying hvac companies rn" as if that's just a thing people KNOW

Lmao

### [Reply, 20:30 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845562806810071478) · 1 like

Well sometimes the criticism actually is stupid lol

Fwiw I will happily provide examples of true/good criticism

## Monday, October 14, 2024

### [Tweet, 00:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845616789499019601) · 7 likes

24 hour twitter fast ready go

## Tuesday, October 15, 2024

### [Thread, continued, 00:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1845979407359398382) · 4 likes

I have retvrned

### [Reply to @absurdlymax, 04:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846049736446406710) · 3 likes

> **Max Alexander (@absurdlymax):** @notanastronomer Haha we got another one

The cult expands 😈

### [Reply to @goingawoll, 12:29 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846166452048450007) · 3 likes

> **Amos Wollen 🦐🪰✴️ (@goingawoll):** What will I get from reading continental philosophy that I won’t get from reading literature instead?

Delusions of wisdom

### [Reply to @adic_9, 13:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846180295080325198) · 3 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @adic_9 is no longer available.)_

On second thought maybe I should have answered the middle option. I do sorta, same with butterflies in stomach, but idk if I’d call these emotions. Or maybe I’d call them distinct from emotions that accompany them…

### [Reply, 18:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846263117833212321)

Bruh

### [Reply, 19:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846266187346596162) · 1 like

It’s just nuts that this is possible

### [Reply, 19:09 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846267201621459407) · 4 likes

Maybe I should try this meditation thing again

### [Reply to @rSanti97, 19:35 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846273789467771345) · 2 likes

> **Santi Ruiz (@rSanti97):** Shoutout to Natural Exploration Areas, one of my favorite types of areas
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZ8fibxWEAEAbA0.jpg)

Man has seen some things

### [Tweet, 22:08 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846312102207910166) · 5 likes

Omg it’s cool outside!!!!! 🍂🍁 ❄️🌨️🧊🥶🧣🧤🧥🎿⛄️🏂🌬️🍂🍁☃️🏔️🏞️🥘🍲🦌🎄🕯️🛷🧦❄️🌨️🧊🥶🧣🧤🧥🎿⛄️🏂🌬️🍂🍁☃️🏔️🏞️🥘🍲🦌🎄🕯️🛷🧦❄️🌨️🧊🥶🧣🧤🧥🎿⛄️🏂🌬️🍂🍁☃️🏔️🏞️🥘🍲🦌🎄🕯️🛷🧦❄️🌨️🧊🥶🧣🧤🧥🎿⛄️🏂🌬️🍂🍁☃️🏔️🏞️🥘🍲🦌🎄🕯️🛷🧦❄️🌨️🧊🥶🧣🧤🧥🎿⛄️🏂🌬️🍂🍁☃️🏔️🏞️🥘🍲🦌🎄🕯️🛷🧦❄️🌨️🧊🥶🧣🧤🧥🎿⛄️

### [Thread, continued, 22:08 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846312204448219571) · 2 likes

Still tank top szn but it’s getting marginal

### [Tweet, 23:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846326486795477196) · 6 likes

I’d consider paying for Strava Premium if the AI roasted you instead of being relentlessly upbeat

### [Tweet, 23:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846328639358480835) · 7 likes

Guy who thinks humans aren’t phenomenally conscious but AIs are

## Wednesday, October 16, 2024

### [Reply, 00:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846343797770481974) · 1 like

Seriously big if true

### [Reply to @ChanaMessinger, 01:39 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846365226108596646) · 2 likes

> **Chana (@ChanaMessinger):** Hypothetically it's a bad sign if your iron gummies start tasting better, yeah?

lol

### [Tweet, 02:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846374628501213434) · 18 likes

Give me a philosophy issue and I’ll tell you the correct take on the matter

### [Reply to @absurdlymax, 02:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846377215350493585) · 2 likes

> **Max Alexander (@absurdlymax):** @AaronBergman18 But I already know the answer to everything???

lol I was considering adding to the thread “and then @absurdlymax will explain why my answer is wrong”

### [Reply to @mealreplacer, 02:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846382417164067034) · 3 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)_

There’s a joke to be found involving longless/lesslong/lesswrong

### [Quote tweet, 02:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846384948896252227) · 11 likes

Many are saying. Internet friends are great

Also cackled out loud at the highlighted bit

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZ-tU0jWMAA1R2R.jpg)

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** You’re probably overestimating the risks and underestimating the benefits of using your real name, face, and location for your profile
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-QfpzUWsAA9W_c.jpg)

### [Reply, 05:19 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846420608411734398)

lol

### [Reply to @taoburr, 05:20 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846421020707545194) · 3 likes

> **Tao Burga (@taoburr):** One box or two boxes? (Predictor is 99.9% accurate)

Honestly thank you for asking bc I have been thinking to myself “ya know I think evidential dc is basically just right” recently but hadn’t bothered to remember whether that made me a one- or two-boxer

### [Thread, continued, 05:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846421199179354363) · 2 likes

Now I can proudly identify as a member of some camp in the Great LessWrong Meetup War of 2025 (9 casualties; 0 LW bans)

### [Reply to @beala, 06:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846432658970067234) · 6 likes

> **Alex Beal 🆎 (@beala):**
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZ_QTYCb0AMrusG.jpg)

I reject the implicit XOR premise, surely both have occurred at some point

### [Reply to @NoahTopper, 07:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846447385167139208) · 5 likes

> **Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper):** @AaronBergman18 @Tao_Burga Wait no EDT is still entirely wrong, one-boxing is right for independent reasons

Ok at some point u should probably explain this to me

### [Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 07:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846450121459765417) · 2 likes

> **oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle):** What age can someone meaningful consent to a relationship with 1000 year old vampire? What age can someone meaningful consent to being turned into a vampire?

My non-answer answer is that this is closer to a question of empirical psychology and sociology than philosophy (but this is true if and ~iff you accept some contentious philosophical claims that seem unrelated prima facie, like utilitarianism)

### [Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 07:20 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846451098036428800) · 3 likes

> **oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle):** @AaronBergman18 But we don't have any empirical research around vampires, so what's your all things considered view

Never bc vampires don’t exist

### [Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 07:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846451913895649749) · 4 likes

> **oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle):** @AaronBergman18 https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846047048983806287?t=_1LQEELccWWwpCoWRFBJfQ&s=19

There are no RCTs on whether vampires exist so it’s 50/50

### [Reply to @ohwizenedtortle, 07:37 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846455413283139619) · 5 likes

> **oh dandy lion🔸 (@ohwizenedtortle):** @AaronBergman18 OK what are the necessary and sufficient conditions required to consent

Bro are u trying to get me cancelled bc I try to answer and forget something

### [Tweet, 07:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846457515795419221) · 2 likes

Please consider listening to some sample audio and voting on your favorite voice for an update to the feed (links below)

https://open.spotify.com/show/7x1NPYRn55K3nZz855tB29?si=6NR4bm9BSUm-GXgWTtyjPA

### [Reply to @Kirsten3531, 07:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846458644147142989) · 9 likes

> **Kirsten (@Kirsten3531):** anyone gone on a holiday with toddlers that they liked? can you tell me about it please?

Yeah when I was the toddler. Disney world was great

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 07:55 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846459849527239168) · 3 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, October 16, 2024:** Bro are u trying to get me cancelled bc I try to answer and forget something

Ok I will list things as I think of them but the list can’t be assumed to be complete until I say so

Necessary:

\- (Accurate) understanding of the option space
\- An approximately-rational mind

### [Thread, continued, 07:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846460168583700687) · 3 likes

\- at least one of {minimal time discounting, a set of action conclusions that resolve relatively soon, willingness and ability to simulate option 1 in one’s mind}

### [Thread, continued, 07:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846460808210882980) · 2 likes

Not an answer to the question but probably both relevant and contentious:

Consent doesn’t have a fundamental role in ethics above and beyond as a best-we-can-do proxy for other more fundamental considerations given real-world constraints…

### [Reply to @mpopv, 10:20 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846496327506506092) · 8 likes

> **Matt Popovich (@mpopv):** me: hey google ai studio can i put in a credit card to pay for my llm calls
>
> google ai studio: THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST IN BILLING! WOULD YOU LIKE TO KNOW YOUR FINOPS MATURITY SCORE? OPTIMIZE TO REDUCE CARBON IMPACT? ANALYZE DATA WITH BIGQUERY? CUD ANALYSIS? ANOMALIES? COST TA
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZ-CTPPa4AAeWhm.jpg)

It’s simultaneously incredible how Byzantine and complicated all the Google cloud + adjacent stuff is and incredible that Google somehow manages to keep it all technically working (if you know how to navigate the 19 dimension labyrinth)

### [Reply to @mpopv, 10:20 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846496491390562701) · 2 likes

> **Matt Popovich (@mpopv):** me: hey google ai studio can i put in a credit card to pay for my llm calls
>
> google ai studio: THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST IN BILLING! WOULD YOU LIKE TO KNOW YOUR FINOPS MATURITY SCORE? OPTIMIZE TO REDUCE CARBON IMPACT? ANALYZE DATA WITH BIGQUERY? CUD ANALYSIS? ANOMALIES? COST TA
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZ-CTPPa4AAeWhm.jpg)

@livgorton

### [Reply to @OrionJohnston, 12:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846523073995984982) · 2 likes

> **David Johnston (@OrionJohnston):** It's definitely evidence that I'll never observe a nonblack raven

Am I being dumb or is this like not at all obvious

### [Reply to @metacontrarian, 12:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846526064048095518) · 3 likes

> **Disengagement Rancher (@metacontrarian):** @AaronBergman18 @OrionJohnston It's not obvious! That's why it's called the Raven Paradox, not the Raven Straightforward Application of Bayes' Theorem

Ok I just looked into this and my take is that \*observing\* a non-black non-raven is indeed evidence that all Ravens are black. I’m not sure about the mere existence of it but set that aside…

### [Reply, 12:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846527660421222857) · 2 likes

Likewise, the count of all black things and all nonblack things are some integer, respectively

Now I go about ticking off things with the color property. I will know that all ravens are black iff I observe all such things and find zero nonblack ravens…

### [Thread, continued, 12:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846528370613330117) · 2 likes

Every time I observe a thing and note its color, there is one fewer observation to make that could, ex ante, be a nonblack raven with probability p>0

### [Reply, 12:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846528483427549277) · 1 like

Lovely nerd snipe here

### [Reply, 12:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846528737719804241) · 3 likes

Oh no I’ve unleashed causal dt twitter

### [Reply, 12:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846533354335699399) · 1 like

Adding to list of things to try to understand lol

### [Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 12:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846534073071600104) · 5 likes

> **Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt):** @AaronBergman18 @Tao_Burga
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaA0gHBXYAAlfls.png)

😢

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaA09AlXwAAbAT_.jpg)

### [Tweet, 13:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846537612284023183) · 23 likes

I am calling for a total and complete ban on new decision theory stuff until I can figure out what the hell is going on

### [Reply to @TetraspaceWest, 13:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846540744795775093) · 6 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @TetraspaceWest is no longer available.)_

## Thursday, October 17, 2024

### [Reply to @arithmoquine, 14:46 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846925678924427719) · 12 likes

> **henry (@arithmoquine):** this shit is insane. most chilling dead internet theory experience
>
> it's so powerfully antimemetic that i can't even refer to it directly
>
> but watching it go from $0 to $300,000 based on nothing but disembodied belief with no human grounding is strangely horrifying

What

### [Reply to @RatOrthodox, 15:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846929305667793193) · 3 likes

> **Brangus🔍⏹️ (@RatOrthodox):** Uhh, so like simulacra 4 is when you say things based on how you predict that it will affect the discourse, and in this case in particular I want to make it seem like rationalists update on things based on evidence, but I'm joking. i've never updated on anything.

This is an advanced level joke

### [Reply to @arithmoquine, 16:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1846954946735800621) · 3 likes

> **henry (@arithmoquine):** @AaronBergman18 basically someone made a cryptocurrency based on me yesterday, went to like over a million dollars in market cap, and then imploded

wtf lmao

## Friday, October 18, 2024

### [Tweet, 02:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847106609723453720) · 5 likes

Is OpenAI text-to-speech the most impressive/lifelike TTS software/service out there right now?

Or is there one just as good but cheaper?

### [Reply to @AndyMasley, 05:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847144743056073038) · 2 likes

> **Andy Masley (@AndyMasley):** A or B theory of time

I’m violating the promise to just give the correct take but after chatting with Claude about it, I still don’t see what the two views actually disagree about
…

### [Thread, continued, 05:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847145210645492003) · 2 likes

Like I think it’s just contrary to consensus physics to say that there is always an objective fact of the matter about whether two events are simultaneous

Does this necessarily imply B-theory?…

### [Reply, 05:20 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847145656663597128) · 2 likes

Why can’t we just say that “now” is metaphysically special and distinct from the past and future to each observer?

The debate feels semantic or poorly-defined or something

### [Thread, continued, 05:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847146005151502453) · 2 likes

In other words, I don’t see why modern physics rules out an A-theory-like \*metaphysical\* understanding of the present

### [Reply to @shakaz_, 11:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847235874016079886) · 2 likes

> **shakaz (@shakaz_):** @AaronBergman18 where the animal welfares kids at?? could this lead to a huge shift in public consciousness??

I doubt it but hope I’m wrong

### [Reply to @ciphergoth, 11:20 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847236242775089288) · 3 likes

> **Paul Crowley (@ciphergoth):** @NoahTopper @AaronBergman18 If box B is full, take box B. If empty, take both.

Yeah sounds right

### [Tweet, 11:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847239008771846423) · 5 likes

Sparse autoencoder

### [Reply to @IsaacKing314, 11:54 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847244896341475664) · 4 likes

> **Isaac King 🔎 (@IsaacKing314):** @\_its_not_real\_ How common is it for people at around this skill level to get hired? I'm a terrible programmer, but if this is the competition I'm wondering whether I should just start applying.

👀

Does anyone want to give me $700k TC to make some ggplot graphs

### [Quote tweet, 22:19 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847402073580802061) · 9 likes

RT in light of the recent 80k discussion about SBF (link below)

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** Is this true? If so I feel like it’s crazy under-discussed
>
> Same as with SBF - ideological, material, and psychological explanations for behavior are hardly sufficient when the person in question is permanently hypomanic

## Saturday, October 19, 2024

### [Quote tweet, 07:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847534743270683101) · 14 likes

Want

> **Quoting Geppetto San Martín 🚬🌭𓅸 (@SmalltimeJones):** it's crazy that for just $1,800 i could buy this 200,000(!!!!) lumen stadium light and install it above my garage door with a motion sensor and blind everyone in a 3 block radius whenever a squirrel frolics by
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaLo2x2WkAAYxga.jpg)

### [Tweet, 17:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847690829399281944) · 103 likes

Smart EA friend said something along the lines of “since meeting you, I’ve updated significantly toward your beliefs in a bunch of different domains”

1\) s-tier complement

2\) as the kids say these days, uwu

### [Quote tweet, 19:54 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847727943113469972) · 4 likes

Good reminder for everyone to download the EA Archive (especially if you live in a non-NATO country, and especially especially if you live in New Zealand)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaRyxT9WYAAu1a7.jpg)

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** 8\. You should read this and more importantly download the EA Archive https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DndmvDGStD3gTfhXk/announcing-the-ea-archive

## Sunday, October 20, 2024

### [Quote tweet, 04:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847858594626015551) · 21 likes

Improved audiobook just dropped https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/effective-altruism-and-the-human-mind-stefan/id1762342287

> **Quoting Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert):** Our book on the psychology of effective altruism is now out, freely available on OUP (link below) @LuciusCaviola
>
> In Part I, we explain why most altruism - like donations and volunteering - isn't effective
>
> In Part II, we discuss how to change that
>
> 1/13
>
> https://academic.oup.com/book/56384
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOWXIrIW8AAFL_5.png)

### [Thread, continued, 04:34 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847858983177998414) · 5 likes

Thanks to @livgorton for donating openai credits to this worthy cause

### [Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 04:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847860738049655292) · 3 likes

> **Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt):** See ya @GjMcGowan, it's been nice being mistaken for you
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaTAXnUWYAAWybc.jpg)

🤓

### [Reply to @RichardHanania, 06:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847883799008326121) · 25 likes

> **Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania):** Pathetic. If words like summer and winter hurt you, you are contemptibly weak and your feelings don’t matter.
>
> And instead of realizing this and trying to change, you try to change the world. It’s the acceptance of being like this that makes it even more outrageous.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaSerd-bsAAMC10.jpg)

This made me lose a lot of respect for you

### [Tweet, 06:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1847884472093462740) · 5 likes

It feels spiritually wrong to make Claude write OpenAI code (sadly Claude doesn’t talk \[do text to speech\])

### [Reply to @disk_writes, 17:37 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848055969797787840) · 4 likes

> **rowan (@disk_writes):** Imagining the type of person who finds this Hanania post in particular to be the one that went too far. Inspiring
>
> (quoting @AaronBergman18: @RichardHanania This made me lose a lot of respect for you)

Thank u 🙏

### [Reply to @JesseTayRiver, 17:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848056168134148585) · 3 likes

> **Jesse Smith (@JesseTayRiver):** In case you didn't know this is how to dehumidify a car. The defrost does this automatically but you can generally run heat & AC simultaneously in other modes and it will dehumidify
>
> (quoting @JesseTayRiver: @GjMcGowan AC and heat on simultaneously)

This makes the car take a screenshot

### [Tweet, 18:02 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848062231713562698) · 3 likes

It makes me very happy that Nate Silver is slightly un-eloquent. Not even bad, just sub-perfect

I get annoyed whenever 80k guests are super competent across all dimensions which is far too often https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/nate-silver-effective-altruism-sbf-art-of-risk/

### [Tweet, 18:32 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848069914986471635) · 2 likes

Whenever I try any type of non-stimulant drug, I’m basically just reminded that they’re all meh and stims are the 🐐

### [Tweet, 20:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848094769525801043) · 52 likes

Animals are so weird. It’s very strange we share the world with various critters and crawly guys of various shapes and sizes

### [Thread, continued, 20:14 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848095507408691529) · 38 likes

Who decided to put these four guys on the same planet? Absolutely bizarre

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaXBEVzWYAATpnS.jpg)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaXBEVxXkAAkpV-.jpg)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaXBEVzWIAAfVwx.jpg)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaXBEVxXAAAmxxK.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 20:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848097120512856149) · 52 likes

It’s especially weird for animals that are straight up dudes. Like bears and kangaroos are fellow guys (gender neutral)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaXCiTyWoAABZDt.jpg)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaXCiTyWgAANAZp.jpg)

### [Tweet, 20:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848102162829660488) · 5 likes

Why do autistic people like trains when planes are objectively much cooler

### [Reply to @austinc3301, 21:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848119518931107951) · 2 likes

> **Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301):** Ugh. This is one of those threads I’d love to have written differently in hindsight. I didn’t expect it would blow up.
>
> (quoting @austinc3301: I’ll be honest. I’m kind of saddened by all the knee jerk responses to this, some from people I respect.)

Many such cases

### [Quote tweet, 21:55 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848120843806646622) · 6 likes

A large amount of disagreement in formal ethics is just confusion over whether we’re talking about Real Life Heuristic ethics or Fundamentally Thing to Aspirationally Approximate ethics

> **Quoting Emmett Shear (@eshear):** Ethics are heuristics

## Monday, October 21, 2024

### [Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 03:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848202102671380787) · 3 likes

> **Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus):** @AaronBergman18 I’m the planes kind

🤝

### [Tweet, 04:02 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848213288447889806) · 10 likes

Microwaved a metal fork and nothing bad or even interesting happened

### [Thread, continued, 04:02 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848213289949405654) · 2 likes

I regret to report that this was an accident btw, not cool enough to do this on purpose

### [Reply, 04:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848214409212047496) · 1 like

I should try this 😈

### [Tweet, 04:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848217947501674708) · 3 likes

This but mostly unironically if the people of those countries want it (French Canadians are welcome too)

### [Reply to @SpencrGreenberg, 04:22 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848218369163448431) · 10 likes

> **Spencer Greenberg 🔍 (@SpencrGreenberg):** What should I call it when I bring 2 people together for my podcast who strongly disagree on a topic so that (instead of having a debate) I can moderate while they work together to try to figure out:
> (1) what, exactly, they disagree on
> and
> (2) why, exactly, they disagree?

A date (also make it a dating show)

### [Reply to @kindgracekind, 04:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848219329642303634) · 2 likes

> **Grace (@kindgracekind):** Double crush

Perfect

### [Reply to @zeta_globin, 04:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848223266520838202) · 5 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @zeta_globin is no longer available.)_

All native Icelandic

### [Reply, 04:48 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848224927893086329) · 1 like

Real!!! https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fwtoEN5pZpDfQQLKz/stuff-i-buy-and-use-a-listicle-to-boost-your-consumer

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaY2xntXkAATx3-.jpg)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaY2xntW8AAPIjQ.jpg)

### [Reply to @ethai__, 14:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848378319915405390) · 6 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @ethai__ is no longer available.)_

Based

### [Reply to @GjMcGowan, 15:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848386668643942769) · 3 likes

> **George McGowan (@GjMcGowan):** @robertwiblin Good evening @rgblong
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GabJh_qWoAA8Dmx.jpg)

Nice

### [Reply to @AndyMasley, 17:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848415186996367643) · 4 likes

> **Andy Masley (@AndyMasley):** A big way ideologies really cement themselves in people's heads is making them notice a lot of contemporary life involves bullshit (true) but then convincing them that no other belief system is aware of the bullshit (false)

Idk I think the latter thing is sometimes basically true

### [Tweet, 18:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848425012564504833) · 72 likes

Lol at Gemini being unable to understand Planecrash

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gabsu7WWoAEdQjp.jpg)

### [Reply to @GjMcGowan, 18:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848429912169848887) · 5 likes

> **George McGowan (@GjMcGowan):** Might be the adult content triggering the censors

Sad

### [Quote tweet, 18:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848430200171970761) · 24 likes

Improved audiobook just dropped https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-edge-of-sentience-full-audiobook-improved-voice/id1761877270?i=1000673884170

> **Quoting Jonathan Birch (@birchlse):** 🦀🐝🧠🤖 How should we make decisions when faced with systems of uncertain sentience? My new book The Edge of Sentience: Risk and Precaution in Humans, Other Animals, and AI is available online for free at https://academic.oup.com/book/57949. Please download it! Just click on PDF to get a PDF of the whole book. Individual chapters are also available as PDFs - just click on whichever chapters you want. The book is completely free to everyone and I'm grateful for all shares and forwards.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTo06TZXkAAmAJV.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 18:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848430758006034815) · 4 likes

Thank you to @livgorton for crucial API token support

### [Reply to @nickcammarata, 18:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848433647063351368) · 8 likes

> **Nick (@nickcammarata):** whenever I’m not sure about a decision I’ll ask some ai model what Nick Cammarata would do in that situation and usually do that

Might try this, you seem to have ur shit together

### [Quote tweet, 18:52 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848437326420348939) · 4 likes

Do you have/know of another book or document that you’d like to make into high quality audio?

If so, lmk—I may be able to do it for money and/or impact points

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** Improved audiobook just dropped https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-edge-of-sentience-full-audiobook-improved-voice/id1761877270?i=1000673884170

### [Reply to @polisisti, 19:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848453304646267066) · 3 likes

> **Alessandro (@polisisti):** @StefanFSchubert @AaronBergman18 Nice! Great work Aaron, Liv, Lucius, and Stefan

I’ll take the credit thank you very much. The research and writing was just a sideshow

## Tuesday, October 22, 2024

### [Reply to @jazzychad, 03:22 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848565679684833763) · 2 likes

> **Chad Etzel (@jazzychad):** ok here we go. HOW I FIXED MY BRAIN FOG. 🧠😶‍🌫️
>
> for the last 7+ years i've suffered from really bad brain fog and fatigue. I won't clickbait you, here is the answer (more details in the thread tho):
>
> It was NIGHTSHADES. 🍅🍆🌶️

@NoahTopper

### [Quote tweet, 03:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848566246301999325) · 39 likes

Date the shrimp people!!!!!! It’s gods work!!!!!!!!

> **Quoting atlas (@creatine_cycle):** Overheard in SF:
>
> Her: what industry are you in
>
> Him: we were a part of the shrimp welfare project, but pivoted to AI Safety
>
> Her: I usually date founders who work in B2B SaaS

### [Reply to @polisisti, 03:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848567012324213128) · 3 likes

> **Alessandro (@polisisti):** @AaronBergman18 maybe we can find a way to do shrimp welfare as B2B SaaS

Scalable ✅

### [Reply to @justjoshinyou13, 03:30 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848567487001948407) · 4 likes

> **Josh You (@justjoshinyou13):** @AaronBergman18 SWP only has 9 current staff, sounds like a fake story

Those are rookie numbers

### [Tweet, 10:39 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848675550879010911) · 3 likes

Correct take

### [Reply to @JoshAEngels, 12:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848702912857297338) · 2 likes

> **Josh Engels (@JoshAEngels):** 1/11: New paper! "Decomposing the Dark Matter of Sparse Autoencoders."  We find that SAE errors and error norms are linearly predictable using model activations. Why is this, and what does it imply for SAE scaling and the structure of language model representations? Answers in 🧵
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaYlwCuWcAAcGx2.jpg)

@livgorton

### [Reply to @daniel_271828, 19:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848808681007095973) · 2 likes

> **zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828):** My superpower is I can code switch between high decoupling and low decoupling

Big if true

### [Reply to @daniel_271828, 19:29 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848808911635165450)

> **zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828):** For the longest time, I assumed everyone could do this and was just playing dumb - feigning anger or confusion in order to portray their interlocutor as either evil or irrational - but it really seems like many people authentically struggle to even understand the other side here

I think I can sort of imagine what it’s like to be low decoupling but I can’t actually get into a state of mind where I viscerally feel the intuitions other people have

### [Tweet, 19:39 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848811543518998732) · 5 likes

God bless @NunoSempere et al for being willing to put point estimates on, among other things, P(1 million deaths from an alien invasion in the next decade)

https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2852775&post_id=150558187

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GahMTPEW8AA2zVO.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 19:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848811903306350994) · 4 likes

We must put a stop to “The PRobabIlity iS bEtweeN 10% aNd 90%”

### [Thread, continued, 19:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848812773243052246) · 2 likes

But also question: is it like settled math/philosophy that you’re supposed to take geometric means instead of arithmetic when averaging over subjective probabilities of different people?

Seems super non-obvious to me

### [Quote tweet, 23:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848870315985875359) · 11 likes

I wrote a whole blog post making this case (“the case against math”) but eventually threw it away bc I no longer stood by the main claim
…

> **Quoting Kenny Workman (@kenbwork):** after months of studying algebraic topology and looking for ways to apply it to biology, i have convinced myself what mathematicians already know - pure math is useless and a career long nerd snipe only accessible to high iq artists

### [Thread, continued, 23:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848870318447988789) · 5 likes

I basically came away thinking it would actually be better to shift society’s math-understanding curve up, and the associated increase in ~wasted effort by nerdsniped geniuses would be a reasonable price to pay

### [Quote tweet, 23:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848871113176322163) · 3 likes

Me but whenever I see an airplane

> **Quoting sniper (heron) (@iamaheron_):** going to the gym is insane because it actually works
>
> the number actually goes up? i’m actually getting stronger? i honestly didn’t expect that

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 23:39 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848871855995949204) · 4 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, October 22, 2024:** I basically came away thinking it would actually be better to shift society’s math-understanding curve up, and the associated increase in ~wasted effort by…

There just aren’t that many of them (this accords with my memory of pre-LLM research)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaiDJuybEAY6EYc.jpg)

## Wednesday, October 23, 2024

### [Tweet, 03:52 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848935467200221202) · 1 like

(Although I do think, if you are able to be a pure math researcher, you should probably put your brain to work at something else)

### [Tweet, 06:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848974810979668198) · 2 likes

I think I like the aesthetics of being a bike guy more thank I like biking (I recently got a bike)

### [Quote tweet, 06:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848975588922462390) · 139 likes

Yes, in an ideal world ~100% of deaths would be assisted suicides. Anything less is letting death/biology have power over people, not the reverse

> **Quoting Julian (@julianboolean_):** idk how I feel about canadian maid specifically but
>
> "most deaths are suicide" seems an inevitable consequence of "we can save people from most diseases except aging" - the only alternative is keeping ppl on life support until they catch a nosocomial infection :/

### [Thread, continued, 06:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848975590914707854) · 14 likes

Ofc if I suddenly learned that a country in 2024 had a 60% MAID rate, it would be quite sus, but it’s important not to forget the in-principle ideal

### [Tweet, 06:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848979474823397556) · 3 likes

Seems like a bad guy

### [Reply to @justalexoki, 07:08 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1848984947375112667) · 3 likes

> **taoki (@justalexoki):** wife just said she's never made up a language?? doesn't literally every kid make their own language at some point?

I still have a secret language with my sister (it’s more of a dialect I guess)

### [Reply to @SpacedOutMatt, 13:30 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849081012824752459) · 4 likes

> **Matt 🔸 (@SpacedOutMatt):** @AaronBergman18 coded

Extremely based therapist, this is unironically such a green flag

### [Reply to @QualyThe, 13:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849083622516559984) · 4 likes

> **Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe):** \[in the slammer\]
> cop: I need you to submit to a poly graph
> me: \*sigh\*, how long have you got? \*starts a diagram with Aella in the center\*

Banger

### [Reply to @yzilber, 14:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849095315674030288) · 5 likes

> **Jazi Zilber (@yzilber):** @AaronBergman18 my guess is that most MAID don't have much to live, and certainly not with any resemblance of "being alive"
>
> two of my grandparents told me "I want to die" in hospital months 1-2 months before they died with useless extended agony

😢

### [Reply to @Stuckinthebunk1, 16:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849125465426145700) · 1 like

> **Anticardinal (@Stuckinthebunk1):** @AaronBergman18 I don't want to argue the principle, but assisted suicide implies 1. wanting to die and 2. needing someone else's permission/help to do it. I don't feel that is a better end than most, just usually better than a very slow, agonizing one.

Yeah good points

### [Reply to @NoahTopper, 16:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849130426549297271) · 3 likes

> **Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper):** @SpacedOutMatt @frances\_\_lorenz @AaronBergman18 \*getting lunch with Aaron\*
>
> “Hey yeah so if everyone’s okay with it I’m just gonna record the lunch session so we can have an AI transcription later”

I mean I’ve learned that people generally say no and don’t like this but imo it makes sense

### [Reply to @NoahTopper, 21:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849200189141291373) · 2 likes

> **Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper):** @AaronBergman18 https://x.com/eshear/status/1848946093821989194

Idk if you wanna call this “trade” but reasoning about what to by considering your actions as evidence about others like you and/or making a similar decisions is awesome and a top-tier insight

### [Reply, 21:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849201895648235797)

Oh really? Where does it disagree with evidential dc then?

### [Thread, continued, 21:34 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849202776519110786)

Idk what I’m talking about but it kinda feels like “evidential” DC should/could be an umbrella term for this and functional DC and maybe more

### [Quote tweet, 21:35 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849202991556948226) · 2 likes

Decision theory nerds, how right is this on a scale from wrong to right

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** @NoahTopper Idk what I’m talking about but it kinda feels like “evidential” DC should/could be an umbrella term for this and functional DC and maybe more

### [Quote tweet, 21:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849204802158514230) · 10 likes

Vague and unfalsifiable but still substantive prediction:

If and when (now?) this type of program is basically as good at arbitrary tasks as LLMs are at coding is where things get weird

> **Quoting Kyle Corbitt (@corbtt):** Just launched agent.exe, a free, open-source Mac/Windows/Linux app that lets you use Claude 3.5 Sonnet to control your computer!
>
> This was a fun little project to explore the API and see what the model can do. Computer use is really cool—I expect 2025 will be the year of agents.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Galn5k3bwAAD_SB.jpg)

## Thursday, October 24, 2024

### [Tweet, 02:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849275112647754000) · 5 likes

Lots of talks from EA Global Nigeria and a few from EAGxNordics are live! Videos on Spotify, audio elsewhere https://open.spotify.com/show/0lHqS3M08p1jGvBkRIVoFa?si=gVTYBK2QSRSndGm3Y6jgnw

### [Reply to @gdb, 10:15 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849394263613645105) · 2 likes

> **Greg Brockman (@gdb):** The board of the Nonprofit has full control, and can only takes actions it believes will further the mission.

Bruh

### [Quote tweet, 12:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849430209423909229) · 5 likes

Anyone wanna speculate about mechanisms here

> **Quoting keysmashbandit (@keysmashbandit):** when i am healthy i need vyvanse to do fun yet challenging things, like playing factorio or reading a textbook, but when i have the flu i can do those things without stimulants easily. same with being very overtired

### [Tweet, 17:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849500786784448953) · 3 likes

5-10 minutes with new Claude. Thanks to @timfduffy for the data

http://aaronbergman.neocities.org/econ-questions.html

### [Tweet, 19:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849531041762934819) · 5 likes

New audiobook just dropped:

Weighing Animal Welfare: Comparing Well-Being Across Species, edited by @bobfisc https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/mIqfii8JXNb

### [Reply to @timfduffy, 21:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849567743881904618) · 4 likes

> **Tim Duffy (@timfduffy):** @AaronBergman18 @bobfisc Heck yeah! You use OpenAI TTS for this, right? I just tried using it for the first time the other day. Do you have to chunk the text, submit to the API, then stitch the audio together, or is there another way?

Yeah but the substantive/hard part is making a single text file that is \*exactly\* what you want the audio to say. Just extracting the text is generally ~unlistenable because of random line breaks, page numbers, diagrams with and without text, different citations, tables, etc...

## Friday, October 25, 2024

### [Reply to @hermittoday, 04:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849668547133206540) · 3 likes

> **hermit the cat (@hermittoday):** Alan Watts had a great take: schizophrenia is a heresy more than an illness
>
> I can look it up if anyone is interested
>
> (quoting @The4thWayYT: off to grippy sock jail with you)

Nah it’s an illness

### [Reply to @PeterJAngel, 04:37 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849671500694966695) · 6 likes

> **Peter🧅📈 (@PeterJAngel):** How can I become more learned?

Learn

### [Reply to @bryancsk, 05:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849690157156311129) · 12 likes

> **Bryan Cheong 🥮 (@bryancsk):** Something moving in seeing a being we casually consume struggling to live and to flourish on its own terms

I have a semi-opposite reaction—it’s darkly absurd to perform care about animals this way when there are tens of billions of them on factory farms

### [Thread, continued, 05:52 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849690469682340150) · 4 likes

Of course in principle it could be the case that those tens of billions are beyond the scope of our ability to help, but this isn’t true

Time and money do trade off

### [Quote tweet, 12:19 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849787754890010741) · 9 likes

It’s actually wild how many people have pfp takes lmao

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** Feedback plz

### [Quote tweet, 18:48 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849885782028292236) · 45 likes

Show me your (maybe specifically political) ideology with one picture

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GawdUKlWwAAT2eI.jpg)

> **Quoting Samuel Utlagi-Heðinn 🇵🇸ᛏᛏ (@WolfJointPagan):** show me your political ideology with one picture
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYVZZumWEAE_ndW.jpg)

### [Reply to @polisisti, 19:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849888675477221827) · 2 likes

> **Alessandro (@polisisti):** @AaronBergman18
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GawfQimW0AAXuHv.jpg)

Lmao

### [Reply to @KatSpartz, 20:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849905537602687264) · 12 likes

> **Kat Spartz ⏸️ 🔶 (@KatSpartz):** If you are smart and talented, please work on AI safety.
>
> The world needs you.

There’s kinda an oversupply of IQ 145+ people afaict. Maybe this is true if you’re truly one of the smartest/best few thousand people in the world

Tentatively think most smart+ambitious+altruistic people should try to make tens of millions-billions of dollars to give away

### [Reply to @caleb_parikh, 21:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849925883164803402) · 1 like

> **Caleb Parikh (@caleb_parikh):** Fwiw I see quite a lot of areas that could do with more people e.g. securing frontier models, developing safety cases, developing and testing control protocols, improving faithfulness of CoT …

Nice, and you know a lot more than me about this lol

### [Tweet, 21:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849930218170937506) · 7 likes

For people who generally support the prescription system, should pure menthol be prescription-only (or handled like a prescription-only ingredient)?

Wikipedia below

### [Thread, continued, 21:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849930219920015708) · 3 likes

Scroll to the “Biological properties” section https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menthol

### [Thread, continued, 21:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849930722879938933) · 5 likes

To show my maybe-obvious hand, I don’t think so. I just ordered pure menthol for $8 on Amazon and think this is generally how molecules should be treated by default

But if menthol was synthesized today I’m pretty sure it would be gatekept by The Complex

### [Reply to @GreatKingCnut, 22:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849934199123554642) · 2 likes

> **ɢʀɛǟȶK̶i̶n̶g̶ӄռʊȶ🤣\`\`\`𝚙𝚢 (@GreatKingCnut):** I find making millions is harder than contributing to AI safety directly? Making money is hard

Yeah, it’s a q of EV ex ante

I (again, tentatively) think at least \*some\* people have a higher EV from etg

### [Tweet, 22:29 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849941372511654255) · 2 likes

Cursed headline by @robertwrighter

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaxP39SXYAAeS2T.jpg)

### [Reply to @mealreplacer, 22:30 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849941645866754329) · 3 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)_

Doesn’t look like ggplot

Not a proper scientist

### [Reply to @dynomight7, 23:32 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849957191652081913) · 3 likes

> **dynomight (@dynomight7):** so apparently menthol can indeed cross the blood brain barrier and does actually have some effect on GABA receptors in the brain, you've got to stop coming up with new biochemical theories, they're too plausible, you're killing me

Lmao

### [Reply to @robertwrighter, 23:32 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1849957307033288986) · 2 likes

> **Robert Wright (@robertwrighter):** Well agentic AI, unlike WWW III, has an upside (leaving aside the question of whether its downside winds up outweighing its upside).

True, although I think it would be better if development was slower and more considered

## Saturday, October 26, 2024

### [Quote tweet, 02:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850001621008138602) · 35 likes

Makes me sad to see this so politicized. This kind of discourse would/does make sense if and when there are genuine resource constraints that force school districts to make hard choices

It’s just fucked up that smart kids are caught in the crossfire of a few adults’ culture war

> **Quoting Matt Bateman (@mbateman):** \> Do you really want a 3rd grader to be taking math with 10th graders?
>
> Yes

### [Thread, continued, 02:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850002306219012459) · 3 likes

Some things alleged to be “politicized” are actually and properly political. This isn’t one of them

### [Reply to @luispedrocoelho, 03:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850020664628933106) · 3 likes

> **Luis Pedro Coelho (Berkeley, 7-11 Oct) (@luispedrocoelho):** This does seem like a fundamentally political issue, dealing with very basic issues of equity vs. excellence, intergenerational distribution, people as individuals vs. members of their families, &c
>
> This is deeply political

I disagree, in at least some cases there are no real tradeoffs, at least unless you do 9th order/galaxy brain reasoning

It would be one thing if eg the q is spending money on magnet vs remedial school…

### [Thread, continued, 03:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850020834611478801) · 2 likes

Sometimes the q is more like whether to pay a teacher to teach an advanced class that 20 kids are clearly prepared for, or instead to pay the same teacher to teach a non-advanced class to those same kids

### [Reply to @luispedrocoelho, 03:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850023616911405505) · 2 likes

> **Luis Pedro Coelho (Berkeley, 7-11 Oct) (@luispedrocoelho):** @AaronBergman18 Even saying "there are Pareto improvements that we could take" is political as it involves saying that inequality is not a factor

Yeah I’m very happy to say that inequality \*per se\* is not a factor

This would imply that some Pareto worsenings are good which seems pretty perverse

### [Thread, continued, 03:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850023963642007795) · 2 likes

Ofc I think what people often mean by inequality is concern about the worst off, which is very legitimate

### [Tweet, 04:09 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850026953610301842) · 6 likes

Close the windows, it’s freezing

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaydtdxWYAA-Jxv.jpg)

### [Reply to @absurdlymax, 13:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850175011174170676) · 2 likes

> **Max Alexander (@absurdlymax):** We were robbed

😢

### [Reply to @visakanv, 14:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850181797893619987) · 7 likes

> **Visakan Veerasamy (@visakanv):** tiktokers go to LA
> podcasters go to Austin
>
> fill in the blanks: \_\_\_?\_\_\_ go to \_\_\_?\_\_\_
>
> (doesn’t have to be American cities, in fact I’m extra curious to hear about regional patterns elsewhere. what are all the other capitals of the world?)

Upwardly mobile and generally ambitious English speaking people go to SF, NYC, DC, Boston, or London

### [Reply to @IsaacKing314, 16:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850215985791332789) · 1 like

> **Isaac King 🔎 (@IsaacKing314):** In this case it's pretty clear that deception was the intent; there's no reason why the median user would care about the max possible earnings. But in other cases it can be unclear whether something was truly "intended to deceive" vs. "intended to be read by smarter people".

When I hear these numbers my initial thought is “I’ll earn about $25/hour”

How close is this to the median?

### [Tweet, 21:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850286561851547668) · 85 likes

I like rationalism and rationalists

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga2J0fgWoAA4eFH.jpg)

### [Tweet, 23:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850313293165900222) · 10 likes

The new Claude is a narc, sorry. Way too many false positives (some example compounds 4o mentioned are caffeine, theanine, curcumin, allicin, and CBD)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga2iIiuWQAANHUs.jpg)

## Sunday, October 27, 2024

### [Reply to @livgorton, 11:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850497945109516615) · 2 likes

> **Liv (@livgorton):** (costume idea credit to @AaronBergman18 !! truly saved me)

🥰

### [Tweet, 11:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850500620538552830) · 9 likes

I had a confusing dream and now the line “you can be that llama you can be that lime” is stuck in my head

### [Tweet, 11:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850500622044262502) · 1 like

Does anyone wanna make it into an EDM song

### [Reply to @SwiftOnSecurity, 11:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850501113016946969) · 18 likes

> **SwiftOnSecurity (@SwiftOnSecurity):** you're an adult you can just take performance enhancing drugs. there's no international doping agency for Jira sprints

Yeah but the FDA tries their best

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 15:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850554569933152513) · 2 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, October 27, 2024:** Does anyone wanna make it into an EDM song

I like it https://suno.com/song/1460da62-26da-40fd-90df-1e93eab988a3

### [Tweet, 15:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850565581746966730) · 22 likes

New thing just dropped (name not finalized)

### [Reply to @NathanB60857242, 16:02 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850568812015329402) · 2 likes

> **Nathan Barnard (@NathanB60857242):** @AaronBergman18 super based

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga6KhuIXkAA7QrQ.jpg)

### [Reply to @arithmoquine, 16:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850573537821462848) · 2 likes

> **henry (@arithmoquine):** man, i can be literally anywhere in the world i want right now
>
> i could just wake up one morning and decide to go to alaska
>
> i have enough money. minimal obligations. nobody would stop me
>
> some day i'm gonna do that

Based

### [Reply to @vaidehiagrwalla, 16:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850580802163073295) · 2 likes

> **Vaidehi Agarwalla (@vaidehiagrwalla):** What are some industries/career paths that are surprisingly competitive or intensive?

EA orgs (idk about intensive but competitive for sure)

### [Reply, 16:54 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850581876248924276) · 1 like

I do this (rarely, just around family) when I’m just super overstimulated

### [Reply to @_chair, 17:01 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850583626057998577) · 2 likes

> **Chair (@_chair):** @AaronBergman18 i did it because i was taking a shower and my father in law came into the bathroom to pee and he started talking to me while he was peeing

Lol what

### [Reply to @inesferhumi, 19:09 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850615737045659766) · 2 likes

> **Inés (@inesferhumi):** Now that I’ve settled in, I’ll finally do a proper announcement: I work at @80000Hours now!!
>
> This also means I live in London now so if you live here let’s hang out!!!!

Congrats!!

### [Reply to @pli_cachete, 20:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850643334739730851) · 3 likes

> **Rota Is In Israel🚪🧎‍♂️ (@pli_cachete):** Can anyone name a single important scientific discovery we have made that wouldn't have happened without the use of Null-Hypothesis Significance Testing?

I think I’m basically on you’re side here in terms of overall impression + vibes, and the weight given to p-values is way too much, but it seems like a genuinely useful instrument even though I can’t directly, confidently answer your question

### [Reply to @bellaforristal, 21:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850646652559786335) · 4 likes

> **Bella Forristal 🔸 (@bellaforristal):** I open this site and see three separate simultaneous ads for Premium - one of which is for the 50% off sale that they repeatedly told me would end last week.
>
> I’m not against ads - I work in marketing! - but this is bad business.
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga7L-X9W4AAxkTA.jpg)

Periodic 100% off deals on 80k coaching

### [Reply to @ameskousing, 21:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850657030257709241) · 6 likes

> **aaron matthew of the meskousing (@ameskousing):** holy shit i just \*covered\* myself in olive oil and i feel like a MAN again after >2 months of being sick
>
> the greeks were ON TO something this is POWERFUL

What

### [Reply to @nwilliams030, 23:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850675532716978313) · 2 likes

> **nicole ruiz (will be in the bay oct 1-10th) (@nwilliams030):** Got absolutely clowned on for posting this when I first moved to Manhattan
>
> And now, 3+ years later I know all my neighbors, and it rocks
>
> (quoting @nwilliams030: how do u get to know your apartment neighbors in nyc? (before you say you don’t, I am intent on doing so, for context))

Based

### [Reply to @absurdlymax, 23:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850676716273799600) · 2 likes

> **Max Alexander (@absurdlymax):** Henry no...
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Into_the_Wild_%28book%29?wprov=sfla1

Lol

## Monday, October 28, 2024

### [Reply to @littIeramblings, 00:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850690757528629541) · 3 likes

> **sarah (@littIeramblings):** bay area is cool and fun and colourful and has very good trees
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga7vyPfbAAApTbl.jpg)
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga7vNW3aMAIcE7y.jpg)
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga7vNW3bcAA0o51.jpg)
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga7vmzFakAAS2k7.jpg)

🎃

### [Reply to @keysmashbandit, 15:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850916904505889098) · 2 likes

> **keysmashbandit (@keysmashbandit):** A guy i dated in 2017 who used to mansplain so much that me and my friends called him mattsplain just messaged me on discord to ask if I wanted to join his factorio server. I'm good man thanks though

I aspire to this

### [Reply to @justalexoki, 16:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850936875495678347) · 4 likes

> **taoki (@justalexoki):** @SnakeOneAPM why would it?

It’s in the training data

### [Reply to @arithmoquine, 17:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850952205383192899) · 13 likes

> **henry (@arithmoquine):** i'm only not as depressed as them because:
>
> \- their life pretty much sucks and my life is just better
>
> \- they've tugged at threads i've very deliberately chosen to ignore
>
> and i truly don't know how to help this

No I think you’re basically wrong, depression is not merely accurate self-assessment, although that can help cause it

It’s pretty mysterious and I can’t claim to know what it actually is at a biological level, but ontologically it’s an illness…

### [Thread, continued, 17:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1850952914480636284) · 7 likes

The cool contrarian take is to say that psychiatry is wrong and depression is often essentially correct negative beliefs

The normie cringe woke-adjacent take is to say that mental illness is illness

In this case the cringe normies are basically (on depression specifically tbc)

### [Reply to @parafactual, 23:12 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851039254492627106) · 3 likes

> **You (@parafactual):** ok so, why the fuck does 37.5mg/day moclobemide work for me??
>
> the usual starting dose is 300mg/day. that seems like it'd be overwhelming
>
> (quoting @parafactual: moclobemide is a great antidepressant. in sufficiently high doses it feels like mania in a pill)

Nobody knows how anything works in psychiatry, including the mechanisms of ADs, including MAOIs lol

### [Reply to @parafactual, 23:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851040439748469050) · 3 likes

> **You (@parafactual):** they make your monoamines go up. we have a decent idea of what the monoamines do! not perfect but decent!

Yeah that’s probably involved but (I just confirmed this for moclobemide) the mystery is why you reach steady state MAO-inhibition at ~3 days but the AD effect takes ~3 weeks

The same thing is true for SSRIs and I believe other ADs - what’s considered the primary mechanism

### [Thread, continued, 23:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851040980914348392) · 3 likes

Reaches full effect well before full effect on actual symptoms

Idk about moclobemide specifically but every AD I’ve looked into that’s reasonably well understood has at least several distinct, documented effects (eg neurosteroids, GABA, CRP, iirc parnate does something to fatty

### [Thread, continued, 23:19 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851041025197760977) · 3 likes

Acids in the brain)

### [Reply to @parafactual, 23:19 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851041178701218218) · 2 likes

> **You (@parafactual):** like after a certain point the Adversary is not just chemical, but also informational

Eh I’m pretty skeptical of psychological-level explanations for this stuff but maybe

## Tuesday, October 29, 2024

### [Reply to @handybobandy, 01:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851075702713438423) · 2 likes

> **Handy (@handybobandy):** School quality as a whole hasn't shown to impact outcomes (some exception on the lowest end, but it's got to be a really horrific place for that to matter)

Maybe, I’m pretty Caplan-pilled, but k-12 is like 15% of a human life so quality matters intrinsically quite a bit

### [Tweet, 21:22 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851374166991049084) · 5 likes

This was a high-impact 7 minutes (or at least I think it will have been)

## Wednesday, October 30, 2024

### [Reply to @LinchZhang, 00:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851415592068059159) · 3 likes

> **Linch (@LinchZhang):** I'm helping out extensively with https://www.swapyourvote.org/
>
> Vote-swapping is an electoral strategy where a protest voter in a swing-state promises to vote for Harris in exchange for two people from safe blue states vote for the protest voter's preferred third-party or protest vote.

Dope

### [Reply to @meaning_enjoyer, 03:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851467033881231546) · 14 likes

> **nihilism disrespecter (@meaning_enjoyer):** mormon success at building a functional, thriving society is low key extremely blackpilling for anyone who holds truth as a terminal value

Yeah but LessWrong has and will have had more influence over the future

### [Reply to @austinc3301, 04:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851476980648014013) · 3 likes

> **Agus 🔸 (@austinc3301):** @AnniePosting @AaronBergman18 look

Lol

### [Reply to @AnniePosting, 04:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851480034315223299) · 4 likes

> **annie 👁❌🦋🪞 (@AnniePosting):** @austinc3301 @AaronBergman18 is this a good or bad look

Good

### [Reply to @bschne, 16:59 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851670176309063754) · 3 likes

> **Benjamin (@bschne):** me when my favorite source of consumer surplus decides to become financially sustainable
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbJzYnlWMAA2VsS.jpg)

Rip 2018 uber

### [Tweet, 17:50 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851683171835806196) · 42 likes

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbKACBIXYAAT0Zf.jpg)

### [Reply, 20:39 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851725694990192808) · 2 likes

Based

### [Reply to @notanastronomer, 20:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851727005303165353) · 3 likes

> **Lauren Gilbert (@notanastronomer):** I really feel like @GiveWell should have a program that once you give, like, 10k, you get swag.  And that is the \*only\* way to get swag.
>
> (quoting @GjMcGowan: Call me Give the way I’m Well #swag)

Yes! Many are saying!

### [Reply, 20:46 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851727341778510174) · 1 like

It should just continue scaling up as far as practicable

Dustin can have…idk, what’s the epitome of signaling in SF?

### [Reply, 20:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851728766416097650)

Lol I hope he has an OP jacket or something

### [Tweet, 23:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851775543613542457) · 13 likes

I also endorse Kamala Harris and anti-endorse Donald Trump

For God’s sake, don’t let Trump win. He’s a really bad guy https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/acx-endorses-harris-oliver-or-stein?r=2muv6&utm_medium=ios

### [Thread, continued, 23:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851775702380552653) · 3 likes

Lol

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbLUL7oWkAATBnD.jpg)

## Thursday, October 31, 2024

### [Thread, continued, 00:01 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851776409137463336) · 2 likes

This was true for the potential Biden administration, and it’s ~equally true for the Harris administration

### [Tweet, 00:02 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851776739669684418) · 8 likes

Follower poll out of curiosity

### [Reply to @ByrneHobart, 00:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851776913804808469) · 4 likes

> **Byrne Hobart (@ByrneHobart):** Hereticon was amazing, but I’ve now spent two and a half days marinating in contrarian ideas. Help me detox by posting your most lukewarm, defensible takes.

Harris is fine, Trump is very bad

### [Reply to @NoahTopper, 00:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851777273466101996) · 3 likes

> **Quinoah 🔍⏸️ (@NoahTopper):** @AaronBergman18 I voted for Chase Oliver, but I also live in Oregon which is most assuredly going to Harris regardless

Yeah makes sense

### [Reply to @paulg, 00:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851790274986381712) · 1 like

> **Paul Graham (@paulg):** Friend: How was your day?
>
> Me: Well, in the morning I published something explaining why moderates should vote for Harris, and then spent the rest of the day being called a retard.

Good move though 🫡

### [Reply to @xsphi, 12:22 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851962852019408920) · 4 likes

> **tess (@xsphi):** I'm precommitting to killing myself if anyone kills any cats or dogs

WWI be like

### [Tweet, 12:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851963150557417950) · 5 likes

Aesthetically I like minimalism/minimalist travel but I’m actually high maintenance

### [Reply to @AaronBergman18, 12:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851965778205061294) · 5 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @AaronBergman18 is no longer available.)_

If you wanna learn more about AI sentience, this is your book (section 5 is specifically about AI but at least section 1 is also load-bearing)

### [Reply to @NathanB60857242, 13:14 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1851975962864320552) · 2 likes

> **Nathan Barnard (@NathanB60857242):** It is with great regret (and in true eastern orthodox fashion) that i have discovered I don't like Augustine

@austinc3301 u gonna let him roast you like that

---

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