Aaron Bergman's tweets, July 2022
Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in July 2022 and has not deleted: 135 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's.
This page is one month of the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets, which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: June 2022. Next month: August 2022.
Friday, July 1, 2022
Reply to @algekalipso, 02:38 UTC · 5 likes
Captain Pleasure, Andrés Gómez Emilsson (@algekalipso): I will not be satisfied with EA's Overtone Window until it recognizes 5-MeO-DMT therapy as a promising lead to solve both the problem of suffering and value alignment.
Also on the horizon: better MDMA, DMT for clusters, kidney stone prevention, wireheading done right, and more.
(quoting @nosilverv: @6Tiph @algekalipso The most EA intervention is understanding and shifting EA’s Overton Window 😂😂😂)
In all seriousness, how would/could this help with AGI alignment, which argue will plausibly determine the fate of ~everything.
Minimizing human suffering over the next decade is great, but kinda pales in comparison to AGI x/s risk
Reply to @FrostedSapling, 02:51 UTC · 5 likes
Ivan 🔸 (@FrostedSapling): If effective altruism was originally developed hundreds of years ago, lets say during the renaissance, what would cause areas look like? If they had the insight of longtermism, how would they go about trying to ensure the long run future?
I think poverty and animal welfare would be top causes tbh
Tweet, 03:41 UTC · 20 likes
I made it (though not for a particularly great reason lol)
My limo is arriving, any further correspondence can be directed to my agent ✌️
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-june-1e7
Thread, continued, 03:42 UTC · 1 like
And no, I am never unmuting that tweet
Reply to @eviecottrell_, 04:08 UTC · 13 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @eviecottrell is no longer available.)_
One of my endless hobbyhorses is that kids are way smarter and more mature (on average, and probably especially at the upper tail) than we give them credit for
Reply, 04:10 UTC · 4 likes
Also, like what *cant* he learn? Is he into philosophy, history, math, physics, coding, computers, literature, …?
Reply to @reconfigurthing, 18:20 UTC · 2 likes
Elias Schmied (@reconfigurthing): anyway thanks to postrats for inoculating me against certain failure modes of (superficial) rationalism (disembodiment, totalizing). i think that's been very valuable
(quoting @reconfigurthing: end of an era. it was fun while it lasted😔❤️still love you guys)
You can start the post-post-rat movement
Reply to @eviecottrell_, 19:05 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @eviecottrell is no longer available.)_
Structure of Scientific Revolutions seems good, plus a library card if he doesn't already have one and there's one nearby lol
Reply to @trevposts, 20:27 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @trevposts is no longer available.)
One of EAs biggest achievements is aligning importance and aesthetics (at least for some people’s tastes)
Reply to @mattparlmer, 20:29 UTC · 2 likes
mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 (@mattparlmer): No alpha left in credentials
(quoting @0_hipotezi: @NielsHoven @tjrwriting It looks like this)
105 avg for graduate degree frankly seems implausible
Saturday, July 2, 2022
Reply to @LowellDennings, 02:15 UTC · 7 likes
Lowell Dennings (@LowellDennings): how about abstract algebra? no one needs that right?
Unironically mostly correct. Last class in my math major. Mostly vocab (“ring”, “group” “ablelian” ) and as far as I can tell pretty much useless
Tweet, 05:17 UTC · 2 likes
Who tf paying $80 for slides? Also, you can’t convince me that the bottom two dark ones aren’t the same shoe. Nice try, Rudy
Sunday, July 3, 2022
Tweet, 00:39 UTC · 9 likes
As my inaugural "I am an adult now, I can go places for no particular reason if I want to goddamnit" trip, I will be in Berkeley the full days of July 5-8, basically just to hang out and talk to/meet people.
Mutuals (or really anyone tbh), if you'd like to meet up, DM me!
Thread, continued, 00:39 UTC · 3 likes
Also only now realizing that traveling for exactly the non-weekend part of the week is the reason my flights+AirBnB were particularly cheap lol
Tweet, 04:18 UTC · 6 likes
I don't get why the probably true "cops stopped doing their jobs in response (maybe even retaliation) to the protests, so more black people died" narrative is coded conservative instead of liberal
(1/
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike
Thread, continued, 04:18 UTC · 2 likes
IMO Scott writes in a misleading way by turning
"my specific claim is that the protests caused police to do less policing in predominantly black areas" (his words) into
"the homicide spike was because of the protests" (also his words)...
Thread, continued, 04:18 UTC · 2 likes
If his theory is right, the BLM protests caused police to pull back, which caused an increase in murders (under a common-sense understanding of causation)...
Thread, continued, 04:18 UTC · 3 likes
But since there are plausible mechanisms through which causation could have run *directly* from BLM protests to murders (say, violent clashes in the protests themselves), "the homicide spike was because of the protests" as a standalone phrase is pretty misleading
Thread, continued, 04:18 UTC · 2 likes
This relates to my first Tweet in that narrative disagreement can/should be over whether police are morally responsible for causally connecting the protests to the murder spike, and there's no reason for "respectable" liberal publications to avoid accepting the connection exists
Thread, continued, 04:18 UTC · 2 likes
Kinda reminds me of how (apparently, I can't verify firsthand) some media sources insinuated or claimed that the lab leak theory was more conducive to racism than the "some guy ate a bat" theory of COVID origins, whereas this doesn't seem obvious to me at all
Quote tweet, 23:17 UTC · 8 likes
A real critique of college that everyone is sleeping on is that professors simply don’t tell you that sci-hub is a thing that exists.
My freshman year, I was really emailing random authors to get a copy of their paper lmao
Quoting Flo 🌞 (@florencehinder): @RafaRuizdeLira I had not used Sci-hub before, thanks for the suggestion!! :D
Monday, July 4, 2022
Tweet, 00:40 UTC · 120 likes
Extremely funny (and good!) that this @ESYudkowsky quote has escaped the rationalist memetic circle and become the stuff of Etsy wall hangings
Reply to @Plinz, 05:39 UTC · 11 likes
Joscha Bach (@Plinz): Optimizing a mind-internal measure seems to be a futile direction for developing meaningful ethics. Hedonic states are an evolved solution that instrumentally regulates behavior towards multigenerational survival. I'd go towards maximizing total expected observed complexity.
Nah man get valence-pilled. Only stuff with intrinsic value fr
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 16:30 UTC · 4 likes
Aaron Bergman, July 4, 2022: Extremely funny (and good!) that this @ESYudkowsky quote has escaped the rationalist memetic circle and become the stuff of Etsy wall hangings
It was RedBubble, not Etsy! https://www.redbubble.com/i/photographic-print/You-Are-Personally-Responsible-For-Becoming-More-Ethical-Than-The-Society-You-Grew-Up-In-by-danyneg/52550351.6Q0TX
Tuesday, July 5, 2022
Reply to @tyler_m_john, 01:08 UTC · 3 likes
Tyler John (@tyler_m_john): There's an EA-adjacent school of thought that's like
1. Panpsychism is empirically verifiable + not dualism on stilts
2. Open individualism is science and not a non-cognitivist expression of my values
3. Suffering shows us moral realism is trueAnd I am its sworn eternal enemy.
I basically buy into a (slightly longer and more nuanced) version of 3 lol
Tweet, 01:28 UTC · 3 likes
Thanks to @united for providing me a little bit of pre-boarding exercise and excitement!
Thread, continued, 01:28 UTC · 3 likes
Moral of the story is always sign up for corporate text alerts I guess
Reply to @ChanaMessinger, 01:34 UTC · 3 likes
Chana (@ChanaMessinger): This is an amazing diagram
In the climbing world, everything shown is “slab” and things only get fun after 90 degrees
Reply to @StefanFSchubert, 01:36 UTC · 2 likes
Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert): Yes, every time I return from the US to Europe I feel "back to unfree soil". 🙄
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 01:40 UTC · 10 likes
Aaron Bergman, July 5, 2022: Moral of the story is always sign up for corporate text alerts I guess
For real though, airplanes are extremely fucking cool and I will never not be excited for takeoff. The 3 year olds are right about this one guys
Reply to @tyler_m_john, 02:13 UTC · 2 likes
Tyler John (@tyler_m_john): @NathanpmYoung I'm significantly more radical than most of my peers, but my metaphilosophy says that any hypothesis that couldn't *in principle* be confirmed or disconfirmed empirically is devoid of meaningful content
If there were any way to bet on this (and I don’t think there is) I’d bet like at like 5:1 odds against it. qualia plausibly don’t have empirical causal power, and yet it still seems that they are “meaningful”
Wednesday, July 6, 2022
Reply to @dwarkesh_sp, 02:23 UTC · 4 likes
Dwarkesh Patel (@dwarkesh_sp): What should I ask @pmarca?
Also relatedly, anyone got a couch in Menlo Park I can crash on the night of September 14?
Idk if there’s a question here, but I came away from his interview with Cowen basically thinking he’s totally amoral if not a sociopath, in the most neutral/clinical/respectful sense. Does he agree with this? Is there anything he would give up money or “success” for?
Reply to @Aella_Girl, 18:25 UTC · 42 likes
Aella (@Aella_Girl): There's a trope that white women fuck dogs, so I asked 5k women their ethnicity, and if they were sexually aroused by dogs.
Here's the data (if ppl said they were into it = 1 point; if marked as fav out of similar options = 2; for reference, interest in 'spanking' scored 0.7)
I’ve…never encountered this trope
Reply to @metakuna, 18:28 UTC · 3 likes
metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna): honestly just excited to see how far they will go with the bit now
One of the funnier things I’ve seen online
Reply to @frances__lorenz, 18:29 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)
“I swear no one in this household looks at that TV. I didn’t even know it was there myself!”
Thursday, July 7, 2022
Reply to @depthsofwiki, 05:28 UTC · 12 likes
depths of wikipedia! (@depthsofwiki):
¿
Reply to @cafreiman, 16:38 UTC · 4 likes
Chris Freiman (@cafreiman): Better yet—donate $20 billion to life-saving charities
Idk this doesn’t seem obviously worse
Quote tweet, 20:20 UTC · 2 likes
I said insoluble, but I’m hoping it’s just hard!
Quoting Jake Orthwein (@JakeOrthwein): The hard problem of consciousness is:
Reply to @Noahpinion, 20:31 UTC · 10 likes
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion): High-IQ guy: IQ doesn't matter as much as people think
Mid-IQ guy: Shut up idiot
I’m gonna do the low status thing and say that the mid guy is right on this one,
Reply to @KerryLVaughan, 22:08 UTC · 10 likes
Kerry Vaughan-Rowe (@KerryLVaughan): I spent 2014-2019 building the EA movement. I now see it as antithetical to much of what I care about.
which really sucks.
One criticism of the movement that has really crystalized for me lately is this:
Effective Altruism is dehumanizing.
Maybe this is obvious and it doesn’t at all contradict the claims you’re making, but IMO all of this is just less important that the actual effect EA has on the *rest* of the world.
This is contingent, not necessarily true - namely if EA had only a small impact on the world
Reply to @CarsonJGale, 22:10 UTC · 8 likes
Carson Gale (@CarsonJGale): I generally like this criticism, but it fails in two areas: (i) it doesn't offer an alternative, and (ii) it doesn't address the MASSIVE positives of the movement. E.g., saving / making better hundreds of thousands of lives (likely many more).
Yeah, totally agree. It’s coherent and possible (though I think wrong) that EA is dehumanizing and bad for it’s “adherents” and yet massively good for the world
Tweet, 23:00 UTC · 3 likes
I’d like to nominate this sign on the fence of the BERKELEY LAWN BOWING CLUB as the least necessary COVID protection measure of all time.
Friday, July 8, 2022
Reply to @daniel_filan, 00:51 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @daniel_filan is no longer available.)
Checks out
Reply to @philoshua, 02:04 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @philoshua is no longer available.)
I chose 1889 for the same reason you should switch doors in the Monty Hall problem
Reply to @gmiller, 02:08 UTC · 3 likes
Geoffrey Miller (@gmiller): Far-Left wokeness has taken over most of psychology.
Example: this chilling statement by the influential Society for Personality & Social Psychology (SPSP).
If your research doesn't actively promote 'equity, inclusion, & anti-racism', it's not welcome.
https://spsp.org/events/demonstrating-our-commitment-anti-racism-through-programming-and-events
Unless I’m missing something, that’s not what the link says. It says you must *evaluate* whether it promotes equity, etc.
Doesn’t claim it actually has to go get accepted
Reply to @mattyglesias, 02:28 UTC · 3 likes
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias): Cooking up a hot take.
Yes but with the goal of increasing it to infinity by ending aging
Reply to @ohabryka, 03:34 UTC
Oliver Habryka (@ohabryka): I also like these things. I just feel like we can get them in post-publication review in better forms than in pre-publication review.
Could one of the x-risk funds pay people to go through the Alignment forum and turn all the high quality posts into pdfs, submit them for publication, deal with feedback, etc.?
Reply to @nickcammarata, 04:54 UTC · 12 likes
Nick (@nickcammarata): Opioids are antidepressants with unacceptable side-effects. We are putting zero effort into fixing those side-effects bc we know how it would feel and it would feel really good
All I want is an addiction-free, zero side effect combination of amphetamine and pharma-grade heroin. Is that too much to ask for?
Reply to @davidad, 16:06 UTC · 2 likes
davidad 🎇 (@davidad): Jason Matheny’s career be like—
2007: econ PhD
2008: research consultant @JHUAPL
2009: research associate @FHIOxford
2010: program manager @IARPAnews
2015: Director of IARPA
2019: Founding director @CSETGeorgetown
2021: OSTP & National Security Council
2022: CEO @RANDCorporation
🐐
Saturday, July 9, 2022
Tweet, 02:31 UTC · 6 likes
Non-binary person who wants to signal lack of allegiance to cultural progressivism by not putting pronouns in bio, but legit wants other people to know what pronouns they go by
Reply to @makoConstruct, 03:43 UTC · 7 likes
we're not allowed to say where faun has gone (@makoConstruct): Interesting that deepmind's protein folding model trains itself on fictional datapoints that it has just guessed, but is confident of. Backprop can do ruminative inference. Does not result in overfitting. Toxic empiricists get wrecked, dreams are real.
It’s extremely weird to me that this works; defies intuition
Tweet, 04:32 UTC · 3 likes
The case against my case for suffering focused ethics
Reply to @MaxCRoser, 11:46 UTC · 13 likes
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser): I'm curious how you think about the limits of artificial intelligence.
What is a task that you could ask a human to do right now which you think an AI won't be able to do within this century?
Possibly accurately report on its own qualia?
Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 12:04 UTC · 6 likes
Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung): how do you falsify that?
I don’t think you can
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Tweet, 03:34 UTC · 39 likes
At an event today I was reminded that ppl around my circles have taken the (largely correct) "social media is bad, use sparingly" critique to heart.
Just want to say I (think) I've gotten real intellectual+social value out of Twitter & others can too with just a 🤏 of effort
Thread, continued, 09:26 UTC · 5 likes
Ah I don't think I have a huge amount of special insight, mostly since EA and rationalist (+adjacent) accounts tend to do super well at putting out interesting, important, good faith, low unnecessary drama content
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 5 likes
But a few other things:
- Generally write nice, good faith stuff. I mean I make sarcastic comments and stuff sometimes, but I do try to avoid adopting an antagonistic position basically all the time.
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 3 likes
One of the funny+interesting parts about going viral with my "build underground?" tweet was that sometimes (even just commenting like "lmao") on someone's funny dunk on me led like a dozen people to straight up apologize for being antagonistic at first
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 2 likes
- If you're interested in EA, the EA Community is very cool. (As long as people don't find me spammy), seems like a good place to write posts that are too short or half-baked for the Forum
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 1 like
- The Twitter algorithm is actually pretty good at finding things I find interesting, cool, or funny IMO. Not sure how contingent this is
- It's not much, but I've now met two people IRL through Twitter (s/o @GluskerMartin @hamzaiandafirst) and several more online
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 1 like
- I think the algorithm is also pretty decent at keeping me up to date on reasonably "common knowledge" things, which is nice and useful as a legit hardcore nerd
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 2 likes
- Probably as with any information source, the top like .01% of content can just be enormously useful. Like the Tweet I mention here basically earned me and my family a couple thousand almost risk-free dollars
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 5 likes
Likewise, I'm 99% sure I ran across this article which basically directly caused me to text my family that they should prepare for COVID. Probably didn't matter much materially to us, but at least I got some ethos points lol
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 5 likes
- Of course, the left tail exists too! I've lost ~$1,000 in crypto perhaps in part thanks to Twitter (tho not any single Tweet), which I don't think was a bad call ex ante but
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 3 likes
- To generalize from the EA Community thing above:
I (and I think others) find that writing down ideas publicly helps to make them seem salient and real. But plenty of these ideas are too small or underdeveloped for a blog post, so Twitter to the rescue!
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 2 likes
- For whatever reason, Twitter seems to select for smart and influential people participating in "elite discourse." Kinda cool to be there for it, if you want to be.
Tweet, 09:53 UTC · 1 like
- Similarly, it selects really hard (plenty of misses, but few false positives) for *younger* people who are very smart and insightful. Like I know of exactly two teenagers here, @PradyuPrasad and @MatthewAdelste1, both of whom are obviously brilliant
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 1 like
- For whatever reason I don't feel the need to mute, but I think other people find that very useful - so I encourage it for others if they think it would be good lol
Thread, continued, 09:53 UTC · 1 like
Eh getting tired so that's it for now, might add more later. On reflection that was less a thread of advice then just a list of things to notice or be aware of, oh well ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quote tweet, 09:57 UTC · 2 likes
Made a super hasty but maybe useful ~Twitter appreciation thread~ below this lol 🧵🧵🧵
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): At an event today I was reminded that ppl around my circles have taken the (largely correct) "social media is bad, use sparingly" critique to heart.
Just want to say I (think) I've gotten real intellectual+social value out of Twitter & others can too with just a 🤏 of effort
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 10:05 UTC · 3 likes
Aaron Bergman, July 10, 2022: Eh getting tired so that's it for now, might add more later. On reflection that was less a thread of advice then just a list of things to notice or be aware…
Ok one more. At the risk of getting too high-strung, maybe the most important thing I was getting at in my initial Tweet was just that:
You're just, like, allowed to use Twitter (and FB, insta, etc) in a good way if you want to. Thanks at least to the EA+rat+post rat scene...
Thread, continued, 10:05 UTC · 2 likes
...here, there's a critical mass of people who want the same.
Like (if you want and are able to), just don't engage with bad faith people or consider (stereo)typical antagonistic behavior to be somehow inevitable or inescapable
Thread, continued, 10:08 UTC · 1 like
and people who are smart and conscientious enough to (1) learn about and (2) act on the "FB makes ppl miserable, Twitter mobs are mean" genre of critiques are *exactly* the type of people who can use Twitter well if they so choose!
Thread, continued, 10:14 UTC · 2 likes
Oh ya, and just wanna plug this banger of a DM from the "build underground?" fiasco as an encapsulation of several of the points above
Monday, July 11, 2022
Quote tweet, 06:18 UTC · 5 likes
Sorry guys, but sometimes you gotta go with your gut...
http://aaronbergman.net it is.
Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18): I might give my blog (currently http://aaronbergman.substack.com) a new name! If you'd like to help me choose, here's a ranked choice voting ballot - thanks!
https://www.rcv123.org/ballot/5apMAiw2WjyS7CfVPvwfWC
Reply to @panickssery, 11:48 UTC · 2 likes
Arjun Panickssery (@panickssery): Overheard at a rationality meetup:
"YIMBY makes people richer through more development"
"But rich people eat more farmed animal meat so really it's bad"
"More importantly, development promotes climate change, which is bad"
"Actually, climate change reduces X risk, which is good"
You (legit, these all really happened) forgot the layer with wild animal suffering, and how rich people will maybe spend resources on helping animals, and how YIMBYism has an indeterminate effect on AI x-risk because…
Thread, continued, 11:48 UTC · 2 likes
it would allow both more EAs and more AI capabilities people to move to the Bay lol
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Tweet, 08:21 UTC · 30 likes
Has anyone tried modifying psilocin (or any other psychedelic) to selectively *antagonize* 5-HT2A receptors to act as an anti-hallucinogen in the hopes of creating a non-terrible antipsychotic?
Thread, continued, 08:21 UTC · 2 likes
A quick google turns up no selective 5-HT2A antagonists.
If not, maybe someone should
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antipsychotic
Thread, continued, 08:21 UTC · 2 likes
Antipsychotics mainly target dopamine receptors and can sometimes really fuck people up.
Wikipedia for 5-HT2A: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/5-HT2A_receptor
Thread, continued, 08:21 UTC · 2 likes
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocin
Thread, continued, 08:22 UTC · 2 likes
Also, I meant “anyone” as like “any human ever,” but if anyone following me has tried this that would be super fuckin cool
Reply, 13:08 UTC · 3 likes
F
Reply to @alieninsect, 13:29 UTC · 3 likes
Andrew Gallimore (@alieninsect): @AaronBergman18 @algekalipso Pimavanserin is actually a highly selective antagonist and inverse agonist at 5HT2A without affecting 5HT2B, 5HT2C, dopamine, muscarinic, etc, receptors — as well as being a rather beautiful molecule…
Oh this is awesome, thanks! And it’s already FDA approved for Parkinson’s psychosis, meaning (I think) it can be prescribed off-label by any MD
It’s something I’d consider trying to get my hands on if I had to take APs for whatever reason but was struggling with side effects
Reply to @SpencrGreenberg, 14:19 UTC · 3 likes
Spencer Greenberg 🔍 (@SpencrGreenberg): A question for Effective Altruists and aspiring Effective Altruists - what's something you think you disagree with at least 50% of EAs about?
Also put on FB, but:
“Under a form of utilitarianism that places happiness and suffering on the same moral axis and allows that the former can be traded off against the latter, one might nevertheless conclude that some instantiations of suffering cannot…
Quote tweet, 20:52 UTC · 14 likes
I really lucked out running into @80000Hours in high school, whose content informed which majors I pursued gave me a decent enough understanding of EA to help start a uni group.
This kind of thing can and should be more common, which is why I'm psyched to see this get started!
Quoting Peter McIntyre (@pmcntyr): I spent 7 years preparing to be a doctor before finally realising how much more I could help outside the hospital.
So, I put together a team and built a course to help people avoid making the same mistake: https://non-trivial.org/courses/how-to-change-the-world
Some stuff I really wish I’d known... (1/20)
Wednesday, July 13, 2022
Reply to @SpencrGreenberg, 13:28 UTC · 3 likes
Spencer Greenberg 🔍 (@SpencrGreenberg): What's your strongest argument against Longtermism (an ethical stance giving priority to improving the long-term future - saying future people matter as much as people today, but there may be vastly more future people than exist now, so the future may have most of what matters)?
https://longtermrisk.org/charity-cost-effectiveness-in-an-uncertain-world/
Thursday, July 14, 2022
Tweet, 03:18 UTC · 52 likes
Started from the bottom 😤
Thread, continued, 03:18 UTC · 9 likes
Really though this was probably the right call given their resources at the time. And eventually @FreshMangoLassi at @80000Hours did speak with me, so thanks!
Reply to @sportquant, 15:17 UTC · 10 likes
Vignesh (@sportquant): What's the best way to gauge the effectiveness of a charity?
Boy do I have a movement for you
Reply to @0x464D, 19:40 UTC
Florian Magin (@0x464D): That paper isn't on sci-hub, at least not on any of the domains I tried (and have integrated into Zotero). That's why I was so surprised that it was on research gate
Huh fair enough, I spoke too soon!
Reply to @albrgr, 19:46 UTC · 2 likes
Alexander Berger (@albrgr): Interesting paper finding that air pollution reduces performance in chess, particularly under time pressure: https://www.dropbox.com/s/kagethk90m8az2j/Paper_1_MS_JobMarket.pdf?dl=0
Everyone reading this should make owning an air purifier, air quality monitor, and co2 monitor a core part of their identity
Reply to @fogellxy, 21:13 UTC · 4 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @fogellxy is no longer available.)
“Nonnegative”
Friday, July 15, 2022
Reply, 07:16 UTC · 1 like
Price sensitive consumers are buying almost-free caffeine pills instead?
Reply to @TomChivers, 09:28 UTC · 12 likes
Tom Chivers (@TomChivers): “News is a nonrandom sample of the worst events on earth” is such a succinct way of explaining why everyone always thinks the world is worse than it is
(quoting @sapinker: Good summary of points I've long made: Subjective risk is driven by available events, not reality; News is a nonrandom sample of the worst events on earth; Good developments are incremental trends or scarcity of bad events, neither reported; Data show massive global progress..)
Nah they did the wrong math but got the right answer
Quote tweet, 09:52 UTC · 27 likes
All the smart, well-intentioned, Our World in Data-pilled “world good” guys are doing a big epistemic disservice by making claims about the overall state of the world instead of current human well-being, which is what they really mean
Quoting Tom Chivers (@TomChivers): “News is a nonrandom sample of the worst events on earth” is such a succinct way of explaining why everyone always thinks the world is worse than it is
Thread, continued, 09:52 UTC · 12 likes
Like @TomChivers almost certainly knows about factory farming and thinks it’s bad, but then (I’m assuming) just kinda compartmentalizes that for no reason.
Ik this sounds strawmanny, and maybe it is, but it’s my legit read of the situation atm
Reply to @TomChivers, 09:55 UTC · 4 likes
Tom Chivers (@TomChivers): @AaronBergman18 I go seriously back-and-forth on the moral value of chickens and how much that renders our world a dystopia. But that's why I'm a big FAKE MEAT backer, in all its forms
Yeah fair enough and I’m rooting for cultured stuff too, but I do think there’s a tendency to think that negating a lie means the opposite is true, or something like that.
Also put out a hopefully-not-too-nasty QT just a minute ago lol
Reply to his own earlier tweet, 09:57 UTC · 7 likes
Aaron Bergman, July 15, 2022: Like @TomChivers almost certainly knows about factory farming and thinks it’s bad, but then (I’m assuming) just kinda compartmentalizes that for no reason. Ik…
response from a minute before
Saturday, July 16, 2022
Quote tweet, 06:09 UTC · 7 likes
I admit this is way less than I would have guessed and I probably should have looked into this before 🙃
Even still, as a quick BOTEC guess let's assume pigs and farmed fish also add .75% of human neuron count, and that only 1/3 of cows but 5/6 of other animals have...
Quoting Andy Masley (@AndyMasley): @AaronBergman18 @TomChivers Factory farming updates me very heavily against optimism, but one steelman for the simple Our World in Data view is that the total number of chickens alive at any time only have 0.7% of human neuron count
Thread, continued, 06:09 UTC · 3 likes
terrible lives. Then we get about 2% of world population equivalent, or the equivalent of 150 million people living in (and, really, I don't say this lightly - just trying to be accurate) concentration camp-type conditions, and that's before we get to slaughter
Thread, continued, 06:09 UTC · 9 likes
All of the following are true. This:
1. shows (setting aside wild animal suffering) that I was wrong to assume humans would be a rounding error due to animal agriculture,
2. Is "good news" in the sense that I now think there's less suffering than I previously thought..
Tweet, 06:09 UTC · 4 likes
3. is still something like the equivalent of 150 million people, well undergoing what chickens and cows undergo - you can look that up yourself.
Absolute magnitudes matter!
...
Thread, continued, 06:09 UTC · 5 likes
Asking myself "would I rather be born a random human in 1500 or a random human in 2022 but for 3% of the time (11 days/year) live like a farmed chicken, pig, or fish (albeit with my own capacity to suffer), I lean towards the former, though am super uncertain...
Thread, continued, 06:09 UTC · 5 likes
I concede though that this thought experiment shows the relative magnitudes to be unclear. Also, I'll reiterate that I was wrong, and in the direction opposite direction than I was critiquing (cc @TomChivers)
Reply to @AviN102, 06:17 UTC · 2 likes
Avi Norowitz (@AviN102): I think wild animal welfare should be included in the discussion too. I think it's wrong to say "the world is getting better" while only presenting welfare metrics about humans, a tiny minority of the moral patients in the world.
Also, a ton of miscommunication happens because we could be talking about any of:
1) is the world good (levels)
2) has the world gotten better? (avg dGood/dt)
3) Has the world changed signs, from net good to net bad or vice versa?
3) is the world getting better (current dGood/dt)
Thread, continued, 06:17 UTC · 1 like
and I don't know of any compelling reasons to think that things have changed on net for wild animals over time (#2) though I'm certainly not an expert
Sunday, July 17, 2022
Reply to @DiracDeltaFunk, 12:11 UTC · 2 likes
Ben Spitz (63/100 improv meals) (@DiracDeltaFunk): As of today, my age is the unique integer n such that n-1 is a square and n+1 is a cube!
How would you try to solve for n?
Guess and check. Hey, it works
Reply to @contemplatonist, 22:02 UTC · 6 likes
Amber Dawn (@contemplatonist): What are your fave 'alternative' questions to ask people you've just met?
(quoting @RichardMCNgo: Whenever I overhear someone at a party saying "so what do you do?" I feel a twinge of second-hand shame. Surely, as a society, we can just agree to ask each other better questions than that.)
As of five seconds ago, "What are your fave 'alternative' questions to ask people you've just met?"
Tuesday, July 19, 2022
Tweet, 03:35 UTC · 19 likes
I think I have found the single least necessary product out there
Thread, continued, 03:36 UTC · 5 likes
Kinda want to spend the $2.81 to get it so I can look like I know something others don't https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Thunderbolt-Docking-Station-Colorii-DC2-Highly_1600515172616.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.normal_offer.d_title.12897b27AQ9pTi&s=p
Reply to @MarkovMagnifico, 21:47 UTC · 3 likes
Markov (@MarkovMagnifico): I took a screenshot of my boarding pass and doctored the group number so I could board sooner. It worked
They call me a modern day Frank Abagnale
(gif, plays on X)
Thursday, July 21, 2022
Tweet, 00:48 UTC · 18 likes
Interesting and more than a little concerning that John von Neumann, probably the smartest person in history, asked to be baptized on his deathbed (purportedly) because of Pascal’s Wager
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-man-from-the-future
Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 07:56 UTC · 6 likes
Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus): I have handled requests for emotional labor and brain-picking by setting an hourly rate and letting people select times from a Calendly. It has been incredibly successful! The quality of interactions is higher, I have more control over the timing, and I’m not resentful.
Guys PSA I will zoom with anyone for $10M/hour
Reply to @CineraVerinia, 20:26 UTC · 2 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @CineraVerinia is no longer available.)
I said more, but I’m not actually certain. But the main caveat is that this is only talking about current “levels,” not moral importance. Since humans are so causally powerful, in one sense more moral value runs through us/our behavior
Friday, July 22, 2022
Reply, 15:50 UTC · 1 like
New cause area: don’t let people learn ML
Reply to @catehall, 23:25 UTC · 1 like
(The tweet being replied to by @catehall is no longer available.)
F🅰️CTS
Tuesday, July 26, 2022
Reply to @EAheadlines, 00:17 UTC · 5 likes
EA Lifestyles (@EAheadlines): EAs in London drink tea and think about the Queen
EAs in Bethesda, MD think about whatever I’m thinking about because it’s literally just me
Wednesday, July 27, 2022
Reply to @ElectricKeyLime, 01:09 UTC · 2 likes
Sunbeamzannah (@ElectricKeyLime): @MarieClericia @gptbrooke @neallseth @panickssery And me? <3
Me pleeease (if it’s one I’m not in yet lol)
Reply to @inesferhumi, 01:13 UTC · 3 likes
Inés (@inesferhumi): @AaronBergman18 🐟
Monocausality 😤established 🐠
Thursday, July 28, 2022
Reply to @mealreplacer, 14:37 UTC · 5 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @mealreplacer is no longer available.)
I feel this in my soul
Tweet, 16:14 UTC · 2 likes
.@dwarkesh_sp Great episode with @finmoorhouse , as always, and the discussion on podcasting is making me think about having another go at it
How many hours goes in to an episode like this from your end, though? …
https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hcGkuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tL2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdC82OTM0NS5yc3M%3D&episode=c3Vic3RhY2s6cG9zdDo2NTg0MzI3Ng%3D%3D
Friday, July 29, 2022
Tweet, 22:33 UTC · 17 likes
Saw Rob's Tweet and assumed The Feeling of Value by @SharonRawlette had just come out. Turns out it's six years old and I've been living under a rock. Anyway here's a meme to commemorate
Thread, continued, 22:33 UTC · 2 likes
Book https://www.amazon.com/Feeling-Value-Grounded-Phenomenal-Consciousness/dp/1534768017
Thread, continued, 22:33 UTC · 6 likes
Also, new EA cause area: give @SharonRawlette (philosopher with correct opinions) more followers than @sharonhewitt (LA state legislator)
Sunday, July 31, 2022
Reply to @aaronsojourner, 00:02 UTC · 3 likes
(The tweet being replied to by @aaronsojourner is no longer available.)
Isn’t it the case that most people can only do about 3 hours of legit intensive knownledge work per day?
Quote tweet, 00:38 UTC · 2 likes
I’m 2 hours in (4% done)
Quoting Eigil Fjeldgren Rischel - abstr/acc (@Ayegill): @AaronBergman18 @ESYudkowsky This is the ideal podcast episode. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.
Reply to @QualyThe, 18:55 UTC · 4 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): wow it turns out rescuing a child from a shallow pond is a bad idea when you've got 240 volts coursing through your veins 😬
Hate to kill the vibe but amperes is what really matters for pain of electric current, not voltage https://www.thespruce.com/amperage-not-voltage-kills-1152476
Thread, continued, 18:56 UTC · 4 likes
QUALY u gotta up the epistemics😤💡
Reply to @dwarkesh_sp, 18:59 UTC · 3 likes
Dwarkesh Patel (@dwarkesh_sp): Which podcast player do you use?
Google is superior, most fine-tuned speed adjustments!
Reply to @QualyThe, 18:59 UTC · 1 like
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): look pal, getting the terminology right isn't going to bring them back 😭
😢
Reply to @RichardHanania, 22:41 UTC · 2 likes
Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania): It’s missing the point, the scores don’t matter. It’s like taking away kids’ entire childhood and spending money teaching them how to hula hoop and then they don’t even remember how to hula hoop when they grow up and we say well we got good value because they once hula hooped.
Reply to @QualyThe, 23:32 UTC · 3 likes
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): wow 100 Quallowers already! to celebrate reply and I'll tell you your optimal career path to maximise utility
Help
Reply to @QualyThe, 23:32 UTC · 1 like
Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe): HVAC technician in India
This is oddly plausible
Reply to @algekalipso, 23:35 UTC · 8 likes
Captain Pleasure, Andrés Gómez Emilsson (@algekalipso): A lot of people go to parties with one thing in their mind: "Tonight, I'm gonna have sex".
I go to parties with one thing on my mind: "Tonight, I'm going to solve the hard problem of consciousness with someone I meet".
(quoting @CRSegerie: @algekalipso Hyperphilosophical boy at 🎉 parties be like:)
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