# Aaron Bergman's tweets, June 2022

Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in June 2022 and has not deleted: 108 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's.

This page is one month of [the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets](https://abergman.com/tweets), which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: [May 2022](https://abergman.com/tweets/2022-05). Next month: [July 2022](https://abergman.com/tweets/2022-07).

## Wednesday, June 1, 2022

### [Tweet, 01:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1531810679828758531) · 6 likes

Yet another “Stuff I buy and use” post live  https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fwtoEN5pZpDfQQLKz/stuff-i-buy-and-use-a-listicle-to-boost-your-consumer

### [Reply to @AndyMasley, 03:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1531839620538851329) · 3 likes

> **Andy Masley (@AndyMasley):** I ride or die for corn bulbs

Next mega-earning to give project: forming a company called “Illuminate” or something, renaming “corn bulb” to “ProductivityLight” or whatever, and watching the billions roll in

### [Tweet, 21:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1532118048580288519) · 1 like

Why haven’t cars gotten easier to purchase over time as TVs have?

If I was a risk-neutral, entrepreneurial engineer with a surplus of hubris and unlimited access to capital (bonus for speaking Spanish or Mandarin) I might try to figure out how to make a good car sell for <$10k

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUMtPlGX0AQB5sf.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 21:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1532118050992017408)

A few hypotheses:
1\) labor is necessarily a big input to production, and I’d know this if I knew anything about cars
2\) regulatory capture by industry players
3\) other, non-capture regulation
4\) hidden quality improvements not captured in the data

### [Thread, continued, 21:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1532118052183150606) · 1 like

5\) all the engineering talent and energy is going into electric cars/being hired by Tesla

Not sure whether this is relevant, but FWIW Mexican cars appear to sell for around the same price as in the US, despite way lower median income there

### [Thread, continued, 21:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1532118053265211392) · 2 likes

Cc @ATabarrok @calebwatney @AlecStapp @PradyuPrasad @ anyone else who knows about heavy machinery manufacturing or relevant econ

## Friday, June 3, 2022

### [Tweet, 03:59 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1532572638710796292)

Thanks to the iPhone notes app, this no longer has to be a universal human experience. It might feel a little cringe but you gotta fight through that and put all the decent ideas in the Ideas Note

(from @nathanwpyle on IG)

[![Video thumbnail](https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1532572612613836815/pu/img/h1g0R4NyvOSQ5gRd.jpg)](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1532572638710796292/video/1) (video, plays on X)

### [Thread, continued, 03:59 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1532572648286392323) · 2 likes

Here’s a template to get you started

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUTKsoiXoAASTax.jpg)

## Sunday, June 5, 2022

### [Reply to @daniel_271828, 18:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1533514905676128256) · 3 likes

> **zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828):** @depthsofwiki They really gotta get the fruit in there

someone with dalle access get on this

## Tuesday, June 7, 2022

### [Reply to @eslewhere, 19:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1534259922975834113) · 11 likes

> **eslewhere (@eslewhere):** One of the best Effective Altruism movement building strategies is for individual EAs be super cool, kind, and interesting so that people will want to be part of the movement

\*gets excommunicated for not being cool\*

## Wednesday, June 8, 2022

### [Reply to @TylerAlterman, 15:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1534557837455679489) · 5 likes

> **Tyler is finishing a book, slow to reply (@TylerAlterman):** Rationality is to Effective Altruism as Postrationality is to \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_?

The heterodox Qualia Research Institute/“abolish suffering with DMT” view of EA

### [Reply to @cafreiman, 21:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1534642342950539264) · 2 likes

> **Chris Freiman (@cafreiman):**
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUu9DSaXoAAAUIz.jpg)

Add another row with Tomasik

### [Reply to @MatthewJBar, 22:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1534661973295648770) · 2 likes

> **Matthew Barnett (@MatthewJBar):** From @robbensinger: "This idea seems absurd, so I endorse it only grudgingly: it’s absurd, but less absurd than the two alternatives."
> https://nothingismere.com/2017/02/23/phenomenal-consciousness-is-a-quasiperceptual-illusion-objections-and-replies/

I only skimmed the articles you posted, but just registering that I’ve thought about and engaged a lot with illusionism and think it’s coherent and plausible but less likely than some alternatives, particularly Russelian monism https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/russellian-monism/

### [Reply to @MatthewJBar, 22:29 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1534663919511404544) · 2 likes

> **Matthew Barnett (@MatthewJBar):** @AaronBergman18 @robbensinger I consider Russellian monism deeply flawed, for reasons discussed here: https://reducing-suffering.org/not-type-f-monist/

Damn he really got an article for everything lol

## Saturday, June 11, 2022

### [Quote tweet, 01:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535429908033376257) · 5 likes

Dusting off the ol' R skills (zoomed in version below👀)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU7whWJWYAEBkjT.jpg)

> **Quoting Jacques (@JacquesThibs):** I just scraped the EA Forum in case anyone wants to do anything interesting with that data. Contains metadata too: authors, score, votes, date_published, text (post contents), comments.
>
> Here’s a link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XA71s2K4j89_N2x4EbTdVYANJ7X3P4ow/view?usp=drivesdk
>
> Have fun. :)

### [Thread, continued, 01:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535429914912083968) · 1 like

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU7wxoUXoAA5i2P.png)

### [Thread, continued, 01:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535429917776789510)

Code: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sD6GJT8AoWVIfkAWrWqV5ms9nmTMxfom/view?usp=sharing

### [Thread, continued, 01:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535441302438944776) · 2 likes

Forgot to tag the people on the graph!
@AaronGertler @NunoSempere @peterwildeford @Michael90875807(I think?) @RichardMCNgo @davidnash @? @vaidehiagrwalla @? @lukefreeman @willmacaskill @ben_j_todd @LinchZhang @? @? @michelle_hutchi @? @juliadwise @MilanGriffes

### [Reply to @peterwildeford, 02:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535448336530030593) · 2 likes

> **Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford):** @AaronBergman18 @AaronGertler @NunoSempere @Michael90875807 @RichardMCNgo @davidnash @vaidehiagrwalla @lukefreeman @willmacaskill @ben_j_todd @LinchZhang @juliadwise @MilanGriffes cool! what is the karma metric here?

uhh whatever the variable "score" refers to in the original data, summed over a certain user's posts. Generally very similar to "votes", often a bit higher or lower Assuming it includes "strong" votes but not certain. Should've clarified it doesn't count Karma from comments!

### [Reply to @peterwildeford, 02:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535448482173034496) · 2 likes

> **Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford):** @AaronBergman18 @AaronGertler @NunoSempere @Michael90875807 @RichardMCNgo @davidnash @vaidehiagrwalla @lukefreeman @willmacaskill @ben_j_todd @LinchZhang @juliadwise @MilanGriffes cool! what is the karma metric here?

Will try to add/separate comment Karma later; these are important too of course!

### [Reply to @daniel_271828, 06:43 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535513122009653249) · 4 likes

> **zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828):** What are some examples of drugs that work but for which we don't know why they work?

Modafinil, basically all antidepressants

### [Reply to @daniel_271828, 07:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535520165596745728) · 2 likes

> **zzDANIEL_ETH (@daniel_271828):** @AaronBergman18 Do you have a link by any chance?

Source from Wikipedia on moda: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2654794/

“Interestingly, the therapeutic effects of SSRIs cannot be entirely summed up by simple inhibition of serotonin transporter (SERT), and as such further mechanisms of action must be at work…” from https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/neurolint/neurolint-13-00038/article_deploy/neurolint-13-00038-v2.pdf?version=1628662119

## Sunday, June 12, 2022

### [Tweet, 12:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535968622081867777) · 1,615 likes

Serious question for #YIMBYTwitter: where height restrictions per se are the issue, why haven’t developers started building vertically but \*down\*, underground?

I mean windowless apartments don’t sound ideal, but probably less bad than unaffordability and homelessness

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVDbUGTXEAAn6_Z.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 12:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535968624019755008) · 264 likes

Is it just too expensive? Even with median rents $4k+ in some places?

Is it illegal for some other reason?

Are there just random pipes everywhere?

### [Thread, continued, 12:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535968625001103363) · 182 likes

Idk I can imagine some pretty cool, hypermodern underground apartments

Pic above from this article about rich people building bunkers https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-doomsday-condos-2014-11?amp

### [Reply to @sentientlentils, 14:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535988087385374720) · 50 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @sentientlentils is no longer available.)_

Agree with #2. Idk on 1 - people have diverse preferences! It doesn't seem "hellish" to me any more than a 200 sq ft one would be.

Tbh assuming decent ventilation/air quality through other means. I would totally take a $1k/mo underground windowless appt in SF that would...

### [Thread, continued, 14:11 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535988163835043840) · 4 likes

otherwise go for $2.5k or $3k above ground

### [Tweet, 14:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1535999473586999297) · 13 likes

POV: you've figured out why you're getting a double digit number of notifications

To Mr. Buterin's 3.9M followers, hello!

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVD3JT2WUAE_bAP.jpg)

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 15:01 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536000860588756992) · 237 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, June 12, 2022:** Idk I can imagine some pretty cool, hypermodern underground apartments Pic above from this article about rich people building bunkers…

Since this is getting some attention, gonna shamelessly plug an excellent giving opportunity if you care about animal suffering🐠

The Fish Welfare Initiative has a $180k funding gap - super high altruistic return IMO! https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/donate

## Monday, June 13, 2022

### [Reply to @ConnorTabarrok, 07:12 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536245161512079360) · 58 likes

> **Connor J. Tabarrok 🏗🚀🌏 (@ConnorTabarrok):** Civil engineer here! There are some problems that emerge when we excavate deep underground, that increase costs significantly. I'll explain a couple of these in the thread below!

Interesting, thanks!

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 18:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536416412591624192) · 219 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, June 12, 2022:** Since this is getting some attention, gonna shamelessly plug an excellent giving opportunity if you care about animal suffering🐠 The Fish Welfare Initiative…

Guys the comments are closing in on the likes - dont let me get ratiooood😭😭😭

### [Quote tweet, 23:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536488952613453825) · 24 likes

Do I get a prize for getting ~.01% of people on Earth to read my quarter-baked random earnest question?

Also, I concede that the homelessness bit was unwise bc some might think I'm proposing we force/coerce homeless people to live underground

FWIW, I am not proposing this!

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVKwKsNWYAIS32g.jpg)

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** Serious question for #YIMBYTwitter: where height restrictions per se are the issue, why haven’t developers started building vertically but \*down\*, underground?
>
> I mean windowless apartments don’t sound ideal, but probably less bad than unaffordability and homelessness
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVDbUGTXEAAn6_Z.jpg)

## Tuesday, June 14, 2022

### [Reply to @noah_austin, 01:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536517082082320387) · 1 like

> **Noah Austin (@noah_austin):** This belongs in the Smart Replies to Dumb Tweets Hall of Fame

❤️

### [Reply to @AaronBergman18, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526695704014848)

_(The tweet being replied to by @AaronBergman18 is no longer available.)_

https://x.com/judeasspriest/status/1536464520146714626?s=20&t=CY3fYHbB70qI0y-c6LxjQA

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526697096527874) · 25 likes

(Warning: earnest commentary)

Suppose for a second that the underground building idea is bad-despicable, even.

Isn't asking a question that invites people to explain \*why\* it's bad \*the right thing to do\*?

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526702163156994) · 9 likes

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVLT7kfXsAEORZ-.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526704134565888) · 3 likes

L

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526705803907072) · 2 likes

oh shit they're on to me

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526707179536385) · 4 likes

thank you for actually answering my non-rhetorical question! There at least might be ways to make this work (like the big atrium thing down the middle lol), but at least it's a plausible factor for why building underground isn't and shouldn't happen https://x.com/ToriGlass/status/1536438050632241153?s=20&t=CY3fYHbB70qI0y-c6LxjQA

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526708853071875) · 11 likes

damn right - legalize normal building and y'all won't have to put up with my shitty takes! Win-win!

https://x.com/UrbanistOrg/status/1536501069689532417?s=20&t=CY3fYHbB70qI0y-c6LxjQA

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526710555951105) · 2 likes

https://x.com/nekoronogatari/status/1536429040986365953?s=20&t=CY3fYHbB70qI0y-c6LxjQA

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526712208498689) · 5 likes

My brother, I ask with all due respect: do you prefer New Taylor or Old? https://x.com/freedompimp2012/status/1536478072563564544?s=20&t=CY3fYHbB70qI0y-c6LxjQA

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526713944948737) · 6 likes

Fake! News! I have dug many, MANY holes at the beach

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526715312394242) · 2 likes

These are all reasonable points

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526716885147649) · 2 likes

😂

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526718390964225) · 3 likes

Ngl the "Georgetown guy dumb" ones are definitely my favorite genre

### [Thread, continued, 01:51 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536526719947001864) · 2 likes

alright, enough Twitter for one day lol

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 02:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536536041569624064) · 190 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, June 13, 2022:** Guys the comments are closing in on the likes - dont let me get ratiooood😭😭😭

To clarify:
1\) I don't think we should make poor/homeless people live underground
2\) A project like this would be so expensive that it would only be profitable if the units could then be sold for a fortune! The economic incentives point completely in the opposite direction!

### [Thread, continued, 02:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536536042752430081) · 94 likes

A more extreme, comical version of the same thing would be, like, having residential 747s circle around Manhattan. IRL this isn't profitable, ofc.

But if it \*was\*, that would have to be because some people were willing to pay a lot of money for space onboard!

### [Reply to @itsjairusjames, 02:43 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536539691092217857) · 7 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @itsjairusjames is no longer available.)_

Yeah, which was a bad call but not literally wrong, because I \*do\* stand by the claim that building luxury housing indirectly decreases homelessness by alleviating supply constraints

### [Reply, 04:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536570903039029249) · 1 like

_(The tweet being replied to is no longer available.)_

Nah I’m gonna convince everyone on Twitter I’m both right and one of the good guys, just watch

[![People Pit GIF](https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/FVL_Ft_XwAE4pqz.jpg)](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536570903039029249/photo/1) (gif, plays on X)

### [Reply to @RichardMCNgo, 05:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536575658851282946) · 6 likes

> **Richard Ngo (@RichardMCNgo):** For what tasks does practice improve performance the least?
>
> (Excluding tasks where there's very little variance between people, like tic-tac-toe.)

Sorta depends what you mean by “practice,” but I think relative performance at sports like bike racing is determined mostly by physiological factors with a smaller role for “practice” per se. I’d bet 95th percentile runners who rarely bike are almost all >90th percentile bikers

### [Thread, continued, 05:08 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536576366702903302) · 12 likes

I used to rock climb competitively, and there was a near obsession with intentional practice/technique. But I think I remember a couple studies showed that 90%+ of variation in performance (or something like that) was explained by finger strength, and I’d bet that’s mostly causal

### [Reply, 05:12 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536577392327774208) · 158 likes

I \*do\* identify as a random normal kid

But really, thanks! It could have been phrased better, but the question was entirely earnest, not rhetorical.

And some of the dunks are pretty funny tbh

### [Reply to @briannajegan, 15:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536735737323847681) · 18 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @briannajegan is no longer available.)_

Me at the bottom of the pile

Jk I’m all good

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVOVAgbWQAAWsL8.jpg)

## Wednesday, June 15, 2022

### [Tweet, 05:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536937592507224065) · 458 likes

Alignment chart, Twitter DMs edition

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVRJoFFXEAId__U.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 05:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536937595078422531) · 57 likes

If you see your message in the top six cells, I appreciate the thoughts and wish you a wonderful, enriching experience on Twitter dot com.

If you see your message on the bottom, thanks for providing me material for this chart!

### [Thread, continued, 05:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1536937596651196416) · 19 likes

In case you don't know what all those messages were referencing...

### [Reply to @SpencrGreenberg, 16:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537117086870380546) · 4 likes

> **Spencer Greenberg 🔍 (@SpencrGreenberg):** Longtermism says we should aim much altruistic effort toward the long-term future (eg since there could be >100s of billions of future people affected & civilization could last millions of years or go extinct based on choices now). What's your strongest critique of Longtermism?

There might be enough money committed to longtermist projects that, at the current margin, funding the best animal welfare initiatives is superior on simple expected value grounds.

Very unsure of this tho

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 19:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537157107992109058) · 12 likes

> **Aaron Bergman, June 15, 2022:** In case you don't know what all those messages were referencing...

First bluecheck retweet. Quick, gotta shill the fish fund before anyone notices it wasn't originally in this thread https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/donate

### [Thread, continued, 19:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537157109141450752) · 6 likes

^ If you QT'd, replied, or DMed something ~less than-admirable~, you might be interested in donating to the fish fund to cleanse your soul

### [Thread, continued, 19:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537157110282199040) · 4 likes

If you haven't, there's still time! Attach proof of donation to the Tweet/message, and I'll consider you fully inoculated against all ethical standards and norms of decency (only against me and only for like a week, it's not a lifetime supply)

### [Thread, continued, 19:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537157111574061056) · 4 likes

^As long as we're talking normal roasts and not like actual death threats, y'all can really do this lol

### [Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 19:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537159145845039106) · 5 likes

> **Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung):** knowing how viral it went would you have tweeted it again?

Selfishly, yeah haha.

Probably but not sure overall. Plausibly the sloppy phrasing was bad for YIMBYism? But also maybe that would be good because YIMBYism causes AI progress or more chicken/fish consumption? And plausibly a million other nth order effects? lol

### [Reply to @trevposts, 19:46 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537159682808242176) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @trevposts is no longer available.)_

I know 😂😂, almost as good as "some guy who deals with fish and wildlife" lmao

### [Reply to @besttrousers, 19:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537160455441068032) · 2 likes

> **Matt Darling 🌐🏗️ (@besttrousers):** What a weird takeaway from "Parasite".

Too bad that Boong Joon-ho isn't on Twitter to give his take :(

## Thursday, June 16, 2022

### [Reply to @realBurhanAzeem, 01:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537253114268491776) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @realBurhanAzeem is no longer available.)_

thanks again :)

### [Reply to @thatMikeBishop, 05:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537299863905394688) · 3 likes

> **Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@thatMikeBishop):** @AaronBergman18 How many followers did you get out of this though?

Not sure I think 150ish. But before the Diet Coke one I think I was <200 lol

### [Tweet, 05:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537311344311017473) · 29 likes

Idk, the fact that ~all of my Twitter influence has come from a single (unintentionally) outrage-inducing Tweet seems like decent evidence that the old, very unoriginal "Twitter amplifies outrage" take is correct

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVWbjzlWYAAz6Sl.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 05:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537311346064252928) · 6 likes

If you took all the times my 1,388 Tweets have been viewed and picked one at random, there's a ~90% chance you'd find someone reading the one people (mis!)interpreted as a call to make homeless people live underground.

### [Thread, continued, 05:49 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537311346974408704) · 6 likes

Showing my work: 1400 Tweets \* 200 impressions each (dragged down by a lot of very low-impression replies) +400k from the Coke thing=680k. The outrage one has 8M, and 8M/(8M+680k)=92%. Rounding down because there are probably a few replies with a couple thousand impressions.

### [Tweet, 08:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537350563473543168) · 47 likes

I hope all my new followers understand regression to the mean, because it’s downhill from here folks

### [Reply to @TaterTotient, 17:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537486955575123968) · 2 likes

> **mathematical potato (@TaterTotient):**
>
> (quoting @TaterTotient: if you enjoy someone's tweet and then follow them, you don't understand regression to the mean)

But for fat tailed distributions like Tweet influence, seeing someone’s viral Tweet is good evidence that their mean Tweet vitality (if not quality) is high!

Maybe in some situations, “regression to the median” is the real phenomenon?

## Friday, June 17, 2022

### [Reply to @MichaelTrazzi, 00:37 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537595171747004417) · 5 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @MichaelTrazzi is no longer available.)_

Lmao at altman upside down

### [Reply to @thatMikeBishop, 19:19 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537877494908432385)

> **Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@thatMikeBishop):** @AaronBergman18 On an unrelated note... write up what you learned about building underground, or link me to the thread if you did already.

Oof, the sad part is I didnt actually learn that much bc so much noise drowned out all the signal. Learned plenty about going viral on Twitter tho…

Also am I the one being subtweeted? Lol

### [Reply to @trevposts, 19:22 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537878392325947392) · 6 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @trevposts is no longer available.)_

That’s why QALY needs to be opt-out rather than opt-in. Make people who don’t want to see him check a box on their application

### [Reply to @frances__lorenz, 21:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537904081288564736) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)_

Gonna go ask FTX for $1B to make this happen :)

## Saturday, June 18, 2022

### [Reply to @frances__lorenz, 02:18 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537983048163086336) · 2 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)_

[![Futurama Reaction GIF](https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/FVgDbXDUUAAQQdu.jpg)](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1537983048163086336/photo/1) (gif, plays on X)

## Sunday, June 19, 2022

### [Quote tweet, 05:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1538396596580360192) · 15 likes

Did you know that if you say “yeah but I think it was the right call ex ante” any  time you lose money, you transform from a stupid retail investor to a wise, econo-rationalist sage

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** Yeah ik arguably I’m an idiot for investing at all and have indeed lost a bit of money, but don’t think it was the wrong call ex ante and don’t regret it

### [Reply to @Noahpinion, 19:14 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1538601061350531072) · 3 likes

> **Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion):** "A real human being"
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVoumtNUYAElqYE.jpg)
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVovADOUUAAr0vR.jpg)

I, Rex, who is not a robot nor an alien…

## Monday, June 20, 2022

### [Tweet, 04:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1538742950036914176) · 7 likes

Wrote a response to @dynomight7's awesome red team of my Diet Coke theory (see below), updating my theory to something more plausible.

Long story short, I now think the main story is phenylalanine→phenethylamine rather than phenylalanine→dopamine

https://aaronbergman.substack.com/p/contra-dynomight-contra-me-but-also

### [Reply, 19:52 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1538973166214823939) · 11 likes

Hypothesis: to guys, “want kids” means in some hypothetical future world, but to females it means something closer to “now or in the foreseeable future”

### [Reply to @reconfigurthing, 21:53 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1539003433067466754) · 2 likes

> **Elias Schmied (@reconfigurthing):** contrarianism isn't just a general personality trait. often it's also when someone sees that a narrative/framework is correct, but they themselves would be low status in it. so they can't fully agree with it, and hem and haw about pedantic details to see themselves as special

Me trying to defend contrarianism in a non-contrarian way in response to this tweet

[![Breakdown Stressed GIF](https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/FVujdpnXwAEmNup.jpg)](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1539003433067466754/photo/1) (gif, plays on X)

## Tuesday, June 21, 2022

### [Reply to @frances__lorenz, 09:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1539181835581890560) · 3 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @frances__lorenz is no longer available.)_

New cause area get @reconfigurthing to delete this Tweet

## Wednesday, June 22, 2022

### [Reply to @CRSegerie, 00:10 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1539400287202463744) · 9 likes

> **Charbel-Raphael (@CRSegerie):** My intellectual journey in AI safety.
>
> Have a good day
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVz_rLGXEAMJ6yj.jpg)

Oh shit Clippy is above water, guess Ive got a long ways to go

### [Reply to @ModeledBehavior, 20:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1539709487543631873) · 7 likes

> **Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior):** Question for YIMBY twitter, how do you feel about regulating the types of trees that are planted? I feel like developers go for trees that look good while young and grow fast, but then they end up being small because they are short-sighted. Big tall trees are better long run

Be careful asking questions of YIMBY twitter 😅

### [Reply to @ilex_ulmus, 22:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1539730000055881732) · 2 likes

> **Holly ⏸️ Elmore (@ilex_ulmus):** Introvert using the "what gives you energy vs taking energy" definition
>
> Ambivert by the "I can get really bubbly and social in the right circumstances but don't need much social interaction and \*do\* need to have alone time every day" definition

Exactly the same for me

## Friday, June 24, 2022

### [Tweet, 05:17 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540202479614394368) · 6 likes

After trying ~every permutation of 8 cables across 15 ports on 5 devices, my plan to make a widescreen curved monitor out of a normal one and two cheap portable ones from Alibaba can safely be deemed a failure

Either side one will work. Both will not 😢

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FV_koP8WAAEBP12.jpg)

### [Tweet, 20:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540425609649741824) · 6 likes

Bro it is absolute anarchy out here on Craigslist/FB Marketplace

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWCw7B4XwAY-waR.jpg)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWCw7CIXoAMDMIo.jpg)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWCw7BwXkAMyJUy.jpg)

## Saturday, June 25, 2022

### [Tweet, 21:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540808675648053250) · 7 likes

I might give my blog (currently http://aaronbergman.substack.com) a new name! If you'd like to help me choose, here's a ranked choice voting ballot - thanks!
https://www.rcv123.org/ballot/5apMAiw2WjyS7CfVPvwfWC

### [Thread, continued, 21:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540808676876894208) · 1 like

Whichever domain I end up choosing, I'll pay Substack's $50 (one time) fee to make that the actual url

In the mean time, http://halfbakedtakes.com redirects to it!

### [Thread, continued, 21:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540808677933858820) · 2 likes

A lot of good domains are surprisingly affordable, even with .com at the end. http://domains.google.com makes it easy to search. http://halfbakedtakes.com, for instance, is only $12/year.

Might be worth considering if you have a substack or something like it!

### [Thread, continued, 22:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540825642610167811) · 1 like

http://duckemoji.com is not having a good day 😢 🦆

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWIcdILWAAI7a5e.jpg)

### [Thread, continued, 22:34 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540825867311620096) · 1 like

live results

https://www.rcv123.org/results/5apMAiw2WjyS7CfVPvwfWC/gvccwUGDy1ERdpGjn8j2q2

### [Reply to @MatthewJBar, 23:02 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540832947590369280) · 1 like

> **Matthew Barnett (@MatthewJBar):** Does anyone have any good book recommendations for learning about the history of modern China, especially after Mao?

https://www.amazon.com/Party-Secret-China8217-Communist-Rulers/dp/0061708763

### [Quote tweet, 23:52 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540845430963113987) · 8 likes

Remember to get feedback from people outside your intellectual bubble

(from my sister, posted with permission)

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWIud5PXkAAkq42.jpg)

> **Quoting Aaron Bergman 🔍 (@AaronBergman18):** live results
>
> https://www.rcv123.org/results/5apMAiw2WjyS7CfVPvwfWC/gvccwUGDy1ERdpGjn8j2q2

## Sunday, June 26, 2022

### [Thread, continued, 01:19 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540867372357193730) · 4 likes

On the bright side, if I choose this, the site will appeal to weed enthusiasts, cookie dough-infused ice cream fans, and rationalists alike

### [Reply to his own earlier tweet, 01:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540871648022257664) · 1 like

> **Aaron Bergman, June 25, 2022:** live results https://www.rcv123.org/results/5apMAiw2WjyS7CfVPvwfWC/gvccwUGDy1ERdpGjn8j2q2

The people have spoken and, assuming no Jan 6-level disruption to the election, Aaron's Blog will soon be named Half Baked Takes and hosted at http://halfbakedtakes.com!

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWJGFkMWIAEEhTD.png)

### [Thread, continued, 01:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540872099388170243) · 1 like

Glad I did this, because I was initially gonna go with http://bitethebullet.xyz lol

### [Reply to @AndyMasley, 01:54 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1540876090620755971) · 2 likes

> **Andy Masley (@AndyMasley):** @AaronBergman18 @trevorjtweets Was also rooting for a bitethebullet variant

should I storm the capitol and install an unelected url?

## Tuesday, June 28, 2022

### [Reply to @MatthewJBar, 21:33 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1541897548071313409) · 10 likes

> **Matthew Barnett (@MatthewJBar):** This post is from @natalia\_\_coelho

If @natalia\_\_coelho ever comes for one of my theories, God help me and it had been nice knowing you all

## Wednesday, June 29, 2022

### [Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 13:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1542141895018778625) · 3 likes

> **Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung):** In what is one of the hottest takes I've ever seen, @bryan_caplan argues that human smugglers are morally good.
>
> Why is he wrong?
>
> https://betonit.substack.com/p/immigration-charities-should-blame?r=18mntl&utm_medium=ios
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWZ6aL4WQAEBK5V.jpg)

This…doesn’t seem like that hot of a take to me, simply because illegal immigration isn’t immoral and should not in fact be illegal

## Thursday, June 30, 2022

### [Reply to @dwarkesh_sp, 20:59 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1542613722149027841) · 2 likes

> **Dwarkesh Patel (@dwarkesh_sp):** 1/5 There will be many more effective altruist billionaires
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWgT8IwUsAIbhSi.png)

Sure hope you’re right

### [Reply to @StefanFSchubert, 21:05 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1542615306836889600) · 3 likes

> **Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert):** I'd like peer review on the EA forum
>
> [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWhv2UHXgAACi5E.jpg)

I don’t even want peer review in academia. Seems to mostly be a mechanism for preserving status ordering (of both ideas and people)

### [Reply to @pli_cachete, 23:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1542654720564756480) · 27 likes

_(The tweet being replied to by @pli_cachete is no longer available.)_

Snap a homie “chick no. 681” while she’s looking at ur phone

### [Reply to @NathanB60857242, 23:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1542655234744492037) · 2 likes

> **Nathan Barnard (@NathanB60857242):** But apparently by brain was effectively reset because I've just come much closer to solving the problem I've been working on for the past week
>
> (quoting @NathanB60857242: played civ 5 for nearly four hours straight and now my eyes hurt)

New cause area

### [Reply to @robbensinger, 23:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1542655295222054912) · 3 likes

> **Rob Bensinger ⏹️ (@robbensinger):** Be nicer and also ruder.

That’s the 🔍 motto

### [Reply, 23:48 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1542656380447989761) · 19 likes

I call bs. That’s a freshwater cow

---

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