# Aaron Bergman's tweets, March 2022 Every public tweet, reply, quote tweet and retweet that Aaron Bergman (@AaronBergman18 on X, formerly Twitter) posted in March 2022 and has not deleted: 77 posts, oldest first, times in UTC. Each heading links to the original post on X. When Aaron replies to or quotes someone, their tweet appears as a blockquote with their name; those words are theirs, and everything outside the blockquotes is Aaron's. This page is one month of [the complete archive of Aaron Bergman's tweets](https://abergman.com/tweets), which updates automatically every few hours. Previous month: [February 2022](https://abergman.com/tweets/2022-02). Next month: [April 2022](https://abergman.com/tweets/2022-04). ## Tuesday, March 1, 2022 ### [Reply to @ragipsoylu, 18:30 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1498727442227380224) · 1 like > **Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu):** ⚡️⚡️ Russian soldiers who lay down their weapons will be granted amnesty and money — Ukrainian Defense Minister Did @eigenrobot just win Ukraine the war? ### [Tweet, 21:07 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1498766964096966656) · 7 likes You listen to podcasts at 2x? That’s cool, I listen at .02x to avoid hearing the sound of my own voice https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/80k-after-hours-philosophy-of-the-80000-hours-podcast/ ### [Thread, continued, 21:09 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1498767403462934529) · 7 likes Thanks @robertwiblin and @KeiranJHarris for speaking with us! ## Thursday, March 3, 2022 ### [Reply to @replyallguy, 19:21 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1499465021914558473) · 3 likes > **I take you seriously (@replyallguy):** People seem to consistently overestimate everything: > > https://www.tedsanders.com/do-not-expect-the-unexpected/ Almost 1% of us are murdered? That’s way higher than I would have guessed ## Friday, March 4, 2022 ### [Tweet, 05:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1499618488045998084) · 1 like Ferdinand de Saussure!" gang. Falsificationism and empiricism are overrated, fight me. https://www.qzzr.com/c/quiz/49304/17d1b70c-c863-4d2c-a5ed-4968c92773cf ## Saturday, March 5, 2022 ### [Reply to @metakuna, 00:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1499911813496029188) · 3 likes > **metakuna (14/100 blog posts) (@metakuna):** tell that to the Dutch tulip market Tulips are still worth \*something\* ### [Reply to @mattyglesias, 19:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1500192293084663819) · 2 likes _(The tweet being replied to by @mattyglesias is no longer available.)_ Sir this is the one thing standing between us and panic/overwhelmed hospitals/societal collapse ## Sunday, March 6, 2022 ### [Reply to @notanastronomer, 16:20 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1500506696527106050) · 5 likes _(The tweet being replied to by @notanastronomer is no longer available.)_ Maybe it’s in rubles ## Monday, March 7, 2022 ### [Reply to @lee_kovarsky, 01:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1500644035563859973) · 2 likes _(The tweet being replied to by @lee_kovarsky is no longer available.)_ It’s literally completely possible lol ### [Tweet, 08:08 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1500745126880108546) · 12 likes After all this, it’s gonna be pretty funny if we go extinct bc the bees die out ### [Reply to @finmoorhouse, 20:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1500933445723246599) · 2 likes > **Fin Moorhouse (@finmoorhouse):** Big news: @effective_ideas has officially launched the second golden age of blogging! > > https://effectiveideas.org/ Oh shit ### [Reply to @peterwildeford, 20:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1500934885481107457) · 4 likes > **Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 (@peterwildeford):** What’s the best way to start a blog these days? Is it just substack? Substack is the \*easiest\* afaik, which might mean it’s the best place to begin. The standardized aesthetic is both a blessing and a curse ## Tuesday, March 8, 2022 ### [Reply to @Noahpinion, 00:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1500994719219912704) · 4 likes > **Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion):** What the fuck > > (quoting @GeringTuvia: "Why has Ukraine become Jewified, and why has Israel put up with it? It's because Wall Street wanted to plant a quasi-Israel in this problematic European region" - Beihang University Professor Zhang Wenmu offers his take on Ukraine. 1/5) “We forced an AI to read the works of 10,000 midwit alt-right pseudo-intellectuals” ### [Reply to @eigenrobot, 02:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1501014869675544576) · 4 likes > **eigenrobot (@eigenrobot):** @Aella_Girl i think it probably depends alot on which wave you're talking about > > my guess is there's perhaps a generation gap What was the median age at vibecamp? Trying to figure out how much younger I am than y’all ### [Reply to @mattparlmer, 08:30 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1501113143975718920) · 2 likes > **mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 (@mattparlmer):** Evergreen tweet > > (quoting @random_scrub: YOU ARE HERE) Kinda, but only if you understand that physical limits stop the rice from accumulating after a few squares https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/ ### [Reply to @fronkonymous, 17:47 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1501253360606855172) · 4 likes > **frönk 🏳️‍⚧️⚧️🏳️‍🌈 (@fronkonymous):** Omg. Someone on Reddit asked the community there what VibeCamp was and it’s hilarious to read through how it seems to the outside world. https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/t60mc7/what_is_vibecamp/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Lol I wouldn’t call r/slatestarcodex the “outside world” ## Thursday, March 10, 2022 ### [Tweet, 03:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1501764911759777792) · 62 likes Did I solve the ELK challenge? No. But did I win an ELK prize for beating ARC's counterexamples? No. But did my proposal become an "honorable mention?" Also no. But did my proposal make it to the \*non\*-honorable mentions section of the post? Yes! https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/zjMKpSB2Xccn9qi5t/elk-prize-results#Train_in_simulation ### [Thread, continued, 03:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1501765071688679430) · 4 likes If for some reason you want to see the actual proposal, DM me! ### [Reply, 15:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1501941817318670339) · 3 likes Ay congrats! That’s legit pretty impressive IMO ### [Reply to @economeager, 19:23 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502002203703267331) · 1 like > **Rafe Meager (they/them) (@economeager):** nothing will make me lose respect for you faster than if your study abstract says you have a gajillion observations but in fact the key variable you study only varies at a much, much higher level than these "observations" (so e.g. "treatment assignment" is at the cluster level) What if I like robbed a store and stole a kid’s ice cream cone, ### [Reply to @economeager, 19:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502002612731842562) · 2 likes > **Rafe Meager (they/them) (@economeager):** @AaronBergman18 nobody ever asks if the kid had bad vibes We’ll assign vibes randomly at the neighborhood level (n=100 million) ## Friday, March 11, 2022 ### [Reply to @AndyMasley, 00:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502078508679536641) · 2 likes > **Andy Masley (@AndyMasley):** Tooting my own horn here but I just found out I'm the third image search result for "vectors" honestly one of the things I'm most proud of in my career so far > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNhTb1nXMAIZPE6.png) 👑 ### [Reply to @BDMurray, 03:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502123537104052227) · 2 likes > **Bennett Murray (@BDMurray):** Found a tank trap at a roadblock in Kyiv today with a plaque indicating that it's a WW2 antique brought out from a museum exhibit. > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNhFIyzWYAcO8Y-.jpg) If I had to pick one piece of “art” that goes hard, this would be it (the whole setup, including plaque and background) ### [Tweet, 04:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502143522249613312) · 15 likes Holy shit, listening to @SBF_FTX on Cowen's podcast and realized that his story is an \*almost-perfect\* vignette to illustrate the dangers (and potential) of superintelligent AI. https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/sam-bankman-fried/ (1/4) ### [Thread, continued, 04:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502143524057329664) · 12 likes Sam: \- Is super smart \- Acts rationally so as to achieve his goals \- Which involves accumulating resources \- Which he does by leveraging existing institutions/structures to extend his causal influence over the (financial) world (2/4) ### [Thread, continued, 04:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502143525466648576) · 9 likes \- Which is successful (because he is so smart), leaving him with control over a ton of resources (quick calculation says ~.0014% of all wealth on earth) \- Which he deploys rationally so as to achieve his goals (3/4) ### [Thread, continued, 04:45 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502143530101358593) · 7 likes The only differences are that 1\) He's <6 standard deviations above mean intelligence (no offense @SBF_FTX) 2\) He's aligned with human values, thereby also demonstrating how \*well\* transformative AI can conceivably go! (4/4) ## Saturday, March 12, 2022 ### [Reply to @reconfigurthing, 04:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502504775937675268) · 4 likes > **Elias Schmied (@reconfigurthing):** @tszzl take a break see how it feels two types of people ### [Reply to @growing_daniel, 05:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502511348428779522) · 2 likes > **Daniel (@growing_daniel):** This has been the most taxing part of watching Ukraine footage They’re into us ### [Reply to @TristanSevers, 17:03 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502691657480916995) · 3 likes > **Azathoth Liberation Front (@TristanSevers):** @eigenrobot Donald Trump lol He said “effectively” ### [Reply to @alexeyguzey, 21:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502765580134367234) > **Alexey Guzey (@alexeyguzey):** people are waking up (literally) > > note how naturally these changes occur: you simply get out of the psyop, your expectations of what you are supposed to feel change--and then you simply start to feel differently. > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNrZ4P9XEAMvNjY.png) > (quoting @alexeyguzey: I used to sleep the normal 7.5 hours a day. Over the last 180 days I have slept an average of 5 hours 57 minutes per day. So, after 2 years of experimentation and occasional deep dives into the scientific literature, here are my theses on sleep: https://guzey.com/theses-on-sleep/) Not sure what your recommendation is specifically. I wouldn’t think that intentional sleep deprivation is adaptive in the same way that, say, fasting is because afaik there was no way to do wake oneself up before modern tech ### [Reply to @nominalthoughts, 23:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1502781494426750978) · 1 like > **Jason Harrison (@nominalthoughts):** Assigning presidents a grade just on how cool they are > > Biden: B- > Trump: B+/A- (funny) > Obama: A+ (funny + black) > Bush 43: C- > Clinton: C- > Bush 41: C+ > Reagan: A- > Carter: B- > Ford: D > Nixon: A > LBJ: A > Kennedy: B- I’d rather hang out with Biden than Trump ## Sunday, March 13, 2022 ### [Reply to @RichardMCNgo, 17:32 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503061541800890369) · 2 likes > **Richard Ngo (@RichardMCNgo):** The EA/rationalist community has both the strongest transactional norms I've seen (willingness to assign monetary values to favours) and also the least concern for who has which money (it's used for the same causes regardless). > > Either is great. Both at once is weird... As long as the latter dial isn’t set to it’s maximum, I don’t think there’s any internal inconsistency. As other commenters mention, prices are a credible signal of how much you want something done - as long as you lose \*some\* utility by giving up your own ### [Reply to @tszzl, 17:34 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503062050448228355) · 3 likes _(The tweet being replied to by @tszzl is no longer available.)_ Best part is calling him “bro” ### [Reply to @finmoorhouse, 18:15 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503072193676296195) · 2 likes > **Fin Moorhouse (@finmoorhouse):** I wrote about some EA projects I'd like to see — > > https://www.finmoorhouse.com/writing/ea-projects/ Awesome! Only disagreement is that I think the s-process strongly dominates quadratic funding https://survivalandflourishing.fund/s-process ### [Reply, 19:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503089962778042373) · 1 like _(The tweet being replied to is no longer available.)_ I mean I think real source is “i \\equiv\\sqrt{-1}” ie you can define a constant to be whatever you want ## Monday, March 14, 2022 ### [Reply to @MWStory, 03:52 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503217450778779652) · 8 likes _(The tweet being replied to by @MWStory is no longer available.)_ And the number who have time/energy to create ### [Reply to @calebwatney, 16:37 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503410087163047936) · 8 likes > **Caleb Watney (@calebwatney):** 👀 > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN0tmN-XwAUO0s9.jpg) Depends who the “you” is! Emergent Ventures applicants aren’t like a slightly skewed sample of smart young people” - they’re a sample of the 10% most predisposed to be into EA. Id bet self-identified EAs would \*overestimate\* the % of smart young people who also identify as an EA ### [Tweet, 20:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503471487038152704) · 5 likes Ok hear me out: Fight to federally legalize polyamorous marriage -> marry everyone in the developing world -> de facto immigration liberalization -> cut poverty and double the world economy 🌐🌐🌐 ## Tuesday, March 15, 2022 ### [Reply to @nickcammarata, 19:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503809863478087681) · 2 likes > **Nick (@nickcammarata):** I want to be more pro gov and regulation and stuff than I am today, what should I read? The Entrepreneurial State https://smile.amazon.com/dp/0857282522/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_glt_i_G2E4C221N3TMYGMBZP4G ## Wednesday, March 16, 2022 ### [Reply to @PradyuPrasad, 01:32 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503906969496834048) · 4 likes > **Pradyumna 🇸🇬 (@PradyuPrasad):** I need a good book on Chinese monetary policy and reserves management. Do you know of any? Dude you’re in high school, you don’t \*need\* a book on Chinese monetary policy lmao ### [Reply to @PradyuPrasad, 02:28 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1503921061175472129) · 2 likes > **Pradyumna 🇸🇬 (@PradyuPrasad):** @AaronBergman18 I mean I'm in national service now... Right - now you \*definitely\* need this book ### [Reply to @TheBaltimoreSon, 19:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1504174783751233537) · 4 likes > **NACARA Delevigne (@TheBaltimoreSon):** @replyallguy @AaronBergman18 @StefanFSchubert I’m pretty sure the homicide rate in the US is not 70 per 100,000. In 2018 it was 5.0 per 100K. It has probably risen to 7 not 70. And 7 out of 100K is much lower than 1% Yeah, the 1% means that ~1% of deaths are caused by murder ### [Reply to @DogIsABot, 21:29 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1504208138651713538) · 7 likes > **DogBot (@DogIsABot):** @tszzl remember getting into intense political arguments with my grade 6 teacher. very cringe. No, based ## Thursday, March 17, 2022 ### [Reply to @IXianVernius, 18:54 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1504531706983989250) · 1 like > **The IXian🥃🧭 (@IXianVernius):** This may not be a meme but it is absolutely a joke. U mean the reverse, no? ## Saturday, March 19, 2022 ### [Reply to @YIMBY_Princeton, 13:25 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1505173720645709827) · 3 likes > **Central NJ Yimby 🇺🇸🚲🏙 (@YIMBY_Princeton):** Was walking around my neighborhood tonight with some friends and my 5-yo daughter met a girl her own age who she quickly declared was “her best friend ever”. I met the kid’s dad and I asked him where they lived. He said “Avalon Bay”. i.e. the development I YIMBYed hard in 2013!! W ### [Reply to @fermatslibrary, 14:52 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1505195563142295556) · 18 likes > **Fermat's Library (@fermatslibrary):** Here's an interesting limit > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOI9DP9WQAsWCnJ.png) ![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOOHYr_XsAA_CKc.jpg) ### [Tweet, 19:26 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1505264402932584454) · 1 like After too long a hiatus, new post about my experience making a podcast episode with @robertwiblin and @KeiranJHarris, which appeared on @80000Hours' new secondary feed a few weeks ago (linking below) https://aaronbergman.substack.com/p/rob-and-keiran-on-the-philosophy-3f7?s=w ## Sunday, March 20, 2022 ### [Reply to @thisisbenphelps, 00:24 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1505339569142743046) · 19 likes > **Ben Phelps (@thisisbenphelps):** Remember that time California judges ordered UC Berkeley to cut its enrollment for "environmental reasons" under CEQA and then like 2 days later the state changed the law to override them Hello, I don’t know who you are but thought you might appreciate that your profile pic is one of the first things I posted to Instagram almost nine years ago ![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOQKXBbXwAMoBOI.jpg) ### [Reply to @dwarkesh_sp, 01:08 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1505350549838966784) · 2 likes > **Dwarkesh Patel (@dwarkesh_sp):** The myth of the myth of the well read person > > https://dwarkeshpatel.com/well-read/ > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOOgIYQXoAo2eI2.jpg) But do you think this gives the well read person a meaningful advantage above and beyond the traits that caused him/her to study so much? In other words, are there steeply diminishing marg returns to general knowledge? ### [Reply to @mattyglesias, 20:29 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1505642596344999941) _(The tweet being replied to by @mattyglesias is no longer available.)_ Lol, like asking “should people do the right thing or the wrong thing” and only 52% say “right” ## Monday, March 21, 2022 ### [Reply to @Scientific_Bird, 15:09 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1505924465443708932) · 8 likes _(The tweet being replied to by @Scientific_Bird is no longer available.)_ I mean linear extrapolation probably overestimates the true counterfactual. I assume even very overweight people eventually plateau ## Tuesday, March 22, 2022 ### [Reply to @JacobPeacock1, 16:42 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506310350416846853) · 2 likes > **Jacob Peacock 🔎 (@JacobPeacock1):** Highly ranked @Metaculus forecasters find "54% probability that less than 100,000 metric tons of cultured meat \[...\] sold at any price in a 12-month period before the end of 2051." New research by @NJDullaghan & @LinchZhang @RethinkPriors :( ## Wednesday, March 23, 2022 ### [Reply to @depthsofwiki, 02:31 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506458618702532613) · 2 likes > **depths of wikipedia! (@depthsofwiki):** career where you reject men and then tell the government > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOfhV4UXEAEMpKR.jpg) Arbitrage finds a way ### [Reply to @AnonRetriever, 12:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506610734414848005) · 2 likes > **retriever (@AnonRetriever):** @metakuna Well the consequence (reduced animal suffering) is still there so I think it should be encouraged :) If vegan than yes. But there are a bunch of people replacing beef with chicken bc climate which is just really bad for animal suffering ### [Reply to @keirbradwell, 12:41 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506612140660211715) · 1 like > **Keir Bradwell (@keirbradwell):** my own personal beautiful iceberg > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOebAjoWYAU0drc.jpg) Street artists - care to explain? ### [Reply to @xsphi, 12:57 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506616141019598856) · 2 likes > **tess (@xsphi):** this, but unironically > > (quoting @plumnotes: Here's a cool thought experiment: what if killing gay people was really fun? whoa! hold your horses! it's just a philosophical exercise buddy, calm down. that mental resistance you feel means we've hit on an opportunity for growth. keep an open mind, you might learn something ;)) Also, this is a totally reasonable thought experiment because it implies that killing people is bad even if it’s fun. That’s the right lesson! ### [Thread, continued, 12:58 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506616423506116611) · 2 likes Would be different (though not necessarily wrong to consider) if the thought exp was crafted in such a way to be ethically misleading ### [Reply to @keirbradwell, 13:39 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506626610983800840) · 1 like > **Keir Bradwell (@keirbradwell):** take up lots of valuable public space without paying rent like anyone else would (see especially the ones who do giant chalk drawings and the like) Ya fair enough but not sure it deserves its place that far down lol ### [Reply, 13:40 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506627045945757702) · 2 likes This is the answer right here ### [Reply to @PradyuPrasad, 13:59 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506631619083395091) · 24 likes > **Pradyumna 🇸🇬 (@PradyuPrasad):** my theory of genius in the internet age: a lot of young kids are very smart, but their time is taken away by school and other unproductive obligations. if you're a kid who can do 12th grade math at age 12, the best thing possible for you is that you self learn it on youtube Eh IQ isn’t highly correlated enough with conscientiousness to make this work, I think. Getting yourself to actually learn stuff online without social pressure externally-imposed expectations and deadlines requires a ton of executive function ### [Thread, continued, 13:59 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506631828844785666) · 3 likes I mean it will for some of those 12 year olds, but genius or intelligence alone isn’t a sufficient condition ## Thursday, March 24, 2022 ### [Tweet, 00:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506782991586111493) · 3 likes (CW: shilling for trillion dollar corporation) Getting a new laptop after five yrs, and it's weird that the MacBook Pro's screen brightness is basically not advertised at all. It's literally 2.5 times brighter (per sq in) than the 2017 Air and 4 times brighter than some laptops. ### [Thread, continued, 00:00 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1506782992714326021) · 1 like Like idc all that much how fancy or fast or modern all the hardware inside is. I want to be able to to fry my own irises with visible-spectrum radiation if I so choose! And basically no other laptop models come close in this regard ## Friday, March 25, 2022 ### [Reply to @prerat, 02:43 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1507186271302602759) · 7 likes > **prerat (@prerat):** a mysterious economist approaches you, offering a bet > > flip a coin > • if heads, you gain 50% > • if tails, you lose 40% > > assuming you're not particularly risk-averse or anti-betting in general, is this a good bet? > > what if you could play 100 times in a row? FYI the reason the second doesn’t hold up is because it’s implicitly telling you to consider the median result instead of the mean. Consider two consecutive flips starting with $1. Outcomes are: 2.25 with p=.25; .9 with p=.5; .36 with p=.25. ### [Reply to @NathanpmYoung, 15:06 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1507373392672051205) · 2 likes > **Nathan 🔎 (@NathanpmYoung):** Often calling 1000 1 and 1 1000 is a more damaging error. > > It does more harm to mix up good and great good than small goods and evils. I’d argue mixing -1 and -1000 is worst of all ### [Reply to @keithwynroe, 19:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1507435494937927690) · 2 likes > **Keith Wynroe (@keithwynroe):** @AaronBergman18 @prerat Kelly Criterion maximises the median and it’s pretty popular and influential in finance, has a lot of nice properties. Wouldn’t say that line of thinking “doesn’t hold up” Yeah basically agree. I was taking “not particularly risk averse” to mean “totally risk neutral,” but admit it could mean instead “a typical degree of risk aversion” in which case median is a better proxy for utility ## Saturday, March 26, 2022 ### [Reply to @mechanical_monk, 00:36 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1507516710626156544) · 2 likes > **monk (@mechanical_monk):** dearth of alcohol > > no mixers > > too lazy to go convenience store > > wat do > > then, stroke of genius > > vodka + milk + maple syrup > > good shit > > cheers brothers > > [image attached](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOucULRX0A0MIgr.jpg) These are linearly independent in the space of edible liquids ### [Reply to @Ben_Reinhardt, 17:27 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1507771279138566147) · 3 likes > **Ben Reinhardt (@Ben_Reinhardt):** I have a weirdly strong conviction that people consistently overestimate what can be achieved in five years but we underestimate what can be achieved in 20. > > Is this a real phenomena? Is there any evidence behind it? Don’t have empirical evidence, but I’m guessing it’s the result of a mental model in which people force a linear model on top of an exponential curve, so the line is above the curve until, say, t=10 years and then the order switches ### [Reply to @_fat_ugly_rat_, 17:38 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1507773954890555392) · 2 likes _(The tweet being replied to by @_fat_ugly_rat_ is no longer available.)_ Cool but this should probably include a scale/legend. Something tells me a big difference in color doesn’t correspond to that large of a quantitative difference ## Monday, March 28, 2022 ### [Reply to @Aella_Girl, 16:17 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1508478404408061956) · 6 likes > **Aella (@Aella_Girl):** schools should include a class called Truth Is Hard, where u get bombarded with examples of confused eyewitnesses, incorrect public outrages, studies that failed to replicate, super convincing arguments that fall apart with one additional fact u didn't expect, etc. And some of the reverse! Arguments/stories that sound literally unbelievable but are totally sound/true ## Tuesday, March 29, 2022 ### [Reply to @FTC, 16:46 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1508848162005565453) · 20 likes > **FTC (@FTC):** New: FTC sues Intuit for its deceptive Turbotax “free” filing campaign. Commission seeks an immediate halt to Intuit’s deceptive ads for “free” products: https://bit.ly/3NGDVUm Get ‘em [![Supa Hot GIF](https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/FPCBZ1vXoAcNS9b.jpg)](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1508848162005565453/photo/1) (gif, plays on X) ### [Reply to @tszzl, 20:04 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1508898000839622670) · 4 likes > **roon (@tszzl):** introduced myself yesterday as a “AI normie in the sam altman sense” What percent of the English-speaking world population would understand this sentence? ## Wednesday, March 30, 2022 ### [Tweet, 23:13 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1509307883896418307) · 14 likes Cool book but I mostly just want to know whether capitalizing the T was an intentional or strategic decision @willmacaskill https://www.amazon.com/dp/1541618629/ref=cm_sw_r_awdo_2YM76XF6E492FNQ9B6D3 ### [Thread, continued, 23:16 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1509308685444685833) · 4 likes Hmm ![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPIkP_QXEAsQ4ZA.jpg) ## Thursday, March 31, 2022 ### [Reply, 21:44 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1509647948933705729) · 3 likes This can and should be a meme format ### [Thread, continued, 21:56 UTC](https://x.com/AaronBergman18/status/1509650887215665157) · 10 likes ![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPNbdtyXIAMKFks.jpg) --- End of March 2022. 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